RADIO
RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on December 23, 2023.
All other Premium Tools and Content can be accessed on the premium dashboard.
Tonight we get one more monster slate before the NHL goes on a three-day hiatus for the Christmas holiday. Almost every major team in the league is on this slate, and many of them are in great spots. As is usually the case with big slates, the more teams available the tighter I’m going to make my personal player pool. You can use the Heat Map to see all of the stacks I’m recommending, but for the most part, I’m building my teams around the premium blue stacks and trying to find some value to make their high prices fit.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options, highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize. There is money to be won tonight, so let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
St. Louis Blues (STL1 - Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich, Jordan Kyrou)
No team on tonight’s slate has a better matchup than the St. Louis Blues. They are playing at home against a Blackhawks team that is on the second night of a road back-to-back. Chicago has been awful on the road, allowing a slate-high 4.07 even-strength goals per 60 minutes of their last ten road games. Even with positive defensive regression, they’ve been expected to allow over three goals per 60 minutes; a number we’d want to attack. The Blackhawks' defense has been super leaky, giving up a slate-high 15.52 high-danger chances per game over their last ten road games.
Meanwhile, the Blues offense has been hot at home. They’re scoring an average of 3.89 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games. Even with negative regression, they’d be scoring around three goals per 60 minutes; a number that’s more than acceptable from an offense priced in this range. The trio of Buchnevich, Kyrou, and Thomas have combined for four goals and eight assists over their last three home games, and in two games against Chicago, they have one goal and five assists. This is a great matchup and at their prices, you can create a balanced lineup rather than having to punt your second stack.
JORDAN KYROU, ARE YOU SERIOUS?! 🤯
This. Is. Incredible. pic.twitter.com/POH8athjUm
— NHL (@NHL) December 7, 2023
New York Rangers (NYR2 - Artemi Panarin, Alexis Lafreniere, Vincent Trocheck, Adam Fox)
The New York Rangers have the best power play in the NHL, scoring an average of 31.3% of the time when they have the man advantage. They also have been hot at even-strength, averaging 3.25 goals per 60 minutes of their last ten home games. Tonight they take that power play strength and add it to an even-strength matchup that is one of the most advantageous on the the slate. The Sabres road defense leaves much to be desired. They have allowed 2.97 even-strength goals per 60 minutes and 14.61 high-danger chances per game over their last ten road game.
The second line for New York should get the best matchup on the team, spending the most time on the ice with Buffalo’s most generous defensive pair. Panarin, Trocheck, and Fox all play on the top power play line, so you’ll get a big-time correlation there as well. If you wanted to get a bit wacky, you can replace Lafreniere with Mika Zibanejad and just attack the power play line given New York’s prowess with the extra man on the ice.
Colorado Avalanche (COL1 - Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin)
Unfortunately, it is impossible to roll out a full Avalanches stack that includes Cale Makar on either DraftKings or FanDuel given their price points. It’s too bad that you can’t because all four of these guys are playing at the highest level. As a team, the Avalanche have scored 3.42 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games. Over their last ten games, this line has scored 20 goals and recorded 27 assists; just a stupidly high level of productivity.
Tonight’s matchup is incredible, as they are facing a Coyotes team that can’t stop anyone on the road. Over their last ten road games, Arizona has allowed nearly three even-strength goals per 60 minutes, yet their expected goals allowed is half a goal higher. They are giving up an average of 15.46 high-danger chances a game, which is one of the biggest numbers we’ve seen all year. What we have here is a bad defense that’s projected to be even worse against the hottest offense in the league. Yeah, we are getting to some Colorado tonight!
Others in consideration: TOR1, VAN1, VAN2, NJ1, CAR2, MIN1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Columbus Blue Jackets (CBJ1 - Johnny Gaudreau, Justin Danforth, Adam Fantilli, Zach Werenski)
The Toronto Maple Leafs have one of the worst defenses in the entire NHL. Over their last ten games, they have allowed 3.13 even-strength goals per 60 minutes, and advanced data confirms that this high number is legitimate as their expected goals allowed is 3.03; a negligible difference from the actual number. The goaltending for Toronto hasn’t been strong either, and it hasn’t made much of a difference if it’s Ilya Samsonov or Martin Jones in net. Both goalies allow three or more goals in a significant number of their starts, and they aren’t helped by the fact that the defense in front of them has allowed an average of 14.3 high-danger chances per game on the road over their last ten games.
The last time I recommended the Blue Jackets as a play was ten days ago when they faced the Maple Leafs. I hypothesized that the move of Adam Fantilli to the top line would spark Columbus, and since that game, it’s looking like the prediction has at least partially come true. The duo of Fantilli and Johnny Gaudreau have combined for two goals and six assists in the three games since these two teams last met. Justin Danforth hasn’t done much, but at $3,500 all you’re hoping for is a lucky assist to help jump the field. Zach Werenski has been consistently great all year, as he’s a SABS (shots and blocked shots) machine and has scored double-digit fantasy points in five of his last seven games on the back of an average of about five and a half SABS per game.
Others in consideration: STL2, NYR3, CHI2
Top Goalies to Target
Alex Nedeljkovic (Pittsburgh Penguins)
It looks like the Pittsburgh Penguins may have made a switch to their top goalie, as Alex Nedeljkovic has outplayed Tristan Jarry since his return to the lineup. Nedj hasn't allowed more than three goals in any game since his second start of the year on October 24, a string of seven appearances. He has scored eleven or more DraftKings points in all but one of those seven games, with three of those games going for more than 18 DraftKings points. Nedeljkovic isn't expensive by any means, coming in at $7,400, meaning you won't have to sacrifice upside with your stacks to find a spot for him in your lineup. The Senators are a mediocre offense, and over their last ten games, they have averaged under two and a half even-strength goals per 60 minutes at home. I'd prefer to use Nedj as a tournament option, but at his price point, he's usable in cash games as a punt option.
Others in consideration (GPP): Ilya Sorokin, Pyotr Kochetkov, Joey Daccord, Charlie Lindgren, Martin Jones, Marc-Andre Fleury
Others in consideration (Cash): Cam Talbot, Thatcher Demko
