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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on November 14, 2023.
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We have been rolling here at RotoBaller the last few weeks now that we have data, and the NHL has gifted us with the beauty of a nine-game slate tonight. No Edmonton, no Toronto, no Rangers, and no Colorado means that the most public and dangerous teams are off the slate. That means skill will win the day as we won’t have to worry about forcing in or fading those high-volume offenses.
There are two stacks that stand out more than others according to the data, and they both happen to be late-night hammers. There are also a few very nice value stacks that will help us fit those big boys into our lineups. DraftKings has their usual $5 entry, $5000 to first place GPP, while FanDuel’s $5 entry offers $4000 to first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
Tampa Bay Lightning (TB1 - Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel)
I love it when the data points to the Lightning top line because it allows me to talk about the Brandon Hagel Corollary (not sure if it’s an actual corollary, but it sounds so darn fancy; also, I could totally be misremembering this story but the point remains the same).
You see, Hagel was the first player that Sean and I realized was the key to our “stack the entire line” philosophy. Whenever people would stack the Lightning, they would do so with Nikita Kucherov and Brayden Point (or whoever was on the top line at the time), but they’d fade Hagel. If Hagel was the one who scored the goal for that line, you’d get two assists at most but you’d miss out on the main point producer..and you’d be missing out on that guy at an extremely low ownership.
Using guys like Hagel (or Barbashev, or Bertuzzi, or Drouin, etc.) would instantly jump you up a GPP leaderboard if they were involved in the goal-scoring for their team. We have won lots of money using this strategy. Stack entire lines when you can.
As for tonight, this is an easy stack to point to as this line is on fire (especially Kucherov) and the Blues have been awful at home. This is the exact same spot we went to last Tuesday with the Jets' top line and they were highly profitable. I don’t expect the Lightning to be nearly as low-owned, but they are in a better spot than any other team and project to be the highest-scoring line on the slate.
They will most likely face the defensive pairing of Paryoko/Krug and that’s who we want to attack on St. Louis. You can differentiate your lineup by using all three players on the line, or you can add Victor Hedman on defense to make it a four-man stack. There are enough value stacks you can get to that will pair well with Tampa Bay.
Florida Panthers (FLA2 - Matthew Tkachuk, Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett)
Any team facing the Sharks is one that will be on our radar. If that team happens to be a high-volume team with goal-scoring specialists, then you can almost guarantee that they’ll be a top stack. Florida averages 34.2 shots on goal per game, the second-highest total on the slate.
They feature Matthew Tkachuk (13 or more DraftKings points in 10 of 14 games this year) and Carter Verhaeghe (three or more shots on goal in 11 straight games). This a very solid offense that has some room to grow, as they’ve scored nearly three-quarters of a goal fewer per game on the road than expected.
Meanwhile, the Sharks are awful defensively. It’s truly difficult to pinpoint which defensive pairing to attack as all three have an xGA/60 of more than three and have allowed an inordinate amount of high-danger chances per game. Overall, the team has allowed 16.7 high-danger chances per game and even though they are due for some positive regression defensively, they still project to allow well over three goals per game in five-on-five situations at home. That’s a terrible number and one we should be happy to attack.
Pittsburgh Penguins (PIT2 - Evgeni Malkin, Riley Smith, Rickard Rakell)
There are a number of mid-range teams with good matchups tonight, but Pittsburgh has the best mix of matchup and offensive talent. The Blue Jackets have struggled defensively this year, yet they somehow have room to get worse at home. They’ve allowed 2.63 goals per 60 minutes in five-on-five situations, but the data says they should be closer to three goals allowed. Giving up 12.5 high-danger chances per game doesn’t help them, and the Penguins are a team that can take advantage of those situations.
For their part, the Pens are actually playing a little above their head on the road, averaging 3.64 goals per 60 in five-on-five play. Even with regression, they are expected to score about three goals per game, which is a strong number. Rickard Rakell hasn’t played up to snuff yet this year (though he does average twice as many points per game on the road), but that’s kept his price low enough to make this a relatively affordable stack. You can take advantage of those savings and add Erik Karlsson to your stack, and he is one of the best offensive forwards in the league.
Others in consideration: BOS1, NSH1, WSH1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Dallas Stars (DAL3 - Wyatt Johnston, Jamie Benn, Evgenii Dadonov)
When the Stars play at home, you generally look to play their top line, but this trio is one of the better third (or second, depending on how the Stars list them) lines in the NHL. Both Arizona and Dallas are due for regression in our favor, as the Stars have scored about half a goal less, and the Coyotes have allowed half a goal less than the data would expect in five-on-five action per 60 minutes.
The Coyotes have two defensive pairings that we want to target, and this line is going to be on the ice for the most time with them. Wyatt Johnston is an underpriced superstar-in-waiting, and as a group, this line has popped off about four times this year (about 30% of their games). They have combined to score nearly 10 more DraftKings points per game at home this season, and with the great matchup, this looks to be another night where they could produce big value.
Others in consideration: BOS2, BUF2, CGY2
Top Goalies to Target
Jake Allen (Montreal Canadiens)
He’s not a fun name to click, but Jake Allen has had exactly one bad game all year for fantasy. Make no mistake, that one bad game was really bad (-10.6 DraftKings points), but in his other six starts, he didn’t score less than 11 DraftKings points. He’s scored over 20 DraftKings points in half of those starts, and there aren’t many goalies who have more than that.
I’ve watched him play before, so I don’t totally trust Allen, but he’s facing a ton of shots (volume is great for goalies) and the Flames take more than enough shots (32.2 per game) to maintain that volume. I like how the Flames' second line profiles as a value option, but that has more to do with the Canadiens' defense rather than anything Allen has done. At just $7400, he’s a strong value given his potential return. Because of his consistency, he can be used in all game formats.
Others in consideration (GPP): John Gibson, Darcy Kuemper, Sergei Bobrovsky
Others in consideration (Cash): Logan Thompson, Linus Ullmark, Jake Oettinger, Tristan Jarry
