PGA Betting Advice - AT&T Pebble Beach

Spencer Aguiar digs into the Vegas betting lines to find some of his best under-the-radar plays for the AT&T Pebble Beach

Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.

My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (79-43-8), netting over 43 units of profit and nearly a 65% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.

In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!

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Free Head-To-Head Selection 

Scott Stallings -105 over Michael Thompson

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Michael Thompson has experienced a nice turnaround with his career over the last few months, and while most will want to point to the paltry form that he has taken into this event in previous years for why he has only made three of eight cuts, I have a general feeling that the design of the layout is more to blame for his past woes. Thompson ranks outside of the top-75 compared to the field over the last two years in each of the critical par-four ranges that I attached a calculation to in my model, which might further explain his proximity ranking of 128th this week between 100-150 yards.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

There is a lot to like about this bet, with Scott Stallings having provided three top-14s at the property over the last four years, but there is a downside that has been present by him missing the other three cuts throughout his career at Pebble Beach. Stallings' 36th-place at the Waste Management should have been better if it wasn't for the struggles with his putter that have now lost 10.4 shots to the field over his last four tournaments, but he does draw his preferred Poa surface - the only grass he finds himself profitable on of the three major greens.

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

Kyle Stanley +112 over Rory Sabbatini

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

There isn't a vast edge present here, but I do believe books have the wrong man listed as the favorite. Rory Sabbatini's worse surface has been Poa throughout his career, and it creates a potential problem for a golfer that has been living and dying with his flat stick over the last few weeks. Kyle Stanley, on the other hand, has gained an impressive 9.2 shots with his irons over his previous two starts, making him a threat to compete on the first page of the leaderboard if he can turn his disastrous stretch of putting around. Losing 5.7 shots over a two-tournament span isn't quite ideal, but the move back to Poa gives him a chance to improve on his preferred grass type.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

The general reason why it made this card is the same reason it will miss out on the Vegas Report article. While there is a long-term edge when looking at my math behind this wager, we are dealing with just a slight advantage. It is enough for me to feel comfortable taking it to the window and placing a bet down on the play, but I am not going to get carried away on two golfers that have ceilings and floors that are both expanded.

1.00 Units to Win 1.12

Paul Casey +100 over Will Zalatoris

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

I can't imagine this will be a popular opinion inside the industry, but we are experiencing the perfect storm with Paul Casey and Will Zalatoris. None of this is meant to be a shot at the American, who I believe is showing that he has the potential to compete for major championships throughout his career, but this is a steep climb in stature after being placed against 50/1 shots in previous fields. I believe Pebble Beach will take away some of what he does well with his driving distance and long irons, and it allows me to make a strong argument that this line would have been closer to Casey -135 if we backtracked things to a few weeks prior. The sample size is minimal on Zalatoris across the board, but it is worth noting that Poa hasn't been great for him during his eight trackable rounds - evident by him losing about 0.29 shots to the field per day.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

The 24-year-old is a supremely gifted golfer who has the upside to take all of his negatives and turn them into a positive. It is not as if Zalatoris has lost strokes putting during every round on Poa grass, and it is possible that his skillset can find a way to dominate the par-fives on his way to another top-10 showing. All of those things are conceivable, but Pebble Beach is a track that appears to negate his strengths. Add in some wind to the mix for a golfer that has become statistically worse compared to the field in blustery conditions, and the price is right to grab an underrated Casey.

1.00 Units to Win 1.00

Mark Hubbard -105 over Tom Hoge

Reasons I Liked the Play: 

Tom Hoge is an intriguing golfer because he is performing better statistically than his six missed cuts in seven tournaments would suggest. However, the two most prominent numbers that caught my eye have come from how he performs in wind and putts on Poa. Hoge ranks 47th in this field in total putting but drops to 120th over his last 100 rounds on this surface. Similarly, he falls from the 65th player on my model in clean weather to 118th when looking at moderate-to-severe wind.

Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card: 

The smallest edge of all wagers this week is this one. Hubbard grades out marginally better no matter how I re-weight my model when comparing these two golfers, but we are talking about a wager that has less than a three percent implied probability advantage.

1.05 Units to Win 1.00

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2021 Premium Head-to-Head Record (3-1-0)

+ 1.88 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets

Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results

5-8-0 (-3.44 Units)

2021 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10

Yearly Record:

2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.03 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won (+54.255) 194.22% ROI

2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.64 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won (+55.98) 51.80% ROI

2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open  (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won (+27.743) 40.70% ROI

2020 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (13-14-2) -1.46 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Bryson DeChambeau U.S. Open (33/1)
Dustin Johnson Travelers Championship (30/1)
Sungjae Im Honda Classic (35/1)
Patrick Reed WGC-Mexico (50/1)
Cameron Smith Sony Open (55/1)
Overall Units Won (+37.015) 20.21% ROI

Career Record (Excluding 2021 Season Results)

Premium Head to Head Bets (76-42-8) +41.785 Units
Free Head to Head Bets (28-27-0) +3.90 Units
In-Tournament Head to Head Bets (37-25-6) +5.27 Units (Half-Unit Wagers)
Outright Winners (20)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
2020 - 19
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
2020 - 41

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