RADIO
If Brooks Koepka ever had to join the military he would immediately be promoted to Major Koepka, based purely off his track record in the biggest tournaments of the calendar year. He is a four-time major winner with a pair of PGA and US Open Championships and has his eyes set on a third Wannamaker trophy with a 1 shot lead heading into the final round at Oak Hill Country Club. He has an affinity for the grandest of stages and tomorrow will be extremely interesting to see if he can hang onto his lead (-6) with Viktor Hovland and Corey Conners sitting 1 back at -5. Bryson DeChambeau sits 3 back with Scottie Scheffler and Justin Rose at -2. With this course showing its teeth at any given moment, who knows how far back is too far back.
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
Featured Promo: Get any full-season Props Premium Pass for 10% off using code BALLER. Win big with our two new Props Optimizer tools -- one for PrizePicks Props, and one for Sportsbook Betting Props. Find optimal prop bets and get our recommended picks daily! Go Premium, Win More!
Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Now, as much as we preach to avoid chasing ownership points, there are always exceptions to the rule and the beast that is Oak Hill CC is just that. Time for some quick math. The average points scored in R3 of the Byron Nelson was 41. Today, the field average was 21 points, on the easiest of the 3 days played so far.
So, we have a 20-point difference in average points between the two tournaments. The average of the points available for top 10 finishes is 8, which is 16% of the total points scored at the Byron and 28% of the available projected points in R4 tomorrow. A 12% increase across six roster spots is 72% which is basically 3/4 of a 7th roster spot. We are probably going to want to try roster as many guys who have a legitimate shot at making it into the top-10 tomorrow. More on this below.
Round 4 Strategy
Not only are finishing position points at a premium tomorrow, but it appears the leaders once again will be spoilt with less wind and warmer temperatures. More reason to lean into guys closer to the top of the leaderboard. If we play chalkier guys towards the top, it will be important to be conscious, more so than ever, of how we piece our lineups together, at least trying to include one or two pivots in our lineups to get different. Leaving $500-$1000 on the table may also be a way to make sure your lineups are not duplicated.
The top-7 golfers are the only guys under par, making level par a reasonable expectation to try get to if you want a guy finishing inside the top-10 by end of R4. In each of the three rounds, only a single 66 was carded by Bryson (R1) and Brooks in R2 and R3. There were eight -3s with the majority of them coming in R2. So let's say that the best score out there is a 67, making T20 about as far back as we want roughly 4 of our 6 golfers in each lineup to be.
When it comes to sifting through the chalk, we are going to fade the guys who have been doing the damage with their putters, as a hot putter typically cools off in the final round when in contention, as the nerves affect guys who are putting above their baseline the most, with a fraction of a misread resulting in a full shot lost.
Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4:
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $5 PGA SHOWDOWN $12K CADDIE [SINGLE ENTRY] (ROUND 3), which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
Did you know RotoBaller has a Premium DFS PGA subscription?
Like what you read today? You can show your support for Byron by using the discount code MANIAC when purchasing a PGA Premium Pass. You get 10% off and full access to all of our Premium PGA articles, DFS tools, and Lineup Optimizer! You also get access to weekly betting picks from Spencer Aguiar, one of the top betting minds in the industry. Spencer is absolutely crushing out of the gate in 2022!
Top 10 Candidates (Chalk)
$10,000+: Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy should come in at roughly half the ownership Brooks will be clicked. Scottie had the round I thought he would have with the putter all tournament long, but his ball striking still remains as one of the best in the field and he is only 4 shots back of Brooks in T5. Rory sits a shot further back but is $1,000 cheaper than Scottie, making him more build friendly, particularly with a whopping R4 SG average of +2.46. He loves himself a Sunday charge, with his Sunday strokes gained average ranking as the 5th-highest in the field behind only Rahm's R1 and R2, Scottie's R1 and Rory's R1.
$9,000: Okay, Viktor Hovland, you have seen yourself in this position in the last few majors and now it is time to keep that foot on the gas and hunt down the guys in front of you without looking back. Hovland leads the field in Ball Striking over the last 3 rounds, with the putter barely gaining him any strokes. We are taking a gamble that Brooks shoots something over par, putting forth a lack-luster R4 major performance that we have seen a lot of since 2019. Nobody else in the $9k range is better than T20.
$8,000: Byrson DeChambeau sits in 4th and has gained the second most strokes ball striking behind Hovland. His game turns into a duck out of water, when there is water, which he did well to navigate today. Tomorrow we have no rain in the forecast and hopefully we can lean on that Ball Striking again tomorrow with hopes that a few more putts drop. Corey Conners has gained just shy of 5 strokes putting so far this week, making him an easy fade in this range despite him sitting T2.
$7,000: Justin Suh, Michael Block (awesome story and one of the biggest take aways from this event regardless of result tomorrow) and Min Woo Lee have gained a combined total of 15 strokes putting so far. I have a Cam Davis matchup bet over Min Woo, which makes the six strokes Min Woo gained in the short game department six of the most tilting strokes I have had to deal with lately. Hopefully the short game leaves all three of these dudes tomorrow, with all three of them sitting inside the top-10.
$6,000: Victor Perez and Eric Cole have both gained over 3.5 strokes in the short game department and sit T10 and we will be fading both.
Top 10-20 (Pivots)
$10,000+: Nobody to choose from.
$9,000: Patrick Cantlay makes the second most birdies in the field and has gained exorbitant amounts of strokes putting on Bentgrass greens over the last 50 rounds, yet he is losing strokes putting and around the greens, having gained the seventh most strokes ball striking this week. He sits in T20 and if the putter gets hot, his ball striking has been presenting birdie opportunities like a college Power Point 101 class. Make some putts Patty Ice!
$8,000: >Insert "Its Brucies Time To Shine" scene from The Longest Yard< Hideki Matsuyama is the opposite of a designated pace setter, as he gains +1.39 strokes in R4 which is his best of the four splits. Hideki is absolutely live tomorrow and sits in T20.
$7,000: Nine of the first 12 names in the $7k range sit between T10 and T20, with two more in T27 and T33. Sahith Theegala, Patrick Reed, Cameron Davis, and Sepp Straka will all likely be double-digit owned in this range, so be sure to mix and match these guys with other low owned options to avoid dupes. There is a decent chance one of these four lands up inside the top-10 by end of day. Cameron Davis has lost -2.4 strokes putting so far but is 5th in strokes gained tee to green - making that Min Woo matchup even more tilting.
Keith Mitchell, Taylor Pendrith and Ryan Fox are the type of guys you want to mix in with the above four, as they should all be around 10% or less. Only Bryson has gained more strokes off the tee than Keith Mitchell who is undoubtedly one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world.
$6,000: Kurt Kitayama is $6,700 and sits in T16 and in case you need a reminder, he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational earlier this year (he is not in the screenshot above, but I will be rostering him).
Outside Top 20 (Leverage)
$10,000+: Jon Rahm is the leading birdie maker in the field and if somebody is capable of shooting a 65 tomorrow, he would be on that very short list. Sitting all the way in T42 he will be 5% owned and can be played in a lineup full of four or five other "top of the leaderboard" golfers, to get different.
$9,000: Collin Morikawa reminds me of a fluffy pedigree show dog, which looks good when all groomed up and in its natural environment. But when fluffy dogs get wet, they look like expensive giant mole rats, that shoot 74 in the rain. Hopefully Morikawa can dry off and give us a Lamborghini-like performance in some relatively normal conditions tomorrow.
Seems as though we are comparing these out of contention $9k studs to dogs, Xander Schauffele reminds me of that ferocious dog that seems like he would rip your leg off, until the gate opens and his tail starts wagging and roles on over to his back looking for belly scratches. Well, the gate is closed (T33) and there are zero expectations on Xander tomorrow, allowing him to play freely and ferociously with a viscious R4 strokes gained average of +1.91. *Full disclosure, when I played college golf, I was exactly like Xander - it takes one to know one.
$7,000: Matthew NeSmith will be our lone $7k out-of-contention guy, gaining a respectable +1.8 strokes T2G per round, but losing putting so far. Give us a spike putting performance and we are business at low ownership and salary.
$6,000: Chez Reavie has been a stud of a play for us in showdown and weeklong, so why stop now? He is min price and sits in T33. He gives us some nice salary relief and some decent upside for his price. Beau Hossler finds himself alongside Chez in T33 and has a very dangerous short game that can gain him bunches of strokes when out of contention, which he is.
Sam Stevens, Chris Kirk and Hayden Buckley are all in T27 and have been stellar from tee to green, with some putting inspiration potentially shooting these cheapies into the top-10 at 8% or less ownership.
Featured Group Matchup Bets
These are 1000% degenerate bets, as we are simply betting on golf that is on TV to enhance our viewing experience.
Phil Mickleson +170 over Justin Thomas - JT just looks lost on the golf course and look for Phil to snag a win over his old bag man, Bones Mackay who is now caddying for JT. -200 on Thomas just doesn't do it for me.
J.T. Poston +150 over Max Homa - As an outright ticket holder of Max Homa and the owner of multiple ReignMakers cards, his current state of play is just downright disappointing after what he showed us earlier in the year on the west coast. He survived the cut by leading the field putting, but the wheels fell off today. A number grab against Max Homa with another disappointing major performance (granted, his game was not necessarily there heading into either the Masters or this week).
Tony Finau -230 / Dustin Johnson -115 (Parlayed +173) - Tony Finau is the best iron player in the world right now who has been incapable of anything productive on the Ball Striking front this week, but against Thomas Detry, we gotta go with Big Tone. The second leg of the parlay is essentially a coin flip, with us taking the side of the guy who hasn't complained about pain in his wrist after each round. Spieth is definitely live to WD tomorrow and if he doesn't, DJ may meander the fairways and shoot a nonchalant 68 while appearing to be in the middle of an LSD trip.
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
Win Big With RotoBaller
Golf is back, and it's time for you to win big with RotoBaller! Our PGA DFS Premium Package features several savvy analysts and proven DFS winners.Our very own Joe Nicely recently took down a big DraftKings DFS tournament for the Travelers Championship. And as an encore, RotoBaller subscriber @tenndolly2 won $100K on FanDuel with the help of Joe and the rest of our Premium PGA team:
If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU
— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
Between all the incredible Premium PGA DFS content and tools we put out each week, and our Premium Slack Community where we chat with our subscribers before lineups lock, RotoBaller PGA subscribers are armed with the tools, analysis, and advice to win big.Congrats @tenndolly2 ???
— RotoBaller PGA (@RotoBallerPGA) August 10, 2020
Thanks for being a @RotoBaller PGA DFS Premium subscriber & checking out all the amazing golf content that @JoeNicely produces every week! https://t.co/tHKZVsPbbt
