X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2021 Overvalued Draft Picks - Starting Pitchers

Jon Anderson identifies fantasy baseball starting pitchers he is fading at their current ADPs as overvalued draft avoids for the 2021 MLB season.

I recently finished the grueling process of making my 2021 SP ranks one-by-one. What I did was go rotation-by-rotation and insert every pitcher into my list as I went along, taking a close look at each guy. This led to me having lots of knowledge on the player pool for the 2021 season, and having a list of rankings that came with no prior biases.

I previously identified some undervalued starters, so if you have not seen that yet be sure to check it out.

In this piece, I will go through some names that I have ranked significantly lower than their current ADP, based on NFBC draft results.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers

I am not as committed to this take as the rest of what you will see below, but I figured to include Buehler here. I have him as my #11 SP right now, and he is currently the sixth pitcher off the board in NFBC drafts. There is no questioning his abilities, he has a fantastic arm and is a huge upside starter every night he takes the mound. The issue is the team he plays for.

Since the 2017 season, the maximum number of innings a Dodgers pitcher has thrown in 182.2 innings (Hyun Jin Ryu in 2019). Buehler has topped out at 182.1 (in 2019). The main reason for this two-fold. First, the Dodgers just have not played many meaningful regular-season games, they routinely win the NL West running away. Secondly, they have no shortage of capable starting pitchers, so they never find themselves in need of maxing out their starters. This gives them the ability to ease their big arms into the playoffs, limiting their workload in the second half of the season.

It is possible that the Padres compete with the Dodgers this year, which would help. It is also true that every time is likely to limit their starter's innings after nobody even eclipsed 100 innings in 2020. These two things are good news for Buehler's fantasy stock, but it doesn't completely ease my doubts.

Buehler is also the rare ace that throws one pitch over 50% of the time, throwing his four-seamer 53% of the time last season. It's a great pitch, and he has never had trouble posting great numbers, but it is just another thing that makes me lower on him than the field.

 

Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals ace is currently the 11th pitcher off the board in drafts, and I have him as my #16 guy. His bad 4.91 ERA in 2020 has nothing to do with this either. It was a really goofy season for Flaherty and the Cardinals, so I'm willing to throw it all out. My reasoning for having him lower than the field is just that he does not the dominant stuff you typically see in the top twenty. He throws a four-seamer nearly 50% of the time that averages just 94 miles per hour.

Another huge chunk of his distribution is made up of sliders. The four-seamer and slider make up nearly 75% of his pitches, again, not very typical of a true fantasy ace. He has certainly posted some great stats in his young career, but I see Flaherty as more of an SP2 than the SP1 the rankings are showing him to be.

 

Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres

Lamet is one of the most unique starters in the league, throwing a slider 53% of the time last year. Another 37% of his distribution was made up by a four-seamer. The slider is one of the hardest pitches to locate, and the four-seamer is typically the pitch that gets out of the ballpark at the highest rate. And yet, Lamet posted a great walk rate (7.5%) and an elite home run rate (0.65 HR/9). His low ground-ball rate makes all kinds of sense with that arsenal, but it certainly does not support him being great at preventing the long ball.

After earning Cy Young votes in 2020, Lamet has vaulted up draft boards currently being the 23rd pitcher taken. I have him at #28 and will probably move him down further. I see regression coming for him in walks and home runs, which could make 2021 tough on him.

 

Zach Plesac, Cleveland Indians

A stellar 2020 season boosted Plesac's draft stock up massively. He is currently the 20th pitcher off the board in NFBC leagues, and he comes in at #34 on my board. Plesac has a deep arsenal and stellar command, but the truth is that his success has come in such a small sample. He was not very impressive in 115.2 innings in 2019 (18.5% strikeout rate, 1.23 WHIP), and that is not going to be completely erased by 55 innings in 2020 (27.7% strikeout rate, 0.80 WHIP). He does not have much velocity or movement on any of his pitches, and he gives up tons of fly balls (career 39% ground-ball rate).

He has four pitches and locates them all well, which keeps his floor pretty high, but I think the field has overreacted on Plesac.

 

Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies

Expectations are being tempered on Wheeler, as he is the 31st pitcher off the board in NFBC. I still have him a step behind that at #41 on my list. He did post an enticing 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 2020, but that came with a huge drop-off in strikeouts (a career-low 18.4% strikeout rate). Wheeler threw more four-seamers and fewer sinkers in 2020, and yet somehow saw his ground-ball climb up to 55%. No part of that makes sense to me. What we have now is a guy who took a big step backward in strikeouts and benefitted hugely from a ground-ball rate I do not see as sustainable. I'll pass on Wheeler as a top thirty starter without thinking twice.

 

Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals

The young Royals starter threw a soft sinker 57% of the time and yet posted a respectable strikeout rate of 23%. Hitters made contact on 83% of their swings against the sinker, so him having a decent strikeout rate just does not make any sense. He is a ground-ball specialist, and that will continue, but I cannot see his draft price (66th SP off the board) being justified seeing how he will almost certainly have a worse strikeout rate in 2021 than he did in 2020. Strikeouts are not the be-all-end-all in fantasy, but a guy allowing this much contact is unlikely to help you in WHIP either, so I'm firmly off of Singer.

 

Marco Gonzales, Seattle Mariners

The same story as Singer here, Gonzales threw a sinker 45% of the time and yet posted a 23% strikeout rate. His sinker was even more hittable than Singer's with an 88% contact rate. Marco had never posted a good WHIP in his career before dropping in a 0.95 mark in 2020, and that is just completely unrepeatable in my opinion. He will remain a decent streaming option given his strong command, but he is not a fantasy-relevant starter in standard leagues. I have him as my number 96 starter, and he is soaring way above that at #59 in NFBC drafts.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2021 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Max Muncy

Injures his Knee on Wednesday Night
Christian Moore

Exits Early with Thumb Irritation
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Josh Naylor

Returning to Diamondbacks Lineup
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs With Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal With Mammoth
Montaric Brown

has Worked With Starters
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Josh Jung

Sent to Triple-A
Jurickson Profar

Officially Reinstated and Hitting in Five-Hole on Wednesday
Spencer Schwellenbach

Going on Injured List With Fractured Elbow
Maxwell Hairston

Facing Sexual-Assault Lawsuit
Tai Felton

Rookie Season Likely to be Spent on Special Teams
LeQuint Allen Jr.

to Have Receiving Role for Jaguars?
Justin Walley

Turning Heads Going into Rookie Season
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
Jamari Thrash

Establishing Himself as Reliable Option
Grayson Murphy

Could Provide Rotational Pass-Rush Depth
Joe Andreessen

in a Good Position to Compete for Backup Job
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Bhayshul Tuten

Needs to Improve Pass Protection
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Brandon Woodruff

Likely to Pitch on Sunday in Miami
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
EDM

Andrew Mangiapane Signs Two-Year Pact With Oilers
SEA

Ryan Lindgren Joins Kraken on Four-Year Contract
PHI

Christian Dvorak Heads to Philadelphia
Logan Stankoven

Signs Long-Term Extension with Hurricanes
NYI

Jonathan Drouin Joins Islanders on Two-Year Contract
NJ

Devils Hand Connor Brown a Four-Year Contract
SJ

John Klingberg Lands in San Jose
William Eklund

Signs Three-Year Extension with Sharks
Will Cuylle

Agrees to Two-Year Contract with Rangers
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Hunter Goodman

Hits Two More Homers Tuesday
Josh Hader

Stays Perfect In Save Conversion On Tuesday
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Shane Baz

Fans 11 Against Athletics
Grant Holmes

Strikes Out 10 in Scoreless Outing
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
T.J. Watt

Trying to Become Highest-Paid Non-QB?
Willson Contreras

Doubtful for Wednesday
George Springer

Clubs Two Homers in Seven-RBI Day
Joshua Palmer

Could be a Sleeper
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Laviska Shenault Jr.

on the Bubble
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Raheem Blackshear

to Work Mostly As Special-Teamer
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Rico Dowdle

Trevor Etienne to Split Carries?
Chuba Hubbard

Should See Majority of Touches in 2025
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Willson Contreras

Avoids Structural Damage on Hand After HBP
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Josh Naylor

Scratched From Tuesday's Lineup Against Giants
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
San Francisco Giants

Giants Exercise Bob Melvin's 2026 Option
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Josh Naylor

Back in Action on Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Suffers Setback
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Nolan Arenado

Dealing with Finger Sprain
Jacob Wilson

Scratched With Hamstring Soreness
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
Charlotte Hornets

Mason Plumlee Heading Back to Charlotte
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Jakob Poeltl

Agrees to a Contract Extension With Raptors
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Vasilije Micić

Vasilije Micic Dealt to Bucks on Tuesday
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Pat Connaughton

Traded to Hornets
Atlanta Hawks

Luke Kennard Lands in Atlanta
Breece Hall

Aiming to Prove He is "Still One of the Best in the League"
T.J. Watt

Steelers Not Planning to Trade T.J. Watt
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF