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Indianapolis Colts running back Marlon Mack is an overhyped sleeper for 2018 fantasy football drafts. Justin Carter outlines the reasons why Mack will be overdrafted and may be an ADP bust.
Often, fantasy football sleepers stop being sleepers because so many people have collectively decided that they are sleepers and they start to jump up draft boards. When the players end up being drafted above their worth, you end up with a spot on your roster that isn't giving you maximum value. Don't do that. Don't fall for the hype train in 2018.
Indianapolis Colts running back Marlon Mack is a popular sleeper candidate this season now that Frank Gore is gone, but there are a lot of reasons why Mack's sleeper hype is unwarranted. That isn't to say he'll be in line to have a bad season, but if his ADP rises based on the hype of the fantasy football community, you might not want to grab Mack.
Below are some reasons why Marlon Mack's sleeper status is becoming a little too much in 2018.
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Are We Really About To Trust A Colts Running Back?
Look, I don't dislike Marlon Mack. He's my fourth running back in RotoBaller's dynasty league and I want him to succeed, but there's also a reason that I feel really, really bad about my running back rotation. I'm not sure if Mack is someone I trust this season.
Marlon Mack is a Colts running back. Under former head coach Chuck Pagano, here were the PPR fantasy finishes for the Colts lead back over his tenure: 21, 12, 14, 21, 27, 33. Now, Pagano is gone, but new head coach Frank Reich, a former quarterback, has four seasons as an offensive coordinator under his belt, where his teams have produced the following finishes from the running back spot: 45, 24, 3, 25.
Now, that number three finish in 2015 stands out, when Danny Woodhead was the RB3 in PPR, but Woodhead was also a back whose primary focus was on pass catching -- Woodhead only had 336 yards on the ground, but he added 755 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Mack did have 21 catches last season, but his college stats and Indianapolis' need for someone to take Frank Gore's rushing load suggests to me that Mack won't look anything at all like 2015 Danny Woodhead, which is definitely the least hot take I can imagine, since very few backs can be 2015 Danny Woodhead. The main takeaway here, though, is that I see nothing in Reich's history as an offensive coordinator to suggest that there will be wide-scale changes to the way the Colts approach things offensively, especially with quarterback Andrew Luck expected to return after missing all of last season.
How Good Is Marlon Mack and How Safe Is His Role?
Two related questions here: how good is Marlon Mack and how safe is his hold on the team's top spot?
Let's address the question of his quality first. Mack was inconsistent last season, but you can also claim that there was too small of a sample size to really evaluate him. I get that, but I think 93 carries over the course of the season is enough to give us some idea of what Mack can do and my takeaway is...okay. Mack has good speed and can break off long runs as he did on runs of 22 yards and 35 yards against the 49ers last season, but he also found himself swallowed up in the backfield more than you'd like to see. We can attribute some of that blame on the Colts offensive line, which allowed their backs the third-fewest number of yards before first contact, but I don't think I can let Mack off the hook that easily. Watching film, there are too many times he runs into a crowd. There were also too many times I saw him drop passes out of the backfield. Yes, there's some explosiveness here, but I worry about Mack from a consistency point-of-view.
Meanwhile, other players lurk in the Colts rotation. Rookie Nyheim Hines is already expected to see third down duties and has spent time out in the slot during training camp, suggesting that he might be more in line for PPR sleeper status than Mack. Another rookie running back, Jordan Wilkens, averaged 6.5 yards per carry last season at Ole Miss and has impressed during training camp as well. All three guys have spent time working with the first team, suggesting we're in for a committee approach in this backfield. Committees don't always scare me, but on a team that should make their way back into the top 10 for passing play percentage with Luck back in the fold, I'm staying away from Mack.
