RADIO
Half the football season is in the books. For the first time ever we have four 7-0 football teams. Nine teams are on bye this week; Cardinals, Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Seahawks, and Texans.
For those of you unfamiliar with survivor pools it’s very simple; pick a team to win each week, if they win you move on to the next week. BUT you cannot use that team ever again. There is NO point spread involved.
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Survivor League Strategy
I will be following the same strategy I implore every year when entering a survivor contest.
- Try to save the top teams for the end of the season. You do not want to be alive in Week 10 choosing between the Jaguars and Browns. Picking teams that you would not use later on in the season should be looked at early on. For example, last season the Jets played the Raiders in Week 1. I chose the Jets due to the fact that I knew this would be my best opportunity to use up the Jets and save other top teams like the Patriots and Seahawks later on.
- When in doubt pick the home team. Rarely will I be picking a team on the road in survivor. It is hard to win on the road, and teams tend to play better with their home crowd behind them. The one time I picked a road team last season, the 49ers lost at the Raiders and I was eliminated.
- Try to avoid divisional rivalry games also. Anything can happen with a rivalry game. Last season Washington was a 9.5-point underdog to the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday night football. Washington ended up winning, knocking many people out of their survivor pool.
- Never pick an underdog, unless you have no choice.
Before making any picks, look at each point spread. Vegas has the best minds, smarter than any of us, use them to get a glimpse at how each team is projected to fare that week.
The biggest favorites in Week 1, per Sportsbook.ag (home team in CAPS); PATRIOTS 14 vs. D.C., BENGALS -10.5 vs. Browns, Falcons -6.5 vs. 49ERS
Top Survivor Picks for Week 1
The Patriots and Bengals will not lose this week. The other games this week are all very hard to forecast. But here is one team to consider.
VIKINGS -2.5 vs. Rams
The Vikings are 5-2 after consecutive NFC North road wins, and the Rams are 4-3 after back-to-back home wins against the Browns and 49ers. This game could go a long way in playoff tiebreakers. The Rams offense is fifth worst in the league with scoring, 19.3 points. Nick Foles is averaging 180 passing yards per game, but luckily the Rams have Todd Gurley, who is averaging 6.1 yards per carry. The Rams boast a top notch defense, only giving up 19 points per game.
The quarterbacks in this game will play cautiously and not be allowed to do too much, therefore the running game will be a huge factor. The Vikings are averaging 131 yards per game, fifth best in the league, while the Rams give up 98 yards per game rushing. I think Adrian Peterson is too good for the Rams too slow him down. Either way, this game will be low scoring and the Vikings will prevail by a field goal due to their home field advantage.
Top Survivor Picks to Avoid for Week 1
Broncos -4 vs COLTS
The Broncos looked like the best team in football Sunday night, holding Aaron Rodgers to 77 yards passing. The Broncos will come to Indy with their confidence at a season high to take on the struggling Colts off a heartbreaking Monday night loss. Even though the Colts are 3-5, they are tied for first place in the division with the Texans (Yeah, those Houston Texans, the worst team in football). This line and game look too easy, so why do I like the Colts?
The Colts are in desperation mode. If they lose this week, they will be 3-6 heading into their bye. Chuck Pagano is already on the hot seat, and if there were any time to fire a coach, it's during a bye week on a four game skid. This is a kitchen sink game for the Colts and they will throw everything they have at the Broncos. This game could turn around the Colts season or sink it. I bet they turn it around.
Falcons -6.5 vs. 49ERS
This game looks way too easy for Atlanta. They come off an overtime loss to the Bucs, and now travel to San Francisco to play one of the worst teams in football and Blaine Gabbert. There is something wrong with this line. How could Atlanta be only a touchdown favorite over a 49er team that is starting Blaine Gabbert? That is why I like the niners.
How much worse could the the 49ers play after scoring nine total points the past two games? I can't see them playing bad for a third straight time, especially with their home crowd behind them. The 49ers will keep this one close, with the potential for an outright upset.
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