2 years agoToronto Blue Jays right-hander Jose Berrios had one of the worst seasons in baseball in 2022. He managed a 5.23 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and 19.8% strikeout rate with 12 victories across 32 starts. Berrios still had great command (6% walk rate) but posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career outside his rookie season, and his 1.52 HR/9 was the third worst among qualified pitchers. Every pitch in the 28-year-old's arsenal (curveball, four-seamer, sinker, changeup) diminished in terms of xwOBA and whiff rate compared to 2021. However, batters chased more against Berrios this season than the previous two, and his pitch movement was solid around the board. His sinker and fastball usage probably hurt him, though. Berrios threw the sinker 25.8% of the time in 2022 after a 29.6% mark last season and increased his fastball usage by 1.2%, his worst offering. It hurt his ground ball rate, which fell to 40.7%, compared to a career percentage of 42%. After June, Berrios used his sinker more and fastball less, which helped produce a 43.9% ground ball rate, 1.20 HR/9, and 3.96 FIP the rest of the way. Keeping that trend going into 2023 would help the righty's ERA, and although he might not be a strikeout pitcher again, he definitely has the stuff to maintain a strikeout rate above 20%. Berrios' batted ball data wasn't pretty (15th-percentile barrel rate, 13th-percentile average exit velocity), but he's overcome high barrel rates before (9.1% in 2021) and owned an 88.3 average exit velocity over the final three months. Also, his .328 BABIP is bound to recover, as the Jays should have one of the better defenses with their offseason moves thus far. Fantasy managers are drafting Berrios around pick 237, but he could easily outperform his draft spot next season.--Spencer Seguin