RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey this time of year is a different experience with the showdown slates. The goal is to keep things simple during this time of year. Keep it simple stupid applies here.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Nikita Kucherov who can be a volume shooter tends to be a better play just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and Fanduel for Saturday, September 26th, 2020 at 8:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
Please note this is the back end of a back-to-back. Friday night produced a crazy 5-4 result not from a scoreboard standpoint but from an attacking perspective. Dallas excelled at even strength early while Tampa Bay delivered on the man advantage.
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 9/26
- Dallas Stars (+140) vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (-160)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis
| Team | Goalie GAA | Goalie SS | Goalie RBS | Goalie GSAA | Goalie QS% |
| Anton Khudobin | 2.81 -- 9th | 32.22 | 2 | -0.92 | 45.5 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | 1.96 -- 2nd | 29.78 | 1 | 6.39 | 60.9 |
The numbers I use will be a bit different than Jorge's but the goal is the same. Goalies are ranked based on a minimum of eight starts (more than one round basically).This is to keep you informed of overall statistics from an individual goaltending standpoint. Goalie SS is simply goalie shots seen. Goalie RBS is what we call a really bad start where a goaltender has a save percentage of .850 or less. Goalie GSAA is goals saved above average and the quality start percentage is where a goaltender posts above the league average in save percentage.
Now, what has been lost in some of the big picture numbers is that Anton Khudobin has been more of a victim overreacting to what Tampa Bay does in this round. If anyone has noticed, the Lightning place a premium on creating traffic in front of a goaltender with speed. Players do not stay in a spot long as they are often moving. That movement and Tampa Bay's ability to attack quickly has hurt Dallas often in this series. It has forced Khudobin to cheat way more than usual in the last three games and the result have been Lightning wins.
Andrei Vasilevskiy has had his moments too but as often is the case, the Russian goalie has found a way to play his best when the game matters most. He has made the saves in this series that Khudobin has failed to make. Yes, Khudobin faces more shots but the quality of chances are far greater from Tampa Bay. It is not to say that Dallas has not had their moments. It is just that Tampa Bay executes at a more efficient level.
Power Play Analysis
| Matchup | PP% | Opp PK % |
| Dallas Stars | 23.8% -- 2 | 85.2% -- 2 |
| Tampa Bay Lightning | 22.5% -- 3 | 79.8% -- 12 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate!
The Dallas power play has been vital in their ability to advance through the first three rounds. With Jamie Benn scoring at will and a top unit that features players like John Klinbgberg and Joe Pavelski. Also, do not forget about Alexander Radulov and Miro Heiskanen who are both dangerous as well. Yet this power play in Games 2-4 has gone away from its working formula and become too cute. The results have been a disaster including another 0 for 3 in Game 4.
Tampa Bay's power play went belly up versus the New York Islanders. It then began to bounce back in Games 2 and 3 of this series. The return of Steven Stamkos in Game 3 gave everyone a lift from top to bottom and that had an effect on the man advantage. Tampa Bay looked energized and raring to go throughout the contest. The five-man unit struck fear into the hearts of the Dallas penalty killers throughout Wednesday night. This resulted in Tampa Bay going 3 for 4 on Friday night including the game winner in overtime from Kevin Shattenkirk.
NHL DFS Core Plays- Showdown
Captain Picks
- Victor Hedman ($13,200 DK/ $12,500 FD) - Hedman has enjoyed three excellent games against the Dallas Stars and now has ten goals on the playoffs. He could be the favorite for the Conn Smythe even with Nikita Kucherov enjoying the postseason he has. The reason is simple. Hedman dominates and impacts the game like few defenseman could from the blueline. He has scored double digits in five of his last six DFS outings. This is in spite of just one block over the last three games.
- Nikita Kucherov ($16,500 DK/ $15,000 FD) - Kucherov is the most expensive player on the slate but also carries the highest ceiling of all skaters in this game. He had two assists, five shots, and four more scoring chances in Game 4 against the Dallas Stars. He is the most dangerous player on the ice especially when that first unit power play is in rhythm. With three goals on the power play on Friday night, the Tampa Bay Lightning man advantage is rolling.
- Jamie Benn ($12,000 DK/ $14,000 FD) - If you want look at Dallas then Benn is your guy. Tyler Seguin has just two goals on the postseason, so it has been painful. Also, Miro Heiskanen, other than a few flashes, has been largely inept at scoring goals. Benn has not fared much better but does have nine scoring chances and eight shots in the last three contests. The problem is Dallas just cannot convert many of those opportunities. Benn has been in front of Andrei Vasilevskiy a ton. Seguin may be a sneaky pick tonight if one is looking to go completely against the grain.
Value Picks
- Ondrej Palat ($8,200 DK/ $10,500 FD) - Palat has been skating with the top Lightning line all postseason long. Palat is cheaper than his other linemates but allows you to get exposure to the top line and the top powerplay line as well. He has scored double-digit DK points in eight of his last 11 games. If needing salary relief, Palat can be viable in tournaments for the captain role due to his recent form and salary savings that he provides. Furthermore, Palat has carried a nice floor and had 3+ shots in five of his last six games.
- Kevin Shattenkirk ($4,600 DK/ $9,500 FD) - Shattenkirk is the main defensive cog on the Tampa Bay power play not named Victor Hedman. That does add some value as the defenseman can get some points just by the product of the Lightning forwards. The key is how occupied those forwards have kept the Dallas penalty killers. This makes shots from the point even more dangerous and gives room for players like Shattenkirk to make plays.
- Jason Dickinson ($3,600 DK/ $6,500 FD) - Dickinson is minimum or near minimum price in all formats and has nine shots and five scoring chances in his previous four games. He is a risk worth taking as nothing more than a punt play to fill out rosters while saving a few dollars on some of the bigger choices. Dickinson was normally playing bottom six minutes but is averaging around 16 minutes a night in the Stanley Cup Final. He has played well and executed better than most Dallas forwards this series.
Stacks
- TB1- Palat, Hedman, Kucherov, Point
- DAL1- Benn, Seguin, Radulov
- TBPP1- Kucherov, Hedman, Palat, Point
- TB3 - Goodrow, Gourde, Coleman
Player Pool
C- Pavelski, Seguin, Gourde, Cirelli, Point
W- Kucherov, Benn, Radulov, Palat, Perry/Maroon,
D- Hedman, Sergachev, Klingberg, Heiskanen
G- Vasilevskiy, Khudobin, Oettinger?
