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Read our best NRFI betting picks today - Major League Baseball NRFI predictions for 7/22/2025. No Runs First Inning (NRFI) betting tips, expert MLB predictions, odds, and trends.
Tuesday's slate of MLB games features a few of baseball's premier right-handed starters, including a dynamic duel in Seattle between Logan Gilbert and Jacob Misiorowski.
We went 3-2 in my first edition of NRFI picks before the All-Star break, and we'll shoot for a better percentage on a jam-packed Tuesday slate in MLB. There are four NRFI spots worth targeting, and we will again take our one swing on a YRFI and hope for a better result than our previous pick.
On this page, I'll provide my best NRFI and YRFI bets today for MLB games on Tuesday, July 22, 2025. Monitor the weather and lineups for each team before placing your wagers. Odds for these bets are from DraftKings or FanDuel Sportsbook.
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What Are MLB NRFI/YRFI Bets?
NRFI bets are bets where you try to pick whether or not two MLB teams will combine for one run in the first inning. YRFI stands for "Yes Run First Inning," while NRFI means "No Run First Inning."
We prefer to target NRFI because it tends to occur more frequently, which is why you usually see shorter odds than on YRFI. This strategy can change on a slate with worse pitching options, and we have seen offenses start to push back against the NRFI in the summer months, when hitting conditions are better.
The best part of NRFI wagers is how they settle so quickly. This is a fun sweat, as these six outs can be thrilling, especially if your pitcher works his way out of a jam. Remember to only go with a smaller percentage of your bankroll because this can be a volatile market, with even the best pitchers struggling in the first inning.
Best First Inning Bets Today (July 22, 2025)
- Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates: 6:40 pm
- Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies: 6:45 pm
- San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves: 7:15 pm
- Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs: 8:05 pm
- Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners: 9:40 pm
Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates NRFI (-132 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- DET: Casey Mize
- PIT: Mitch Keller
Casey Mize has had the breakthrough season everyone has been looking for from the former number one overall pick, owning a 3.15 ERA and 1.22 WHIP across 88.2 innings en route to his first career All-Star appearance. Keller has continued to be reliable year in and year out, as he holds a 3.48 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 119 innings and will likely be in trade rumors here in the coming days.
The Pirates' bats have been miserable in July, scoring just 29 runs in 14 games, with the next closest team having 47. They are also fresh off a sweep against the lowly White Sox, where they scored just seven runs in the series.
Seven scoreless innings, spot-on fastball command and 11 groundball outs.
𝙏𝙝𝙞𝙨 is what the Tigers expected when they drafted Casey Mize No. 1 in 2018. pic.twitter.com/vX1WHxk6wA
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) July 6, 2025
The odds are a tad juiced in a matchup with two credible big league pitchers, and a struggling offense that is 0-10 for their last 10 games scoring in the first inning. While the Tigers profile as a good-hitting team, they have scored in just seven of their last 30 first innings. Both starters have promising first-inning shutout records for the season as well, with Mize at 14-2 and Keller at 15-5.
Boston Red Sox at Philadelphia Phillies NRFI (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- BOS: Richard Fitts
- DET: Cristopher Sanchez
Cristopher Sanchez is one of baseball's best left-handed starters and groundball maestros. Since the start of June, he is tied with Garrett Crochet with the second most fWAR among pitchers, only trailing Tarik Skubal. Fitts has spent time on the injured list, but has come back and looked sharp in recent outings.
Cristopher Sánchez, Nasty Changeups. 👌👌 pic.twitter.com/Gu7owzbynj
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 8, 2025
They've been especially stingy in the first inning as both own the first-inning shutout records you love to see. Fitts, in his smaller sample, is 7-1 on the year, and Sanchez is 15-4. As for the offenses, the Red Sox have scored just once in their last 1o first innings. The Phillies are a tad better, with three in their previous 10.
San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves NRFI (+105 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- SF: Landen Roupp
- KCR: Davis Daniel
Landen Roupp has emerged as a consistent piece of the Giants' rotation. His most notable pitch is his curveball, which the Braves have had trouble with. The right-hander throws it roughly 36% of the time, and it has the best whiff rate of any pitch in his arsenal at 36%.
The Braves are hitting just .165 in at-bats ending in curveballs from right-handed pitchers, easily the worst in baseball, with the next closest being the Tigers at .180. It's a favorable spot for Roupp to get off to a quick start.
Landen Roupp, Filthy 79mph Curveball. 😷 pic.twitter.com/KmCkj9nT3o
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 12, 2025
Davis Daniel is making just his third appearance of the season, so there is the element in that the Giants haven't seen much of him, and the Giants' bats have scored only twice in their last 10 first innings.
Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs YRFI (-120 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- KC: Rich Hill
- CHC: Matthew Boyd
45-year-old Rich Hill makes his return to the big leagues in Chicago on Tuesday night, and he gets the treat of facing the daunting Cubs lineup. The top of the Cubs' lineup is especially lethal, and that's what we are targeting with this YRFI pick. While Matthew Boyd has been excellent for the Cubs all season, the Royals have been much better against southpaws since the beginning of June. Their .753 OPS against them ranks eighth best, and their .335 xWOBA is third best.
45-year-old Rich Hill is back for his 21st season!
Hill is reportedly being called up by the Royals, per https://t.co/Z3s2EpgF39's @Anne__Rogers. pic.twitter.com/qaubA8v7dA
— MLB (@MLB) July 21, 2025
We get a pretty acceptable price here for a big mismatch. The soft-tossing lefty at this stage of his career versus one of the very best lineups in the league is worth betting on.
Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners NRFI (-146 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Starting Pitchers
- MIL: Jacob Misiorowski
- SEA: Logan Gilbert
The Brewers are the hottest team in baseball, winning 11 straight and now owning the best record in the league. That feeds into a monster pitching matchup Tuesday night with Misiorowski and Gilbert.
Jacob Misiorowski's meteoric rise through the big leagues lands him atop https://t.co/Z3s2EpgF39's NL Rookie of the Year Poll ☄️ pic.twitter.com/alnrqZrQdG
— MLB (@MLB) July 17, 2025
The Mariners haven't scored a run in any of their last 10 first innings, and just four in their last 30. And now the Miz is coming to town. The Brewers sold our YRFI last week against the Nationals' Shinnosuke Ogasawara, as they've been equally ineffective in the first inning, scoring just six times in their last 30.
Two dominant pitchers, two offenses that struggle to get off to fast starts, and one of the best pitchers' parks is a good combination. Of course, the price is a bit juiced, so there is a parlay below if you would like the option.
NRFI Parlay in DET/PIT + MIL/SEA: +199 FanDuel
Notable NRFI/YRFI MLB Trends: Last 10 Games
- Best NRFI hit rate: Mariners, Pirates (100%)
- Best YRFI hit rate: Reds (40%)
- Most First Inning Home Runs: Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Athletics, Guardians (4)
- Best First Inning Batting Average: Orioles (.395)
- Best First Inning On-Base Percentage: Angels (.435)
Conclusion
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