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RotoBaller's NHL Premium Picks and Analysis for the DFS slate on FanDuel and DraftKings on December 16, 2023.
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A 13-game night slate on a Saturday? Ok, NHL, we see you. It’s very out of the ordinary to see this many games on any non-Tuesday NHL slate, let alone a Saturday night where we usually get eight or so games. There are a lot of fun matchups, and with so many games we won’t be locked into any single team. Edmonton is on the slate, but their matchup isn’t so strong that we should feel forced to use them. As is usually the case with bigger slates, I’m limiting my pool of potential stacks to only those teams that have prime matchups; no need to get cute with so many options.
DraftKings has its usual array of low-cost GPP options; highlighted by the $15-entry Kick Save with a top prize of $10,000. Meanwhile, Fanduel has a $4.44 entry tournament with a $2,000 first prize and a $33 entry, 71-person GPP with $500 for first place. There is a lot of money out there for big spenders and casual players alike. Let’s get that cash!
This is going to be a fun slate with a ton of stacking options. My goal is to help you narrow down your plays to get the most bang for your DFS buck. Be sure to check out all of our NHL articles and NHL DFS tools, including our daily NHL Heat Map. NHL Premium members can find many members of the RotoBaller NHL team in Discord leading up to lock to answer all of your lineup questions.
Top Three Stacks of the Night
New Jersey Devils (NJ1 - Jack Hughes, Tyler Toffoli, Jesper Bratt)
One team that stands out to me on the Heat Map is the New Jersey Devils. They may be on the road tonight, but all the data points heavily in their favor. They’ve scored nearly two and a half even-strength goals per 60 minutes on the road over their last ten games, but advanced data suggests that there’s some room to grow. While that’s good to see, what’s even better is the matchup that the Devils have. Columbus has allowed 3.05 even-strength goals per 60 minutes at home over their last ten games, which is a monster number, yet their expected goals allowed are higher than that. The team is also allowing over 13 high-danger chances per game at home over their last ten games; something Jack Huges, Tyler Toffoli, and Jesper Bratt can take advantage of.
Bratt and Hughes are scorching right now, having combined for over 30 DraftKings points in five of their last six games. Toffoli has a large range of outcomes, but he’s been an elite striker in the past and has three games of two or more goals this year. That’s a big “yikes” for Blue Jackets fans, but music to the ears of those who want to stack New Jersey.
Montreal Canadiens (MTL1 - Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, Juraj Slafkovsky, Mike Matheson)
I went back and forth on whether to include Montreal as a top stack over the likes of Edmonton and Dallas, especially with Semyon Varlamov in net for the Islanders, but ultimately decided to go with them based on the strength (or lack thereof) of advanced data. The Islanders' defense has been playing so poorly on the road, only getting bailed out by great seasons from Varlamov and Ilya Sorokin. New York has allowed 2.27 even-strength goals per 60 minutes on the road over their last ten games, but their expected goals allowed 3.08. That’s a huge difference, and any slippage in quality from the Islanders goaltenders could lead to disastrous results for their defense.
It doesn’t help that New York is allowing 13.4 high-danger chances per game on the road over their last ten games, the second-highest total on the slate. On the flip side, Montreal has been playing poorly at home offensively, scoring 1.77 even-strength goals per 60 minutes at home over their last ten games, but their expected goals is 2.77. The combination of potential negative regression for New York’s defense and positive regression for Montreal’s offense could lead to a big number at low ownership from Les Habitants.
Dallas Stars (DAL2 - Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin, Mason, Marchment)
No team in the NHL plays worse defense at home than the St. Louis Blues. They have allowed over three even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten games, yet their expected goals allowed are even higher. They have also allowed 14.63 high-danger chances per game at home, the highest number on the slate by over a full chance per game. What sets the Blues apart from other defenses on this slate is that there isn’t a defensive pairing for them that’s playing well. Their top pairing isn’t as awful as the other two, but on most teams, they’d be the duo we wanted to attack.
That means it’s a little bit of a crapshoot as to which Stars line we want to use, but the second line should see the most ice time with the second and third pairings for St. Lous so they get the nod today. The second line for Dallas is significantly cheaper than the top line, and they’re not playing all that much differently. They came through for us last night and tonight gets an even better matchup. If you felt more comfortable with the Dallas third line it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world as both are in great positions to succeed.
Others in consideration: EDM2, COL1, NYI2, BOS1, NSH1, PIT1
Top Value Stack of the Night
Colorado Avalanche (COL3 - Miles Wood, Logan O’Connor, Ross Colton)
Winnipeg doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses to attack on the defensive end, but they also aren’t so lockdown that we should be avoiding them. Connor Hellebuyck has been playing well so far this year, but data suggests that negative defensive regression could be headed Winnipeg’s way. They have allowed under two even-strength goals per 60 minutes at home over their last ten games, but their expected goals allowed are a healthy 2.63. Meanwhile, the Avalanche have room to grow on offense, having scored nearly three-quarters of a goal fewer per 60 minutes than expected.
The third line for Colorado is hit or miss, but they’ve performed well enough in the past to justify their price points in the right matchup. On a night where we may end up needing to spend down on a secondary stack, this is a good place to look given the regression expected on both sides of the ice.
Others in consideration: DAL3, EDM3, NJ4, TOR3
Top Goalies to Target
Alex Lyon (Detroit Red Wings)
Alex Lyon hasn’t made many starts this year, but when he’s been in net for the Wings he’s been better more often than not. He’s averaging 18 DraftKings points per game, and in four of his six starts, he’s scored 15 or more points. He’s playing well above expectations, allowing nearly a full goal less per game with a save percentage 14 points higher than data would suggest. The Red Wings allow enough volume, giving up an average of over 31 shots on goal per game, while the Flyers are taking nearly 33 shots on goal per game.
Philly is only scoring 1.84 even-strength goals per 60 minutes over their last ten home games, and their expected number of 2.47 goals per 60 minutes isn’t enough to scare me off of Lyon. At just $7,300, Lyon can be played in both cash and GPP lineups, although he’s more of a tournament play given the relative weakness of the Red Wings defense playing in front of him.
Others in consideration (GPP): Sam Montembeault, Tristan Jarry, Connor Hellbuyck, Semyon Varlamov, Joey Daccord, Andrei Vasilevskiy
Others in consideration (Cash): Cam Talbot, Jeremy Swayman, Juuse Saros
