PGA Course Preview for the 2025 U.S. Open - Scouting the Routing

June 11, 2025

Ian McNeill's free comprehensive course preview of Oakmont CC for the 2025 U.S. Open. Ian examines the course, giving key metrics and trends to help make informed decisions on the PGA betting board.

From Pinehurst to LACC, Brookline, and Winged Foot, golf fans have gotten more than their fair share of U.S. Open drama in the last five years. But in spite of these legendary backdrops, no other course in the rota better encapsulates the ethos of the United States Open than Oakmont.

Designed in 1903 with the sole purpose of being the most difficult layout possible, Oakmont's combination of thick rough, deep bunkering, and devilish green complexes have confounded the world's best for over a century. This week's iteration will mark a record 10th U.S. Open hosted on property, and in the previous nine, none of the over 1,000 professionals have managed to break the 5-under barrier through 72 holes. I anticipate a very similar storyline Sunday afternoon, as the USGA has done participants no favors with rough lengths exceeding five inches and mow lines creating some of the narrowest landing areas we'll see all season.

This piece will serve to break down every key trend and statistic I'm weighing to project a player's viability at Oakmont and set our readers up to make the crucial decisions necessary on pre-week betting boards. Without further ado, here is my comprehensive scouting report on Oakmont Country Club and the 2025 U.S. Open!

The Golf Course

Oakmont CC - Par 70; 7,372 yards

Past Champions

• 2024 - Bryson DeChambeau (-6) over Rory McIlroy
• 2023 - Wyndham Clark (-10) over Rory McIlroy
• 2022 - Matt Fitzpatrick (-6) over Scottie Scheffler and Will Zalatoris
• 2021 -  Jon Rahm (-6) over Louis Oosthuizen
• 2020 - Bryson DeChambeau (-6) over Matthew Wolff

Bonus: U.S. Open's held at Oakmont

• 2016 - Dustin Johnson (-4) over J. Furyk, S. Lowry, and S. Piercy
• 2007 - Angel Cabrera (+5) over J. Furyk and Tiger Woods
• 1994 - Ernie Els (-5) over Colin Montgomerie and Loren Roberts
• 1983 - Larry Nelson (-4) over Tom Watson
• 1973 - Johnny Miller (-5) over John Schlee

Oakmont by the Numbers

We need only rewind two weeks on the PGA Tour to see a comparable set of rough conditions to what's projected at Oakmont. Jack's place boasted a 4" mix of Kentucky bluegrass, ryegrass, and fescue that resulted in a season-high penalty average of 0.5 shots to off-line tee shots.

As a result, driving accuracy leapt near the top of the list of key stats for top performers that week: with eight of the top 10 drivers of the ball in Ohio exceeding the 66% mark in Fairway Percentage, and only one of the top 10 exceeding 290 yards in distance. One look at a leaderboard consisting of Scottie Scheffler, Sepp Straka, Nick Taylor, Russell Henley and even Brandt Snedeker tells you all you need to know about the required profile at Memorial.

This week, Oakmont possesses many of the same agronomic qualities to Muirfield Village: boasting 5" rough blended with Kentucky Bluegrass, ryegrass, and poa annua. However, although I expect players to face similar, or even greater, difficulties navigating second shots from off of the fairway, one key question must be answered before we start sorting our player pools exclusively by driving accuracy.

How many fairways should even the most accurate drivers of the ball realistically expect to hit around Oakmont? After all, although Muirfield Village does present a stern driving test to the world's best, the average landing areas in the fairways at Jack's Place measure 5-10 yards wider on average than they will at Oakmont.

One simply needs to go back to the 2020 U.S. Open at Winged Foot to see the results of a golf course with similarly penal rough and nearly impossible to hit fairways. Players hit just 50% of their fairways in that rendition five years ago, allowing bombers like Bryson DeChambeau, Matthew Wolff, and Taylor Pendrith to swing away with impunity; knowing those at lesser swing speeds would still struggle to consistently play from the fairway.

As Bryson himself alluded to in his pre-tournament press conference, I don't see his carpet bombing strategies at Winged Foot carrying over completely to Oakmont. Too many holes here are protected by bunkers or rough that will make it difficult to run up approach shots to run straight up the front of the green. With the control needed into these green complexes, I see accuracy as a much bigger factor this week than in 2020.

Where distance becomes a much bigger asset could well be on second shots at Oakmont this week. As we saw 12 months ago at Pinehurst No. 2, the ability of long, high-ball hitters like Bryson and Rory to land their approach shots at a steeper angle onto firm putting surfaces gave them as much of an advantage around Pinehurst's infamous greens as their length off of the tee.

Apex height should once again be a significant factor this week with the volume of long approach shots on tap around Oakmont. Seven of the 12 par fours here measure over 460 yards, each of the four par threes measure over 180, and anyone looking to go for either of the two 600-plus yard par 5's will need to possess a special ability to hit a high, soft long-iron/fairway wood from 250+ yards.

As we saw at Muirfield Village last month, where many of the top iron players also rated out well above average in driving accuracy (Scheffler, Lowry, Bhatia, Henley, etc.), I anticipate a players driving ability to have as much impact on his approach numbers this week as any long-term iron splits on ordinary LIV/PGA Tour setups.

Therefore, this is one of the few weeks where I'd rank a players Total Driving ability higher than general approach play in my modeling. If a player is forced to continually hit six/seven-irons out of the rough here at Oakmont, I can guarantee it doesn't matter how good your historic proximity splits are.

Despite the rough off of the fairways being the main topic of conversation on Golf Channel this week, there is a case to be made that the greens at Oakmont will actually present the biggest problem to the 156 players this week. Despite being some of the largest on the PGA Tour (~8,500 square feet on average), Oakmont in 2016 conceded a Green in Regulation Percentage of just 55%, as well as a three-putt percentage of 6.8%.

Approach Putt Percentage will be among my most heavily weighted metrics, as I anticipate most front-runners this week to need to continually find ways to get down in two from 40-5o feet and beyond. While the severe undulations on the green surfaces themselves make for a test Tour Pros rarely see outside of Augusta National, they agronomy of Bent/Poa Annua is commonly found throughout the northeast: including last week at TPC Toronto (with TPC River Highlands, Detroit GC, Winged Foot, and Bethpage Black being other recent examples). Part of my putting model will be focused on players with a historic aptitude on these surfaces.

From a scrambling standpoint, it's difficult to nail down one particular facet of chipping acumen that should be weighed over others. On one hand, the deep greenside bunkering and thick rough calls back to a classically difficult PGA Tour venue like Muirfield Village or Torrey Pines. However, I project just as many par saves to come from 50-100 yards back in the fairway following a punch out from off of the fairway. Both scrambling figures have their merit this week (Around the Green splits from thick rough/Proximity from the Fairway <125 yards), and will each be included in my modeling.

Key Stats Roundup (in order of importance):

• Total Driving, particularly on long, difficult golf courses with thick rough. (Bay Hill, Torrey Pines, Muirfield Village, Oak Hill, Winged Foot, Olympia Fields, etc.)
• Three-Putt Avoidance/Approach Putt Performance + Historic Aptitude on Eastern Poa Annua greens
• SG: Approach/GIR % on difficult ball-striking courses
• Scrambling from 50-125 yards
• Past U.S. Open History

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

The Betting Card

Bryson DeChambeau (10-1)

Bryson Dechambeau since the rain delay.

Chip in eagle
Birdie
Chip in birdie

4 under par in 3 holes. Decent.
pic.twitter.com/K7LXauIJ4I

— Tour Pro 🏌️‍♂️ (@OfficialTourPro) June 6, 2025

With driving and putting each carrying the largest statistical weighting in my process this week, it should come as no surprise that Bryson DeChambeau leads the line on my betting card at Oakmont. The two-time U.S. Open Champion comes into the week aiming to be just the seventh man in history to win back-to-back, and presents as good of a statistical case as anyone to be the last man standing.

Starting in 2020 (just months before claiming his first Major Title), much has been made about Bryson's revolutionary approach to driving the ball. Starting as a hulking figure that cared very little about fairways hit (178th out of 196 players in Driving Accuracy five years ago), DeChambeau has found a way to dial in his driver and become an elite all-around off-the-tee entity.

From a strokes gained perspective, nobody can truly compare to the numbers DeChambeau has put up in the last two seasons. Starting at Oak Hill in 2023, Bryson has averaged an incredible 5.7 strokes gained per tournament with his driver alone at the Masters, PGA, and U.S. Opens: gaining no less than 4.3 strokes in any individual start.

This development into the best all-around driver in the game has given Bryson and unmatched baseline in the Major Championships: recording five consecutive top-six finishes in U.S.-based Majors, and no finish worse than a T20 since the aforementioned 2023 PGA at Oak Hill.

Over his last five Major Starts, DeChambeau has also proven he can conquer some of the most strenuous short-game venues in the world of golf: gaining 6.5 strokes on average between his chipping and putting dating back to the 2024 PGA.

Simply put, he's the best player we have in the game when combining ferocious off-the-tee play and touch on and around the greens. A tailor-made fit for U.S. Open, and particularly this most iconic venue in the rota. The price has taken a nosedive since I took the plunge at 10-1 Saturday evening, but even at 8-1, if I had one bet to make for this year's U.S. Open, it would be on the 31-year-old Californian.

Jon Rahm (14-1)

TWO SHOT SWING🤯

Jon Rahm makes a long birdie putt at the 11th while Scottie Scheffler makes bogey at the 9th, AND WE ARE TIED HEADING TO THE BACK NINE🔥pic.twitter.com/HGneda8aek

— Golf On Tap (@OnTapGolf) May 18, 2025

While Bryson has taken over the mantle as LIV's top hope in the Major Championships in recent years, there are signs emerging that Jon Rahm is returning to the player most expected to take over the reigns as their top import. After a self-acknowledged slump post-2023 Masters, the 30-year-old Spaniard proved last month that his best is still capable of contending for the game's biggest trophies.

History is unlikely to remember the 2024 PGA Championship as much of a contest given Scottie Scheffler's five-stroke winning margin, but Jon Rahm did stand on the 14th green Sunday afternoon with a chance to tie the outright lead. His six-foot birdie putt ultimately missed on the right side and Rahm settled for a T8 finish, but from the lips of the two-time Major Champion came a renewed confidence from knowing he's not far away from returning to peak form.

"I know I've been playing good. It's been consistently good all year. So I take confidence not only in my history in Majors in the past, my results in Majors recently, and week-in and week-out I've been playing good golf."

If we are returning to any semblance of Rahmbo's peak, Oakmont would make for a dream spot for his game. He holds trophies already at many of my corollary courses (Torrey Pines, Muirfield Village, Olympia Fields, Augusta National), and when he's on, is one of the few players capable of matching the ball-striking acumen of a Bryson or Scottie. I think 14-1 is a perfectly fair price to take a shot, and for those looking even further ahead, you can find similar numbers on Jon at Royal Portrush next month.

I'd be incredibly surprised if the PGA was the only Major he factored in in 2025.

If you read my articles @RotoBaller or listen to @TheTurnGolfPod I’ve been telling y’all it was #WinningSeason when golf came back! Shoutout to the entire @RotoBallerPGA squad and all you guys that support my work for all the ❤️ pic.twitter.com/07a4ynvbSU

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