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Marcell Ozuna 2024 Player Outlook: Another 30 HR In Store For Veteran Power Hitter
11 months agoAtlanta Braves designated hitter Marcell Ozuna got off to a horrendous start in 2023, batting an almost unthinkable .085 (5-for-67) with a wRC+ of just 10 in the first month. Despite that, the veteran still managed to end the season with a .274 BA and a 139 wRC+, along with 40 HR, 100 RBI, 84 R, and a .381 WOBA. Thanks to an elite Barrel% of 16.6% (98th percentile), the 40 HR were a career-high. But can he keep it up? A career Barrel% of 10.5% suggests the HR should come again in 2024, but the 2x All-Star is entering his age-33 season, so a repeat of last season isn't likely. The good news is that almost every stat from 2023 fell near in-line with career numbers, including K%, Contact%, SwStr%, O-Swing%, BABIP, and average EV, so there's no pattern of diminishing abilities yet. ATC projections forecast a .255-30-83-72-1 line with a .346 WOBA and a 116 wRC+. RotoBaller ranks him at 150 overall, just ahead of his NFBC ADP of 155. 30-HR potential starts to dry up around his ADP, but if you miss or the age-related dropoff scares you, Christopher Morel has 30-HR upside 50 picks later and will be heading into his age-25 season.
