Nuggets from Week 14

• The Bears and Jordan Howard own the AFC North this year. They were underdogs in three games thus far, and won them all. Howard has had his three biggest games against the vaunted AFC North rush defenses; 140 yards and 2 touchdowns vs. the Steelers, 167 yards vs. the Ravens, and 147 yards, two touchdowns on Sunday against the Bengals.
• Although it wasn't so cold in Kansas City, 47 degrees at kickoff, Derek Carr had just another awful December game; 211 passing yards, 5.14 yards per attempt, one touchdown, and two picks. Most of the passing yards came in the 4th quarter when they trailed 26-0.
• Dez Bryant has not had a 100-yard receiving game since Week 10 of last season.
• I have to give credit when it’s due. Blake Bortles, great game. 9.9 Y/A, 268 yards and 2 touchdowns. He looked like he was comfortable and in complete control the entire game.
• Jimmy Freaking G. Like I predicted, he lit up the Texans defense. 334 yards on 20 completions and 10.1 Y/A.
• I mentioned last week the Chargers would need to improve in the red zone, but they didn't. Of five attempts, only two led to touchdowns. Not good enough.

Rant of the Week

There's not many more things I hate than conservative coaching. And when you're 2-10 and being conservative, that may top if off. Steve Spagnuolo, you did just that on Sunday. Let's start it off in the first quarter. The score is 3-3. The Giants have 4th-and-3 from the Dallas 37. Your season is over already and you have the chance to knock  out your arch rival from the playoffs. But you decide to punt. The best part, the punt resulted in a touchback. Congrats on a 17-yard net gain. If you didn't convert the first down, the Cowboys would have it on their own 37 instead of their own 20. Big deal. What are you afraid of Spagnuolo?!? You were the St. Louis Rams head coach for three years and your record was 10-39. Simply put, it was a disaster. The Giants will be cleaning house in three weeks so mine as well make a case for another job. Instead you coach not to lose and you end up losing 30-10.

Survivor League Strategy

Like last week, we are going to scrap the old format and pick each game against the spread. If you are still in a survivor pool, don't fret. The order of the games I pick are from my top plays to worst.

These lines are from sportsbook.ag on Wednesday.

Last week my top picks were 3-0, my secondary picks were 1-3 and the rest of the bunch were 0-7.

This week we have one Thursday game (obviously), two Saturday games!!!, eight early games (boooo), and three late games, but one of those is the 10-3 Patriots at the 11-2 Steelers which lead me to my...

Top Picks for Week 15

These are my best bets in order of confidence:

Patriots -3 @ STEELERS

This is the game of the year. Whoever wins will get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, something that is vital for both teams. Mike Tomlin has had this game circled for the past three weeks, at least. What does it say that Steelers fan have been anxiously waiting for this game for weeks while to New England fans, it's just another game. I just love love love the Pats come Sunday. The Pats shockingly lost as a double-digit favorite last night. That doesn't bode well for the Steelers. From a Patriots blog,  "There have only been nine stretches since 2001 that can be referred to as "losing streaks" -- with 8 of those being situations where the team lost two games in a row."

New England owns Pittsburgh. Since 2004, including the playoffs, the Pats with Tom Brady are 8-2 against the Steelers including winners of the last four. Two of those losses have come on the road. Here are Tom Brady's stats in those games.

Date           Result  Cmp  Att  Cmp%  Yds   TD  Int  Rate   Sk  Yds   Y/A
2017-01-22    W 36-17   32   42 76.19  384    3    0 127.5    2   10  9.14
2016-10-23    W 27-16   19   26 73.08  222    2    0 124.2    0    0  8.54
2015-09-10    W 28-21   25   32 78.13  288    4    0 143.7    2    7  9.00
2013-11-03    W 55-31   23   33 69.70  432    4    0 151.8    3   19 13.09
2011-10-30    L 17-25   24   35 68.57  198    2    0 101.8    3   28  5.66
2010-11-14    W 39-26   30   43 69.77  350    3    0 117.4    0    0  8.14
2007-12-09    W 34-13   32   46 69.57  399    4    0 125.2    0    0  8.67
2005-09-25    W 23-20   31   41 75.61  372    0    1  92.7    3   26  9.07
2005-01-23    W 41-27   14   21 66.67  207    2    0 130.5    2   11  9.86
2004-10-31    L 20-34   25   43 58.14  271    2    2  72.9    4   28  6.30

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

Here's another daily fantasy tidbit for you. These are Rob Gronkowski's stats against the Steelers in both the regular season and playoffs.

Date           Result  Tgt  Rec  Yds   Y/R   TD
2016-10-23    W 27-16    4    4   93 23.25    1
2015-09-10    W 28-21    8    5   94 18.80    3
2013-11-03    W 55-31   10    9  143 15.89    1
2011-10-30    L 17-25    9    7   94 13.43    0
2010-11-14    W 39-26    5    5   72 14.40    3

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table

Ever since Mike Tomlin declared on national television three weeks he was looking ahead to Sunday's game, the Steelers have had to come back late to win each game, kick two field goals as time expired and another one with less than a minute to beat the Packers, Bengals, and Ravens.

After seeing Baltimore gash the Steelers with their running game, I think the Patriots will do the same thing. They've done it plenty of times in the past in marquee matchups. Remember when Jonas Gray ran for 200 yards and three touchdowns that Sunday night in Indianapolis? New England went with eight or nine linemen and wore out the Colts. I think they go right after Pittsburgh's run defense after Ryan Shazier went out, control the the clock, and win handily. Lock it down as one of my plays of the year.

Prediction: Patriots 34 - Steelers 20

Eagles -7.5 @ GIANTS

This line dropped by about five points after Wentz was ruled out. A lot of the public will be on the Giants because of the Wentz injury, which is precisely why I like Philly. People will be doubting them and Nick Foles all week. The Giants are second worst in opponent passing yards per game, and fourth worst over their last three. They are also allowing 8.4 opponent Y/A over their last three, that's worst in the league, and bottom five in that stat for the season. But Foles won't event need to do much. The Eagles average 143 rushing yards per game, second best, and are third in that stat over their last three. The Giants are 31st in opponent rushing yards per game, 130. The Giants allow 24.7 points per game so assuming the Eagles put up 25 in this game, the Giants will need to get to 17 to cover. Against the Eagles number one rush defense over the season that will be tough. Eli Manning will struggle immensely against a team that has averaged 180 opponent passing yards per game over their last three. The Giants have gotten to 17 once in their past four games, and haven't scored more than 17 in five weeks. Eagles will roll.

Prediction: Eagles 26 - Giants 13

PANTHERS -3 vs. Packers 

The big story for this game is Aaron Rodgers's return. Everyone is ready to pencil the Packers into the playoffs and anoint them back. As much as Rodgers is a deodorant quarterback, and has "looked ridiculous" in practice,  he can't play defense. The Packers struggle immensely on that side of the ball. In their last there games, they've allowed over 100 rushing yards and at least 345 passing yards. Besides for the Steelers, the other two teams were the Bucs and Browns. Both of those teams are dreadful. It took an overtime win to beat the Bucs and a 14-point 4th quarter comeback to defeat the winless Browns.

The Panthers running game is starting to click after a seventh straight game with at least 100 rushing yards. Jonathan Stewart looked like a new player against the top-notched Vikings defense. Cam Newton has looked iffy, but his running ability will keep the Packers guessing all game. Carolina will win in a shootout.

Prediction: Panthers 37 - Packers 31

Secondary Picks for Week 15

These are plays I like, a level below my best bets in order of confidence:

VIKINGS -10.5 vs. Bengals

The Bengals are toast. Their season is over. They are banged up and just got handled by a Bears team that had beaten three teams all year. It looked liked they quit in the second half. Andy Dalton will have one of his worst games against a team that is second in opponent passing yards per attempt, fifth in opponent passing yards per game, and eighth in defensive DVOA. As for the Cincy running game, the Vikes are sixth in opponent rush yards per attempt, and second in opponent rushing yards per game.

The Bengals defense gave up 232 rushing yards last week. I expect the Vikes to pound the run early, setting up the play action in route to a blow out.

Prediction: Vikings 28 - Bengals 10

49ERS -2 vs. Titans

Vegas is telling you something with this line. On a neutral field, an 8-5 Titans team would ONLY be a point better than a 3-10 team. That stat alone is all you need to know, but I will give you more.

We all know just how bad the Titans are. Their offense is anemic. Marcus Mariota has not broken 200 passing yards in three straight weeks. He's thrown 10 touchdowns and 14 interceptions this season. For comparison, Deshaun Watson threw 19 touchdown passes and eight interceptions in SEVEN games. The Titans may be a good defense statistically, but per DVOA, they rank 21st. I will keep throwing this stat out: besides for two loooong Derrick Henry touchdowns runs with less than a minute to go, the Titans have beat one team by more than one possession. Lastly, the Titans scoring margin is 11 points worse on the road than at home. Jimmy G will stay perfect in his career as a starter and make it 5-0.

Prediction: 49ers 23 - Titans 16

Cowboys -3 @ RAIDERS

This is a loser leaves town matchup on Sunday night football. The one and only thing that will decide this game is the line of scrimmage. Dallas has one of the best offensive lines averaging 137 rushing yards per game, third in the league. The Raiders are middle of the pack against the run. Behind a dominant offensive line performance, the Cowboys win to set up a massive game against the Seahawks in Week 16 with the return of Ezekiel Elliot.

Prediction: Cowboys 27 - Raiders 20

Cardinals +4 @ REDSKINS

The Redskins have officially quit after two straight non-competitive blowouts. Redskins fans don't even want to watch them; "The Redskins "were the third-most watched NFL game in their home market last weekend." It's just three more games of misery before another overhaul. They just haven't looked the same since they lost their most dynamic player, Chris Thompson, a month ago.

Like I said last week, the Cardinals are a frisky team. It scares me that the Cardinals scoring margin is nine points worse on the road than at home. But even with that stat, you're getting a free point. How is Washington not a three-point favorite against a team that's just as good as they are.

Prediction: Cardinals 24 - Redskins 20

Rams +2.5 @ SEAHAWKS

What an enormous game. If the Rams win they go up two games in the division with two to play, but if Seattle wins, they take sole possession of the division lead. The Rams lost their fourth game Sunday. After each of their three previous losses, they've rebounded strong with a big win the next week in a tough spot; Thursday night overtime win in San Fran, 10-point road win at Jacksonville, and ending the Saints eight-game win streak. On the road in Seattle looks very similar to their previous three.

Just when I keep thinking the Seahawks have flipped their switch, they make Blake Bortles look like a stud. I am really confused as to what is wrong with them. They are so inconsistent alternating wins and losses their last six games. Robert Woods is expected to play which makes a high-octane offense even more dangerous. Seattle is one of most injured and banged up teams this year and it's unfortunate. Russell Wilson will need to play out of his mind for them to win. I don't think they can keep pace with the second-highest scoring offense.

Prediction: Rams 34 - Seahawks 28

BILLS -3.5 vs. Dolphins 

The Dolphins are off their biggest and most impressive win of the season. That was their Super Bowl. Their season isn't over, but it will be on Sunday against a team looking to make the playoffs for the first time this millennium.  Miami is not a cold weather team. I can't forget the Dolphins ineptitude last year when they practiced in the warm weather before their playoff game in Pittsburgh. I live in upstate New York and it has been brutally cold here this past week. Single digits cold. You take your glove off and that hand turns red in moments. My point is, Bills players are used to the cold. They've acclimated to it throughout the fall. Miami will be in for a shock. Literally. Get ready to shave that beard, Jay Cutler.

Prediction: Bills 24 - Dolphins 13

The Rest of the Bunch

These are games that I am not certain about. In order of importance:

CHIEFS +1 vs. Chargers

This game is on Saturday. Both teams are 7-6. If the Chiefs win, they will have a two-game lead with two games to go because they would own the head-to-head tiebreaker over San Diego. I like the fact that I'm getting points with the home team in a night game. This will be very close and come down to the wire.

Prediction: Chiefs 24 - Chargers 23

Bears +5.5 @ LIONS 

This game is also on Saturday. The Lions need a win to stay alive in the playoff hunt. The Bears just had their best game of the season and will have a major letdown. But 5.5 points is one too many. I like the Lions by three.

Prediction: Lions 24 - Bears 21

SAINTS -15.5 vs. Jets

I originally liked the Jets because of all the points I was getting, but then I realized the Saints will score 40 and how in the world will the Bryce Petty led Jets score 24?

Prediction: Saints 41 - Jets 13

Falcons -6 @ BUCS

This game is on Monday night. The Bucs are so bad and the Falcons have 11 days to prepare for this one.

Prediction: Falcons 30 - Bucs 20

Texans +11 @ JAGUARS

11.5 points is just too much for Blake Bortles. The Jags will win, but not by that much. T.J. Yates was so much better than Tom Savage Sunday and looked to have a good rapport with DeAndre Hopkins. Him alone will get the Texans to cover.

Prediction: Jaguars 20 - Texans 10

BROWNS +7 vs. Ravens

Let's go with the Browns in an outright upset one last time. I promise this is it. The Ravens are a different team at home and on the road. Their scoring margin is nine points worse on the road than at home. They are banged up after Sunday night's brutal game against the Steelers. They will overlook the Browns making it closer than expected.

Prediction: Browns 20 - Ravens 19

COLTS +3 vs. Broncos

The only ramifications of this game are draft order and fantasy football playoffs. And oh, it's on Thursday night. How wonderful. I like the home dog. I don't think the Broncos deserve to be a favorite on the road.

Prediction: Colts 23 - Broncos 20

Any questions? Feel free to ask me on Twitter @Seth_Fink.

Best of luck!

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