X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

2021 Overvalued Draft Picks - Starting Pitchers

I recently finished the grueling process of making my 2021 SP ranks one-by-one. What I did was go rotation-by-rotation and insert every pitcher into my list as I went along, taking a close look at each guy. This led to me having lots of knowledge on the player pool for the 2021 season, and having a list of rankings that came with no prior biases.

I previously identified some undervalued starters, so if you have not seen that yet be sure to check it out.

In this piece, I will go through some names that I have ranked significantly lower than their current ADP, based on NFBC draft results.

 

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

I am not as committed to this take as the rest of what you will see below, but I figured to include Buehler here. I have him as my #11 SP right now, and he is currently the sixth pitcher off the board in NFBC drafts. There is no questioning his abilities, he has a fantastic arm and is a huge upside starter every night he takes the mound. The issue is the team he plays for.

Since the 2017 season, the maximum number of innings a Dodgers pitcher has thrown in 182.2 innings (Hyun Jin Ryu in 2019). Buehler has topped out at 182.1 (in 2019). The main reason for this two-fold. First, the Dodgers just have not played many meaningful regular-season games, they routinely win the NL West running away. Secondly, they have no shortage of capable starting pitchers, so they never find themselves in need of maxing out their starters. This gives them the ability to ease their big arms into the playoffs, limiting their workload in the second half of the season.

It is possible that the Padres compete with the Dodgers this year, which would help. It is also true that every time is likely to limit their starter's innings after nobody even eclipsed 100 innings in 2020. These two things are good news for Buehler's fantasy stock, but it doesn't completely ease my doubts.

Buehler is also the rare ace that throws one pitch over 50% of the time, throwing his four-seamer 53% of the time last season. It's a great pitch, and he has never had trouble posting great numbers, but it is just another thing that makes me lower on him than the field.

 

Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals ace is currently the 11th pitcher off the board in drafts, and I have him as my #16 guy. His bad 4.91 ERA in 2020 has nothing to do with this either. It was a really goofy season for Flaherty and the Cardinals, so I'm willing to throw it all out. My reasoning for having him lower than the field is just that he does not the dominant stuff you typically see in the top twenty. He throws a four-seamer nearly 50% of the time that averages just 94 miles per hour.

Another huge chunk of his distribution is made up of sliders. The four-seamer and slider make up nearly 75% of his pitches, again, not very typical of a true fantasy ace. He has certainly posted some great stats in his young career, but I see Flaherty as more of an SP2 than the SP1 the rankings are showing him to be.

 

Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres

Lamet is one of the most unique starters in the league, throwing a slider 53% of the time last year. Another 37% of his distribution was made up by a four-seamer. The slider is one of the hardest pitches to locate, and the four-seamer is typically the pitch that gets out of the ballpark at the highest rate. And yet, Lamet posted a great walk rate (7.5%) and an elite home run rate (0.65 HR/9). His low ground-ball rate makes all kinds of sense with that arsenal, but it certainly does not support him being great at preventing the long ball.

After earning Cy Young votes in 2020, Lamet has vaulted up draft boards currently being the 23rd pitcher taken. I have him at #28 and will probably move him down further. I see regression coming for him in walks and home runs, which could make 2021 tough on him.

 

Zach Plesac, Cleveland Indians

A stellar 2020 season boosted Plesac's draft stock up massively. He is currently the 20th pitcher off the board in NFBC leagues, and he comes in at #34 on my board. Plesac has a deep arsenal and stellar command, but the truth is that his success has come in such a small sample. He was not very impressive in 115.2 innings in 2019 (18.5% strikeout rate, 1.23 WHIP), and that is not going to be completely erased by 55 innings in 2020 (27.7% strikeout rate, 0.80 WHIP). He does not have much velocity or movement on any of his pitches, and he gives up tons of fly balls (career 39% ground-ball rate).

He has four pitches and locates them all well, which keeps his floor pretty high, but I think the field has overreacted on Plesac.

 

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Expectations are being tempered on Wheeler, as he is the 31st pitcher off the board in NFBC. I still have him a step behind that at #41 on my list. He did post an enticing 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 2020, but that came with a huge drop-off in strikeouts (a career-low 18.4% strikeout rate). Wheeler threw more four-seamers and fewer sinkers in 2020, and yet somehow saw his ground-ball climb up to 55%. No part of that makes sense to me. What we have now is a guy who took a big step backward in strikeouts and benefitted hugely from a ground-ball rate I do not see as sustainable. I'll pass on Wheeler as a top thirty starter without thinking twice.

 

Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals

The young Royals starter threw a soft sinker 57% of the time and yet posted a respectable strikeout rate of 23%. Hitters made contact on 83% of their swings against the sinker, so him having a decent strikeout rate just does not make any sense. He is a ground-ball specialist, and that will continue, but I cannot see his draft price (66th SP off the board) being justified seeing how he will almost certainly have a worse strikeout rate in 2021 than he did in 2020. Strikeouts are not the be-all-end-all in fantasy, but a guy allowing this much contact is unlikely to help you in WHIP either, so I'm firmly off of Singer.

 

Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners

The same story as Singer here, Gonzales threw a sinker 45% of the time and yet posted a 23% strikeout rate. His sinker was even more hittable than Singer's with an 88% contact rate. Marco had never posted a good WHIP in his career before dropping in a 0.95 mark in 2020, and that is just completely unrepeatable in my opinion. He will remain a decent streaming option given his strong command, but he is not a fantasy-relevant starter in standard leagues. I have him as my number 96 starter, and he is soaring way above that at #59 in NFBC drafts.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2021 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brandon Crawford1 hour ago

Expects To Play In Season Finale Sunday
Ja'Marr Chase2 hours ago

Wrecks Rams, Closes Buy-Low Window
Patrick Sandoval2 hours ago

Exits Early Monday With Right Oblique Tightness
Jon Gray2 hours ago

Exits Early Monday With Right-Wrist Tightness
Joe Burrow2 hours ago

Guts Out Calf Issue In Close Victory
A.J. Brown3 hours ago

Explodes For 131 Yards Against Tampa Bay
D'Andre Swift3 hours ago

Gashes Buccaneers For 138 Total Yards
Mike Evans3 hours ago

Snags Touchdown In Loss
Minnesota Timberwolves4 hours ago

Trevor Keels Signs With Timberwolves
Golden State Warriors4 hours ago

Rodney McGruder Joins Warriors
Atlanta Hawks4 hours ago

Chris Silva Joins Hawks On Exhibit-10 Deal
Julius Randle4 hours ago

Should Be Ready For Training Camp
Joe Burrow7 hours ago

Officially Active On Monday Night
Puka Nacua7 hours ago

Active Against Bengals
Alvin Kamara7 hours ago

Reinstated From Suspension
Brandon Aiyuk7 hours ago

Seen At Monday's Practice
Deebo Samuel7 hours ago

Held Out Of Monday's Practice
David Montgomery8 hours ago

Listed As Limited
Christian Watson8 hours ago

Listed As DNP Monday
Jaylen Waddle8 hours ago

Still In Concussion Protocol
Joe Burrow8 hours ago

Optimism Surrounding Joe Burrow's Monday Night Status
Garrett Mitchell11 hours ago

Could Return Tuesday
Aaron Jones11 hours ago

Could Play On Thursday Night In Week 4
Derek Carr11 hours ago

Deemed Week-To-Week With Shoulder Injury
Andy Dalton11 hours ago

Throws For 361 Yards In Loss
Pat Freiermuth12 hours ago

Scores In Week 3 Victory
Jimmy Garoppolo12 hours ago

Enters Concussion Protocol
Bryce Young12 hours ago

Uncertain For Week 4
Jonathan Mingo12 hours ago

In Concussion Protocol
Rafael Fiziev12 hours ago

Suffers Knee Injury To Cut Main Event Short
Rafael Fiziev12 hours ago

Mateusz Gamrot Victorious After Rafael Fiziev Suffers Knee Injury
Michelle Waterson-Gomez12 hours ago

Dominated In TKO Loss
AJ Fletcher12 hours ago

Drops To 1-3 In The UFC
AJ Fletcher12 hours ago

Bryan Battle Submits AJ Fletcher For Second Straight Finishing Win
Ryan Blaney13 hours ago

Speeding Penalty Costs Him Big At Texas
Francisco Alvarez14 hours ago

Dealing With Finger Contusion
Ketel Marte14 hours ago

Absent From Lineup On Monday
Mike Trout14 hours ago

Season Is Over
William Byron15 hours ago

Earns Sixth Win Of Season At Texas
Denny Hamlin15 hours ago

Secures Third Straight Top-Five Finish At Texas
Tyler Reddick15 hours ago

Late Wreck Ruins Tyler Reddick's Race At Texas
Chase Briscoe15 hours ago

Delivers Big Value At Texas
Kyle Busch15 hours ago

Championship Hopes Take Big Hit After Texas Wreck
Ross Chastain15 hours ago

Overcomes Throttle Issue To Finish Second At Texas
NASCAR15 hours ago

Bubba Wallace "Gave it Away" At Texas, Finishes Third
Chris Buescher16 hours ago

Has Another Strong Points Day At Texas
Kyle Larson16 hours ago

On Playoff Hot Seat After Wrecking At Texas
Adam Fantilli17 hours ago

Registers Two Assists In Preseason Debut
Trevor Van Riemsdyk17 hours ago

Trevor van Riemsdyk Sustains Apparent Hand Injury
Travis Konecny17 hours ago

"Banged Up"
Andrei Vasilevskiy17 hours ago

Battling Minor Injuries
Mika Zibanejad17 hours ago

Suffers An Upper-Body Injury
Kyle Palmieri18 hours ago

Set For Re-Evaluation This Week
Deandre Ayton1 day ago

To Portland A Possibility?
Damian Lillard1 day ago

Bulls, Raptors Expressing Interest In Damian Lillard
Tim Hardaway1 day ago

Pacers Reportedly Not Interested In Tim Hardaway Jr.
Buddy Hield1 day ago

To Dallas?
Francisco Alvarez1 day ago

Removed Early On Sunday
Luis Robert Jr.1 day ago

Replaced During Sunday's Game
Yandy Díaz1 day ago

Yandy Diaz Leaves Early Sunday
Ricardo Ramos2 days ago

Submitted Early At UFC Vegas 79
Charles Jourdain2 days ago

Extends Win Streak To Two
Marina Rodriguez2 days ago

Scores One-Sided TKO Win At UFC Vegas 79
Dan Ige2 days ago

Falls Short Against Another Top-10 Opponent
Bryce Mitchell2 days ago

Returns To Win Column At UFC Vegas 79
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

Feels Good About His Car at Texas
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

a Very Strong Option at Texas
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Pegged as Favorite to Win at Texas
Carson Hocevar2 days ago

Looks Impressive Again at Texas
Zane Smith2 days ago

Slow In Practice and Qualifying at Texas
Todd Gilliland2 days ago

in Downgraded Equipment for Texas
Luis Arraez2 days ago

Suffers Injury On Saturday
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Will Start 25th At Texas
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

The Top Value Play On Sunday At Texas
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2 days ago

.'s Struggles At Texas To Continue This Weekend
Joey Logano2 days ago

Makes For A Nice Bounce Back Play At Texas
NASCAR2 days ago

Bubba Wallace Wins Pole At Texas Motor Speedway
Kenley Jansen3 days ago

Returns From COVID List
Mike Trout3 days ago

Hits Off Tee
Yordan Alvarez3 days ago

Doubles In A Run, Managing Elbow Issue
MLB3 days ago

Diamondbacks-Yankees Postponed Saturday Due To Rain
MLB3 days ago

Braves-Nationals Postponed On Saturday
Nolan Arenado3 days ago

Cardinals Place Nolan Arenado On Injured List
Sandy Alcantara3 days ago

Suffers Setback After Rehab Start
Clayton Keller3 days ago

Ready To Become 100-Point Player
Nicklas Backstrom3 days ago

Feeling At 100 Percent
Oliver Ekman-Larsson3 days ago

Set To Get Look On Top Power-Play Unit
Carter Verhaeghe3 days ago

Battling Muscle Tightness
Nikolaj Ehlers3 days ago

Struggling With Neck Spasms
Logan Cooley3 days ago

Scores Wonder Goal In Preseason Opener
3 days ago

Chauncey Billups Backs Scoot Henderson To Become A "Star"
Josh Green3 days ago

Aims To Become A Bigger Defensive Presence
Josh Hart3 days ago

Set To See Minutes As Power Forward
Cade Cunningham3 days ago

Jaden Ivey Believes Cade Cunningham Will "Shock" People
DeMar DeRozan3 days ago

Ready To Shoot More Threes
Marcus Morris3 days ago

Sr. Set To Remain A Starter In New Season
Brandon Lowe3 days ago

Finished For 2023 With Knee Fracture
Salvador Perez3 days ago

On Track For Return On Sunday
Triston McKenzie3 days ago

Set To Return For Sunday's Start
Jaden McDaniels3 days ago

Timberwolves Desire To Extend Jaden McDaniels
Boston Celtics3 days ago

Celtics Signing Lamar Stevens As Bench Piece
Frank Ntilikina3 days ago

Could Be Limited At Training Camp
Jayson Tatum3 days ago

To Play More Point Guard In 2023-24?
Rasmus Dahlin3 days ago

Sabres Aiming To Lock Up Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power Long-Term
Connor Hellebuyck3 days ago

Focused On The Jets In 2023-24
Trevor Zegras3 days ago

Jamie Drysdale Absent On First Day Of Camp
Andrew Cogliano3 days ago

Hoping To Be Cleared For Season Opener
Alexander Barabanov3 days ago

Prefers To Remain In San Jose
Mattias Ekholm3 days ago

Roughly A Week Away From Skating
Damian Lillard3 days ago

Suns Considered Dark Horse To Facilitate Damian Lillard Deal
Donovan Mitchell3 days ago

Not Expected To Sign An Extension Next Summer
3 days ago

Amen Thompson Is Ready To Go For Training Camp
Mateusz Gamrot4 days ago

Seeking Victory In Seventh UFC Appearance
Rafael Fiziev4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In Win Column
Michelle Waterson-Gomez4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
AJ Fletcher4 days ago

Set To Showcase On Main Card
Bryan Battle4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 79
Evgeny Kuznetsov4 days ago

Sees New Head Coach As "Perfect Match"
Mark Scheifele4 days ago

Open To Staying With Jets
BUF4 days ago

Buffalo Sabres Reportedly Eyeing Patrick Kane
Ricardo Ramos4 days ago

Set For First Fight In Over A Year
Charles Jourdain4 days ago

Hoping To Bring UFC Record Above .500
Marina Rodriguez4 days ago

Gets A Rematch At UFC Vegas 79
Dan Ige4 days ago

Enters UFC Vegas 79 On Two-Fight Win Streak
Bryce Mitchell4 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back After First Career Loss

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP