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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on November 22, 2023.
All other Premium Tools and Content can be accessed on the premium dashboard.
Tuesday night, zero games. Thursday night, zero games. Wednesday night, 23 million games (don’t check my math on that). Thanks, NHL! There are a ton of games tonight, but we are going to look at the positives as it’ll keep ownership down on many teams in great spots. Hockey will be on all night, and that’s a great thing as well. Finally, there’s a six-game Turbo slate and a three-game late slate that are both more manageable. It’s going to be a great night of hockey. Happy Thanksgiving to all who celebrate.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; five of which cost $20 or less to enter and have a top prize of $1,000 or more, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $20,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $5.55 entry tournament with a $4,000 first prize and a $33 entry, 106-person GPP with $1,000 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
St. Louis Blues (STL1 - Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas)
That’s right, there are 28 teams on the slate tonight and we are highlighting a St.Louis Blues team that is averaging 1.55 goals per 60 minutes in road games! Take a closer look and you’ll see that they scored three or more goals in three of their last five games so they’re not quite as bad as the data would suggest. Their expected goals per 60 on the road is 2.29, so there’s a lot of positive regression to be had. Pavel Buchnevich has been white hot over the last week or so with five goals, two assists, and 21 shots on goal over his last five games, so there is some upside to be had here.
The real reason we are on this line has nothing to do with how the Blues are playing but instead is due to how poorly the Arizona Coyotes have been playing. The team is allowing nearly three goals per 60 minutes at home in five-on-five play and surrenders 12.32 high-danger chances per game. More importantly, the top line for the Blues is projected to spend the majority of their ice team facing the defensive pairing of Stecher/Brown. That is one of the best matchups a line can face in the entire NHL. St Louis is cheap enough that you won’t have to hunt value to get them into your lineup, and they’ll carry next to no ownership so if they pop off you’ll have them all to yourselves. This is exactly the kind of play to make on a giant slate in the hopes of lapping a tournament field.
Winnipeg Jets (WPG1 - Mark Scheifele, Alex Iafallo, Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey)
We have had the Winnipeg Jets as a top stack a couple of times this year and they’ve come through on both occasions. This is a team that dominates when they are supposed to, and the data suggests that tonight could very well be one of those nights. Jonas Johansson has been awful in net for the Lightning, allowing nearly three and a half goals per game and saving only 94% of the unblocked shots he’s faced. Despite this, there’s still negative regression to be had for Tampa Bay as they’ve allowed three-quarters of a goal fewer per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations at home this year. They also have given up nearly 13 high-danger chances per game, which is a very high number.
The defensive pairing we want to attack is Hedman/Perbix, and they should be on the ice mostly against the Jets' first and second lines. The reason that the top line gets the nod tonight is their immense upside gives them the ability to take advantage of such a generous defensive pairing. In their last six games, this line (including defenseman Josh Morrissey) has produced GPP-winning scores four times. Overall, the quartet has combined to average two goals, five assists, and ten shots on goal per game over that six-game stretch.
New York Rangers (NYR2 - Artemi Panarin, Vincent Trocheck, Alexis Lafreniere, Jacob Trouba)
Speaking of hot lines, the Rangers' second line is scorching. Vincent Trocheck has scored double-digit fantasy points in five straight games on the strength of four goals, six assists, and eleven shots on goal. Artemi Panarin never got cold, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all but three games this season. He’s averaging over four shots on goal per game and is lethal on the power play. Alexis Lafreniere is less consistent than Trocheck or Panarin, but he’s an aggressive player who has scored in bunches this year. Finally, Jacob Trouba is filling in nicely for Adam Fox, as he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in all but five games this year, and he’s recorded at least four SABS (shots and blocked shots) in all but two games; including eleven games with the blocked shot bonus.
The Penguins offense has been solid this year, but their defense can be exploited and they are due for negative regression. Pittsburgh has allowed 2.33 goals per 60 minutes at home this year, but data says they should have allowed just about three goals. They give up a lot of high-danger chances, and Tristan Jarry has been average a best in net.
Others in consideration: FLA2, BUF1, CHI1, DAL1, COL2, PIT1
Every NHL player with 4+ goals and 7+ assists in their last 6 games:
— Vincent Trocheck
That's the list pic.twitter.com/3rJq8Y1TpU
— RangersMuse (@nyrangersmuse) November 21, 2023
Top Value Stack of the Night
Carolina Hurricanes (CAR3 - Jesper Fast, Jordan Staal, Jordan Martinook)
To quote Sean (@bignumber55), “Carolina’s third line is a wagon at home.” They were outstanding at home last year, and they continue to play well together this year. They have played a ton together this season and they have an xGF/60 of 3.27, which is a very high number. Overall, the Canes are due for positive regression, averaging three-quarters of a goal fewer per game at home than the data would suggest. If they were to hit their expectations, then they’d be looking at one of the highest goal totals on the slate.
They are going to spend a lot of time on the ice with an exploitable defensive pairing, and they are cheap enough to allow you to spend up on a main stack, goalie, and one-off defender. There are a lot of places to go for value on a fourteen-game slate, but this is one of the better options given their matchup and history.
Others in consideration: NJ2, WPG2, NYR3, CBJ2, NYI3, COL2, MTL3, ANH2, SEA3
Top Goalies to Target
John Gibson (Anaheim Ducks)
For such a large slate, there aren’t that many goalies who look very good. Gibson has been solid this year, scoring double-digit fantasy points in 64% of his starts this year. He’s stifled good offenses like Vegas, Florida, and Pittsburgh; scoring more than 16 DraftKings points against each of those teams. Gibson has been consistent this year as well, never allowing more than three goals per game. He doesn’t have as much upside as some of the other goalies on this slate, but his ability to not get blown out gives him the kind of floor we look for in cash games. Montreal is far from a scary offense, and a game of 30 saves, two goals allowed, and a win (about 20 DraftKings points) is well within reason.
Others in consideration (GPP): Carter Hart, Igor Shesterkin, Petr Mrazek, Jordan Binnington, Jacob Markstrom, Jake Oettinger
Others in consideration (Cash): Linus Ullmark, Adin Hill, Thacher Demko
