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Frankie Montas 2020 Outlook: Expect The Breakout To Continue
5 years agoOakland Athletics' starting pitcher Frankie Montas broke out in a big way in 2019, finishing with a 2.63 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 103 strikeouts in 96 innings before being suspended for 80 games. While 16 starts is a relatively small sample size, Montas made specific pitch mix changes that fueled his breakout. Most importantly, he added a splitter and started throwing it at the expense of his sinker and fastball. While the splitter had a 2.2 pVAL, it also helped him improve results with the fastball and slider, which both jumped over six points in pVAL. The new repertoire led to a SwStr% of 11.5%, which was a three-percent jump from 2018, and his K%-BB% was 20.3%, easily the highest of his MLB career. His xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and barrel% were all a career-low, further indicating the validity of the new Montas. As a result, Montas' current ADP of 141, or the 54th pitcher off the board, feels too low. Expect a final line around 10-13 wins, a 3.40 ERA, a 1.2 WHIP, and a 24% K%. He should easily be going inside the top 100, around Jose Berrios (89th) and James Paxton (92nd).
