August 16, 2025
Chase Elliott largely fell out of contention for the regular-season championship unless his teammate William Byron crashes out of one of the two remaining regular season races after an inexplicably bad run at Watkins Glen, where he used to dominate but instead had his streak of top-20 finishes every race this season snapped. After his relatively recent win at Atlanta and dominant run at Dover, it's probably too soon to say he is trending downward, but his recent runs don't inspire confidence. Elliott is very consistent at Richmond, where he's never finished worse than 15th since 2017, but he also hasn't had many great runs and has only led more than five laps twice and has never been a massive factor for the win. In a 400-lap race, lap-leader points and fastest-lap points become more important, and he likely won't get many of those. The fact that he outqualified his teammates in fifth makes him a worse DFS choice than you might think.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
August 16, 2025
On paper, Kyle Larson looks like a must-have to start for DFS play at Richmond since you do not get this many opportunities for place-differential points for him since he rarely qualifies as poorly as 30th. The problem is that after dominating the first third of the season, he has been very sloppy and kind of slow ever since. After crashing out of both Memorial Day races due to unforced errors, his head has not seemed to be in the game, and it seems like he might be letting his social-media hecklers get into his head. If he doesn't make any mistakes, he could absolutely drive through the field and win, and not starting him would look rather stupid. However, given that he seems to have had more mistakes than great runs over the summer and costs $10,500, it's probably better to stay away.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
August 16, 2025
In a year when no one has really impressed, William Byron has probably been the best NASCAR Cup Series driver as he leads the points by nearly one full race and has also been the most dominant driver with 910 laps led. Although he's good everywhere, he's only finished in the top five once at Richmond, that being a third-place finish in the first Next Gen race in 2022 where he led 122 laps before Denny Hamlin sneaked past him with five laps left on much fresher tires. Byron does not normally qualify as poorly as 14th, so you have to consider him somewhat since he could win anywhere and no one would be surprised. However, he also costs $10,400, which is pretty pricy for a driver who is not likely the outright favorite to win. While he is probably a better choice than his Hendrick teammates, he is too expensive to start for DFS given his inconsistent record at a track that tends not to have much attrition.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
August 16, 2025
Ryan Preece is on the pole for Saturday night's Cook Out 400, and with just two races left until the cutoff for this year's Playoffs, he will need to have a major performance if he wants to feel good about his postseason chances next weekend at Daytona. Of course, a win at Richmond would lock him in no matter what happens at Daytona. Preece truly excels on short, flat tracks, and he posted a fifth-place finish here at Richmond in 2023 while he was with Stewart-Haas Racing. This season at similar tracks, he has a 15th-place finish at Phoenix, a seventh at Martinsville, and a fifth-place result to his credit--all of which came after starting 21st or worse in those races. Preece should be able to parlay his track position to start the race and his track type prowess into a good run on Saturday night. In terms of DFS, he's a pretty cheap option at $7,600 on DraftKings, and an early dominating stint from the drop of the green flag should help Preece easily hit value.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: ifantasyrace
August 16, 2025
After a terrible first 16 races when he sat 32nd in the championship with five crash DNFs, Brad Keselowski has suddenly looked like a playoff contender in the weeks since he and his crew chief Jeremy Bullins have developed chemistry. However, it will be too little, too late to make the playoffs unless he can grab a win in the last two races of the regular season. Given the speed he had at Atlanta and especially the very similar Iowa two weeks ago when he had his best run as an owner-driver, that's a definite possibility. Keselowski starts 6th behind his pole-winning teammate Ryan Preece but ahead of his previously faster teammate Chris Buescher. He typically is the best Richmond driver among the RFK Racing trio with two wins and 1,280 laps led here, but he only significantly contended once in the Next Gen era in 2023. Nonetheless, he seems intensely motivated to win and after his Iowa run, that's a definite possibility.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
August 16, 2025
Richmond Raceway has been a bit of a struggle for Chase Briscoe throughout his career. In eight total starts here with Stewart-Haas Racing, Briscoe never cracked the top 10, although he does have a couple of 11th-place finishes to his credit. With him moving over to Joe Gibbs Racing this season, many people expected Briscoe to instantly gain a step at "The Action Track," but that hasn't really been the case this weekend, as the No. 19 Toyota was pedestrian in practice and Briscoe qualified back in 19th-place. He was interviewed after qualifying and noted that he felt like a "fish out of water" at this race track. Although there is some Place Differential upside for Chase Briscoe in Saturday night's Cook Out 400, he's probably not worth the $9,500 salary on DraftKings, as he's unlikely to dominate much, if at all.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: Driver Averages
August 16, 2025
After years of mediocrity at Richmond, Chris Buescher has typically been very good here in the Next Gen era, winning from 26th in 2023. Although that was the only race he led, he also threatened for the win in the 2022 summer race where he finished third and he finished ninth in the spring race last year. However, he hasn't been as fast in general this year as he was from 2022-2024 and his teammates Ryan Preece and Brad Keselowski both look faster and like potential winning contenders, which is very worrisome for a driver sitting on the playoff bubble who has also seemed to frequently lose speed in the later stages of races this year. Given RFK Racing's speed, all three cars will likely run well and Buescher is certainly worthy of DFS consideration since he is qualifying worse than his teammates, but he's also more expensive than Preece, which probably makes Preece the better choice.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
August 16, 2025
People tend to think of Ty Gibbs as a short track racer more than they probably should because Bristol is arguably his best track, but he has been nowhere near as fast at Richmond and has never finished better than ninth here or led at a track where Joe Gibbs Racing has won 19 times. Furthermore, Gibbs' qualifying position of 23rd is his worst ever at this track. He qualified poorly enough for a team that has frequently dominated here that you have to give him some measure of consideration, particularly because he only costs $7,000 and will probably be intensely motivated to win his way into the playoffs, but he just doesn't seem to be fast enough here to significantly contend for a win.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
August 16, 2025
Although Ross Chastain's consistently poor qualifying and somewhat improved racecraft made him a must-have a lot of weeks this year, Richmond probably isn't one of the best tracks to start him for DFS play even though he's starting 33rd. Chastain tends to finish better than he starts this season, but at Richmond, that has tended not to be the case as he finished worse than he started in four of the six races as his cars went away, especially in the 2022 race when he started second and finished eighteenth after leading 80 laps. Now his cars are much slower than they were in 2022 and Trackhouse Racing has always had shaky speed on short tracks. You can probably still count on Chastain to finish better than he starts, but he probably won't gain enough positions to make him one of the top DFS options.\
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
August 16, 2025
Carson Hocevar has had a confusing season as he has shown an increase in speed from his rookie season while also seeming to show less racecraft. Although he has probably had better performance this year, his season somehow feels like a sophomore slump because he exceeded expectations last year and failed to meet them this year, especially considering his Rookie of the Year opponent Josh Berry won this year. It seems like most of his good luck from last year when he managed to consistently pull off his dangerous moves went away this year, which has led to a regression to the mean in some respects. Nonetheless, Hocevar might be a decent choice tonight since he drove from 19th to 8th last year and is starting better in 15th this year. Since he's been faster this year, he might have a solid chance for a top ten - if he can keep his cool.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
August 16, 2025
Shane van Gisbergen has never started a race at Richmond in the NASCAR Cup Series and he wasn't much of a contender in last year's Xfinity race either, where he finished 15th a lap down. He did outqualify his teammate Ross Chastain in 27th, which isn't as much of a surprise as you might expect because Chastain has been qualifying terribly. However, SVG is still something of an oval novice and he doesn't seem to have many oval skills yet other than avoiding crashes. That won't matter much at Richmond, which has been one of the cleanest tracks in the Next Gen era with only seven DNFs in the six previous races here, only four of which resulted from crashes. His great car control won't likely help him much at a track so clean, so his lack of speed will be more paramount here, which means he should probably be avoided.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
August 16, 2025
Bubba Wallace has been strong at Richmond Raceway over the last couple of years, as the 23XI Racing driver has finished 13th or better in the last three races at "The Action Track," including a career-best fourth-place finish last year. In Saturday night's Cook Out 400, the No. 23 Toyota will roll off the starting grid from seventh-place, and Bubba should be able to contend for a solid top-10 finish. In practice on Friday, he was one of the faster cars on the long run in the second group, which will pay dividends on Saturday night during the race. Additionally, Bubba finished third at Martinsville this season--which used the same tire combination that Goodyear brought this weekend to Richmond--and he was also strong at Bowman Gray and North Wilkesboro. In DFS, Bubba Wallace is under-priced ($7,500 on DraftKings) but doesn't have much Place Differential upside. He's a tournament option, though, as a top-five finish is definitely within his reach.
--Jordan McAbeeSource: ifantasyrace
August 16, 2025
After the speed he showed earlier in the season, Austin Cindric had a downturn in performance for most of the summer, but he had one of his best short-track drives two weeks ago at Iowa when he started fourth and finished 12th. It's possible he'll be fast at Richmond. Cindric doesn't typically run well here, as he only finished better than 20th once, but he has also tends to be faster at most tracks this year than he was in previous seasons. Coming off a run of four consecutive finishes between 12th and 16th, he will probably run better than most models would predict. However, he is starting 13th, so it is likely that he will finish worse than he starts, meaning he probably doesn't have a great deal of DFS value.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
August 16, 2025
After winning his seventh NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series race of the season and first at Richmond on Friday night, Corey Heim returns to the track for Saturday's Cup Series race, but it's hard to see him contending since he qualified 32nd when his more experienced teammates Tyler Reddick and Bubba Wallace both qualified in the top 10, and even Riley Herbst outqualified him. Heim has never started a Cup Series race on a short track before unless you erroneously think Dover counts. As a result, it's hard to predict how he'll do in a race with more than one very good driver in it. Ultimately, it seems like it takes most drivers a couple years to figure out the Next Gen chassis on ovals, as has also proven true for Heim's truck predecessor Zane Smith. As dominant as he has been in the Truck Series, he probably won't break this trend, but he qualified poorly enough in a fast enough car that you should consider him anyway.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
August 16, 2025
After years of futility at Richmond, Daniel Suárez surprisingly had one of the best runs of his Cup Series career here last year, where he led 93 laps and finished 10th, although Suárez's good run was predicted here. Nonetheless, don't expect him to repeat that feat this week. Last year, Suárez benefited from going on alternate tires, but there will be no such possiblity this year, as NASCAR has not decided to repeat last year's optional tire experiment. Furthermore, Suárez has been a lot slower pretty much everywhere than his earlier Trackhouse Racing seasons, so it seems like he doesn't even have the speed to benefit from strategy plays most of the time anymore. When you further consider that Trackhouse Racing has typically not had amazing speed on short tracks to begin with, and his qualifying position was a decent 21st, you should look elsewhere in DFS.
--Sean Wrona - RotoBallerSource: Racing Reference
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