PGA Betting Advice: Genesis Invitational - Head-To-Head Selections

February 11, 2020

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best head-to-head plays for the Genesis Invitational

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop.

If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to check out my PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week. My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (80-37-7), netting nearly 47 units of profit and a 68% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 16 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @teeoffsports. Be sure also to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

Head-to-Head Wagers To Consider:

Full disclosure, some of these plays are bet by me weekly. I am extremely precise when it comes to my premium card of wagers and demand they meet a stringent set of criteria. If you were looking to play the entire board, these still yield long-term value, but they might present more volatility than I would care to have when releasing a condensed card.

***Because this tournament is so strong from top-to-bottom, we have been given a handful of virtual coin flips in the head-to-head market. The books are protecting themselves on certain sides with a higher vig attached to my preferred golfer, but I am not one who generally lays prices on matchup bets. I don't mind attempting to find a Dustin Johnson wager against someone ranked better than him on the futures list, but I have only found high-vig wagers against Patrick Cantlay and Tiger Woods. I don't believe in forcing bets where there aren't any and will only be attaching one selection for the article this week. I will also have a top-play in my 'Vegas Report' that releases Wednesday.

Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners -130

Reasons I Liked the Play: Despite making seven cuts in a row, Corey Conners is one of the golfers that is popping off on my head-to-head sheet for missed cut potential. The Canadian is not very long off the tee, nor does he feature the touch around the green or three-putt avoidance that you would hope to see for someone on a difficult track. Conners' recent results will give some hope that he finds a way to traverse Riveria Country Club, but I am not buying into the hype.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: A lot of the concerns I have about Corey Conners are also present in Ryan Palmer. Palmer's short game can always be a deterrent for his success, and his statistical setup for the venue leaves him exposed to some missed cut potential of his own.  I do believe we have about a six percent edge in terms of implied win probability, but I worry that we could be in store for a missed cut showing from both men.

1.00 Unit to win 1.10

Cameron Smith +120  over Cameron Champ -140

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ will be my 'Vegas Report' bet this week. I try to put my premium selection in these articles as often as possible to allow everyone to grab the same numbers I am acquiring, but my in-depth write-up will be out for this matchup on Wednesday.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:

Last Week's Results:

1-2-0 ( -0.43 Units)

We destroyed the closing numbers on all three wagers last week but ended up having to settle for a small loss at 1-2. As was projected in the article, Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay saw approximately 35 points of movement (closing at +125), but we weren't able to connect on what I had pegged as nearly a 50/50 wager. I am never a huge fan of releasing selections like that in my columns because they work better for those that take every edge possible, but it is hard to pass up on around eight percent of implied probability. We will attempt to get ourselves back on track at the Genesis Invitational, but we thankfully still have almost 2.5 units of profit to show for this piece.

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results:

9-8-0 (+2.42 Units)

2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (8-2-1)

+5.85 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets

2020 Premium Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.175 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)

2018 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (46-24-2) +24.49 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)

2019 Golf Betting:
Head to Head Bets (16-9-2) +8.33 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)

Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)

Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41

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