NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 1) - Targets and Avoids

September 10, 2023

The top NFL survivor pool picks for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season. Betting expert Seth I. Finkelstein's weekly survivor league pool targets and avoids.

Welcome back RotoBallers to our NFL Survivor Pool Picks for Week 1 of the 2023 NFL season! Football is back, and the options are endless -- there are so many different pools, fantasy leagues, weekly bets, and future bets that it's hard to decide what to do. But survivor pools are the oldest and simplest leagues out there. All you have to do is pick a team and have them win, but you can't choose them again.

All season long, I'll be bringing you weekly survivor pool columns on NFL teams to target and avoid each week. Survivor league strategy is a major part of winning your pools, and this article will help you through the 2023 NFL season. Last week, I laid out different tactics on how to win survivor pools. Now, we're ready to preview Week 1 and get you through one of the hardest weeks.

In Week 1, you have an idea of which team is good but it's all thoughts; there's no evidence to back up what anyone is thinking. The stars are not really playing much in preseason, so it's hard to gauge who's good and who isn't. There appears to be one obvious play in Week 1. But you may also want to avoid the Commanders, who also seem like an obvious play. Let's take a look at the survivor pool pick recommendations to target and avoid for Week 1.

NFL Teams Favored by 6+ in Week 1

• Ravens -9.5 vs. Texans
• Commanders -7 vs. Cardinals
• Chiefs -6.5 vs. Lions
• Vikings -6 vs. Buccaneers

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Target for Week 1

Ravens -9.5 vs. Texans

This is my top play of the week. If you want to get through Week 1 with no hiccups, take Baltimore. The Ravens have one of the top quarterbacks in Lamar Jackson, who finally has his contract. Baltimore is a good overall, well-coached team that will not beat themselves. Houston is starting rookie C.J. Stroud, who struggled in the preseason. Having to make your first start in Baltimore, one of the loudest stadiums, will be a lot to manage in Week 1.

The Ravens are surely a team you could save for later weeks but I just want to get through Week 1.

Ravens 31 - Texans 14

Falcons -3.5 vs. Panthers

Here's another situation of going against a rookie quarterback making his first start on the road in another loud stadium. Bryce Young did not look good in preseason but that could be argued it was mostly the offensive line. Young will improve but if he has to deal with another bad offensive line like he did last year at Alabama, his first season could be a rocky one.

Young will be facing a good defensive line with Calais Campbell and Grady Jarrett. Second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder will start for the Falcons and have a loaded backfield in first-round pick Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier. Plus wide receiver Drake London is poised to make improvements in his second year. Atlanta went 7-10 last year with Marcus Mariota starting most of the season. They should improve this year.

Falcons 24 - Panthers 16

Seahawks -4.5 vs. Rams

Los Angeles could be the worst team in football. Arizona most likely will be worse but the Rams are not far behind. Matthew Stafford is not himself. After starting the first nine games last year, Stafford suffered an elbow injury which kept him out the rest of the season.

The Rams tried trading him this offseason but no one wanted to take on his mammoth contract. He still has three years left on a four-year deal that guaranteed him $130 million. His wide receivers recently said he struggles to communicate with his younger teammates. Head coach Sean McVay is disputing that, of course.

The offensive line is not good. The Rams could barely do anything in the offseason due to trading away all their picks and tying up their car to win a Super Bowl. Wide receiver Cooper Kupp just injured his hamstring. He was returning from an injury last year. The only good player on the defense is Aaron Donald.

Seattle is set to take a leap forward this season, though. They are very live to win the division since the Rams and Cardinals figure to be awful and the 49ers could have quarterback problems. Geno Smith not only has DK Metcalf to throw to this year but stud rookie first-round pick Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The offensive line is much better and the defense will improve. They get their season going in the right direction with a big defeat of the Rams.

Seahawks 34 - Rams 17

Top Survivor Pool Picks to Avoid for Week 1

Commanders -7 vs. Cardinals

Everyone is going to be on Washington in Week 1. They are not projected to be a favorite in any other game this season. Arizona will be starting either Joshua Dobbs or Clayton Tune after they cut veteran Colt McCoy. Many are saying they will tank and go for USC star Caleb Williams. And it sure looks that way.

The Commanders will be starting Sam Howell, who the country got to see in the Monday Night preseason game where they ended the Ravens' 24-game preseason winning streak. He and the offense looked really good. They are a very logical pick but if they go down, so will 60 percent of pools. That's precisely why I'm avoiding them. Plus, this game looks too easy.

Commanders 21 - Cardinals 20

Vikings -6 vs. Buccaneers

Minnesota is another logical play but they will also be highly picked. I'm a fan of Kirk Cousins and they should roll Tampa but what if Baker Mayfield has one of those weird good games and all of a sudden the game is tied in the fourth quarter? Then do you really want Cousins?

Vikings 24 - Bucs 23

NFL Best Bets for Week 1

• Falcons -3.5 vs. Panthers -- buy the half-point here to get it to three.
• Seahawks -4.5 vs. Rams
• Steelers +2.5 vs. 49ers - Kenny Pickett and George Pickens looked electric in the preseason. I like Brock Purdy but how will he fare off his elbow injury? Their defense is great but can the offense do enough?

Running Totals

• 2022 season: 28-23-3
• 2021 season: 27-26-1
• 2020 season: 24-27
• 2019 season: 23-26-2

NFL Playoffs Picks

AFC                                NFC

1 - Bills (East)                 1 - Cowboys (East)
2 - Ravens (North)        2 - Seahawks (West)
3 - Chargers (West)      3 - Packers (North)
4 - Colts (South)            4 - Falcons (South)
5 - Chiefs                         5 - Eagles
6 - Bengals                      6 - 49ers
7 - Jets                             7 -  Vikings

Wild Card:

• Jets over Ravens  |  Seahawks over Vikings
• Bengals over Chargers | 49ers over Packers
• Chiefs over Colts | Eagles over Falcons

Divisional:

• Bills over Jets | 49ers over Cowboys
• Bengals over Chiefs | Eagles over Seahawks

Conference Championships:

• Bills over Bengals  | 49ers over Eagles

Super Bowl:

• Bills over 49ers

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