RADIO
Welcome back to the PGA DFS Vegas Report. Nick Taylor became the first Canadian to capture the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am with his wire-to-wire victory last weekend in California. Not only does the triumph net him a cool 1.4 million dollars, but it also will book his ticket to the Masters in April.
Betting can sometimes be fickle, and even if you handicap the proceedings correctly, you can miss something along the way. I feel as if that is what happened with Taylor for me last weekend. When running a long-term model, the 31-year-old graded out inside the top-40 for me compared to the field in practically every metric I measured, but never made my shortlist of options to consider, for one reason or another.
I think that partially shows just how deep these fields are in talent that I was able to construct a list of four additional 100/1-plus longshots who instead made my final card, but it also displays the importance of checking each and every box. Most dark horses don't come entirely out of left field, and it is our job to find the hidden information that might be getting overlooked by others. I try to be as transparent as possible when writing these articles, and even though we were able to connect on Cameron Smith at 55/1 at the Sony Open in January, I don't believe we have done a great job so far this year of breaking down outright wagers. The head-to-head selections have remained locked in with a record of (8-2-1), but there is some fine-tuning needed for us to get back to the levels we have become accustomed to over the years. My free betting column, which includes first-round leader bets and some of the head-to-head wagers that just missed out on my Vegas Report, can be found here. And if you ever have any questions about a particular bet, player in the field or anything golf-related, be sure to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports.
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2020 Genesis Invitational
For an in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's weekly Horse For The Course that highlights the best fits for the week's course. Be sure also to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
Riviera Country Club
7,322 Yards - Par 71 - Greens Poa
Measuring in at 7,322 yards, Riviera Country Club plays a lot longer than the yardage would indicate. Most of the distance is hidden with the par-five first and driveable par-four 10th playing substantially shorter than tour average, but that length is quickly made up at holes two, 12, 15 and 18. All four locations at the venue are par-fours that average a scoring total of 4.19 shots to 4.34, making them the four most challenging opportunities at Riviera.
While the par-four 10th only measures 305 yards, it is one of the better risk/reward holes that we have on tour. The bogey rate did get drastically lowered last season, but its 25 percent birdie or better total features practically no eagles and slightly over a 16 percent bogey percentage. Understanding the pin placement on a given day will be vital for players, and it is a hole that should be attacked when the pin is accessible but played as a two-shot setup to the green when the flagstick could present issues.
With length needed off the tee, it makes logical sense that bombers should have an easier time traversing the course, but that doesn't mean shorter hitters aren't in play. Only 53 percent of drives find the short grass at Riviera, which is one of the lowest totals on tour. Add to that some of the smallest greens in America, tallying just a 57 percent GIR rate (eight percent lower than tour average), and you start to get a picture that shows length is welcomed but not the only necessity. Golfers will need to be able to gain strokes around the green to salvage their score, and three-putting is a prevalent statistic - even if the small greens would have you think otherwise.
Genesis Invitational
#1 - Dustin Johnson - 15/1
DraftKings Price: $10,000 / FanDuel: Price $11,800
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 16.2%
You really can't go wrong with anyone at the top of the board, but it is Dustin Johnson that stands out as a value play at his 15/1 price tag. I get that there is some trepidation given Johnson's recent perceived form, but have we forgotten that the big-hitting American is one of golf's elite players?
I am fully aware that the strength of Pebble Beach's field doesn't quite rival that of the Genesis Invitational, but there isn't a course suited for Johnson more than Riviera Country Club. The fifth-ranked player in the world was one of the most tipped golfers last weekend at an outright price of 6.5/1, and if it weren't for his final round 78, I believe casinos would have listed him about four to six points shorter.
I always find it useful to see what the sportsbooks will need to happen to have their best week possible, and it looks as if the three most significant liabilities for them right now would be Patrick Cantlay, Bubba Watson and Tony Finau. I find it marginally surprising that more wagers aren't on Johnson, but it does make some logical sense with the books willing to price the 20-time PGA Tour winner at 15/1 after his disappointing conclusion at Pebble. Betting shops don't make mistakes with their numbers often, so when a price seems off on the surface, you can either chalk it up to it being a trap bet or potential buyback spot to help alleviate some of their exposure elsewhere. With Cantlay, Finau and Watson all hovering in the same territory number-wise, we can correctly assume Johnson's odds have been inflated to account for their exposure on those three golfers.
#2 - Xander Schauffele - 22/1
DraftKings Price: $9,200 / FanDuel Price: $11,300
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 17.6%
I am not so sure that I fully buy into the narrative that Xander Schauffele will garner almost 18% ownership on DraftKings. We see him consistently bypassed in both the outright and DFS markets, and I'd expect gamers to either pay up to grab Patrick Cantlay/Bubba Watson or down towards Tony Finau. We will see if that ends up being the case, but I can make a strong argument that anything under 20 percent is a bargain for the California native.
Head-to-head wagers should have no direct correlation to futures bets, but we can use those numbers to decipher value on DraftKings. At the time of writing this article, Schauffele is currently priced at -126 over Brooks Koepka ($9,400) and a staggering -188 over Bubba Watson ($9,600). Personally, that number has become too much of a runaway train against Watson and is yielding value on the lefty golfer, but it does show that people backing Watson in the outright market might want to do a strong double take and consider pivoting onto Schauffele instead.
The American has sputtered in recent starts at the Farmers Insurance Open and on Sunday at the Waste Management Open, but it is about time that the general public puts some respect on Xander's name and includes him into the same realm as the upper-echelon options. Schauffele has achieved more career success than Patrick Cantlay and Jon Rahm and has shown to be a better closer than the majority of players on tour. Riveria's firm and fast conditions should suit his game, and a victory here might finally give him the stature that he deserves.
#3 - Justin Rose - 45/1
DraftKings Price: $8,500 / FanDuel Price: $10,700
Projected DraftKings Ownership Percentage - 13.8%
One of the biggest deterrents I have seen from people for why they aren't playing Justin Rose has to do with his current form. It is easy to point to his missed cut at the Farmers Insurance Open as an example of his struggles, but we have to do better as an industry of diving deeper into statistics.
I'll begrudgingly accept the notion that his lack of recent PGA Tour rounds might make some hesitant to consider the former number one player in the world, but we are talking about a golfer that has made 18 straight worldwide cuts before his slip up at Torrey Pines, and that doesn't even get into the discussion of how he hadn't finished worse than 34th in nine consecutive outings.
If we look at what went wrong in La Jolla, Rose shot himself out of the tournament after a horrific start at the South Course. He did recover on Friday at the North to pencil in a two-under 70, but the damage was already done from his opening round 75. The question then becomes: What went wrong? And is it something that can get corrected this quickly? For starters, Rose lost 2.1 shots with his irons on Thursday, the most strokes he has given up with his approach game since the American Express in 2019. I never worry about the Englishman's irons in general, but in case you were wondering how he responded to the lousy effort he displayed a year ago, Rose went out in his next start to capture the daunting Farmers Insurance Open that we are using as the sole reason for his current woes. The 10th-ranked player in the world is a premier ball striker that excels with his long irons, and a test such as Riveria fits right into his wheelhouse.
Key Stats
- Driving Distance 17.5%
- Strokes Gained Tee to Green 15%
- Three-Putt Avoidance 15%
- Proximity From 150+ Yards 15%
- Par-Four Average 15%
- Par-Five Birdie or Better 12.5%
- Strokes Gained Around the Green 10%
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
- Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140
- Cameron Smith $7,500 price tag on DraftKings vs. Cameron Champ $7,400 price tag
- Cameron Smith 4.2% percent projected ownership vs. Cameron Champ 5.8 percent projected ownership
1.20 Units to Win 1.44 Units
I thought Cameron Smith had about a three percent edge when the line opened -110 both ways, but we have now entered a different realm after this matchup has seen 30 points of movement. A lot of times I can justify a move and partially explain it, but I have no answer for why substantial money has caused this line to deviate the way it has early in the week.
I run my head-to-head models a few different ways before pinpointing prices for each matchup. One of the things I like to do is attach a consistency rating to each player in the field. By doing this, I usually can find incongruities for golfers that are more liable to find a missed cut out of the week. For the sake of parity, Smith finished as the 21st safest golfer for me on the card, whereas Cameron Champ barely cracked my top 80 players.
I assume the narrative most are using for their belief in Champ is that he has made eight straight cuts, and it doesn't hurt that anytime someone hears length is required at a venue, the youngster immediately comes to mind. The problem behind that thought process is that most of Champ's recent starts have included a late slip-up. We can chalk some of that up to nerves, but there is still a level of volatility that backers of the 77th-ranked player in the world will need to avoid.
One of my biggest concerns for Champ at Riviera Country Club comes down to his lack of a short game. When attaching a 70% weight to statistics in 2019 and 30% to this season, Champ grades out almost dead last in this field for both three-putt avoidance (114th) and strokes gained around the green (117th). The 24-year-old is typically able to avoid that becoming an issue because of his length, but this week's track is so difficult because the distance it plays is magnified. Extended par-fours (86th in par-four average) require long irons into the greens for all players (69th in proximity over 150 yards), and the issue for Champ is that most holes demand you to hit a specific location off the tee, making it impossible to bomb-and-gouge freely. I've had a feeling for the last few weeks that Champ might have his hands full the next time he gets a venue that reduces his distance at times, and I think we see the lack of short game that he possesses catch up to him in California.
Good luck this weekend, and let's try to keep the positive momentum rolling!
2020 Head-to-Head Record (8-2-1)
+5.85 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponents Finish | Result | Total |
| Sanderson Farms | Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T18 (-11) | MC (+4) | Win | 1 |
| Safeway Open | Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T7 (-12) | MC (+2) | Win | 1 |
| Shriners Open | Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | 61 (-9) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Houston Open | Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley | 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 | MC (+3) | MC (+3) | Push | 0 |
| Mayakoba Classic | Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T48 (-5) | T76 (+1) | Win | 1.1 |
| RSM Classic | Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-13) | MC (-3) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1.1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T21 (-6) | T68 (+1) | Win | 1 |
| Waste Management | Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+5) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Pebble Beach | Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | MC (E) | Win | 1 |
2020 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10
| Player | Event | Odds | Finish Position |
| Cameron Smith | Sony Open | 55 | 1 |
| Abraham Ancer | American Express | 50 | 2 |
| Bud Cauley | American Express | 110 | 4 |
| Joaquin Niemann | Sentry TOC | 50 | 5 |
| Dustin Johnson | Sentry TOC | 10 | 7 |
| Xander Schauffele | ZOZO Championship | 25 | 10 |
| Andrew Putnam | American Express | 66 | 10 |
Yearly Record:
2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)
Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
