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Ryan Kirksey ranks all 14 NFL playoff teams from the 2023 regular season based on how well they have played through their first 17 games.
As we head into the NFL postseason, some teams are riding high and others are barely able to keep a team healthy enough for the playoffs. 14 teams qualified for the playoffs, but how do we rank them before the first game kicks off on Saturday?
Teams like the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Rams were unexpected additions based on preseason expectations, but other favorites like the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles come in short of expectations. It's just further proof that the landscape of the NFL can change on a dime after any given Sunday.
So what do the NFL power rankings look like after the completion of the regular season? Here is our ranking of all 14 NFL playoff teams.
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The Favorites
1. Baltimore Ravens (13-4)
Lamar Jackson is the MVP (probably). They have the number one scoring defense in the NFL. They have the second-best red zone defense in the NFL. They are a top-eight third-down defense as well. They control the clock with a 51% rush rate and have home-field advantage until the Super Bowl.
Everything seems to favor the Ravens right now in the AFC and they get to rest a week while the Bills, Chiefs, Browns, and Dolphins all face tough battles to get to the second round. As long as they can keep Odell Beckham Jr. from creating another team-on-a-boat disaster again, the Ravens will have the smoothest path to the championship of any team left in the postseason.
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-5)
Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, and the rest of the NFL's best offense can sit back and enjoy this week off while the rest of the infirmed and weary NFC beat themselves up over the Wild Card weekend.
3. Dallas Cowboys (12-5)
If you think the honoring of Jimmy Johnson in the Cowboys' last home game was a coincidence or just a result of fortunate timing, think again my friend.
Dallas has the most complete package of offense, defense, and special teams in the Mike McCarthy era, and I cannot wait for the potential rematch against San Francisco. CeeDee Lamb is in the middle of the hottest stretch an NFL receiver has ever had, and Dak Prescott was the only quarterback in the league to throw for more than 35 touchdowns.
Please, football gods, give us the rematch.
4. Buffalo Bills (11-6)
Winners of six of their last seven games, Buffalo has evolved from a 6-5 afterthought to an 11-6 juggernaut that no one wants to face in the postseason. Poor Pittsburgh. Josh Allen is going all YOLO and getting away with it because the defense and special teams have been so good over the last six weeks.
On the defense, Buffalo has clamped down on teams when it matters most. Over the last three weeks, they have allowed only 2.0 red zone scoring attempts per game, which is tied for the best in football.
From an eighth seed just five days ago to now the biggest favorite of the postseason's opening weekend, this Buffalo team (-10) is peaking at the right time.
Scary Wild Card Teams
5. Cleveland Browns (11-6)
What's the only knock on this Cleveland Browns team that is dominating on both sides of the ball over the second half of the season? It would have to be that the Browns haven't played a top-10 quarterback since Week 10 against Lamar Jackson. Here is who they have faced since then:
Kenny Pickett
Russell Wilson
Matthew Stafford
Trevor Lawrence
Justin Fields
Davis Mills
Trevor Siemian
Jake Browning
Who am I kidding, Joe Flacco is better than all those fools right now and the Cleveland defense is basically unstoppable. I am excited to watch C.J. Stroud take on this team, but with the Texans dealing with injuries and the Browns top-five in sack percentage this year, this looks like it could be a repeat of Week 16.
6. Los Angeles Rams (10-7)
Entering the season, the Los Angeles Rams were about +8000 to make the Super Bowl by most sportsbooks, with only a handful of teams with longer odds. Apparently, these folks did not know about Puka Power and about Kyren Williams, but the Rams have the offense no one wants to face right now.
The Rams are understandable three-point dogs on the road this week against Detroit, but which group would you rather go to battle with right now: Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, and Puka Nacua or Jared Goff, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Kalif Raymond? Please give me the Lions side in that matchup.
Limping Into the Postseason
7. Kansas City Chiefs (11-6)
With Buffalo winning and gaining the two seed in the AFC, forcing the cold-weather-adverse Dolphins to Kansas City (more on that below), the NFL script is working how it should with a Bills-Chiefs rematch set for the Divisional Round.
First, Kansas City needs to win their home matchup against Miami (Kansas City is a 4-point favorite). I can almost guarantee you that there will be none of this Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, or Marquez Valdes-Scantling nonsense on Saturday. Patrick Mahomes has learned he trusts Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, and Isiah Pacheco. That will be the offense in the playoffs.
The defense, however, could be the story this postseason if the offensive struggles continue. The Chiefs are now second in scoring defense this season and are top-10 in red zone touchdown percentage allowed.
8. Detroit Lions (11-6)
Dan Campbell's smash-through-a-wall coaching style has cost them twice in two weeks as the Lions prepare for the postseason. After the controversial call in the Dallas game in Week 17, Campbell goes for two again from the seven-yard line and misses it, essentially knocking them out of the second seed in the NFC.
Then in Week 18, knowing he has a microscopic chance of getting the two-seed back, he sends his starters out for literally the whole game, and they lose stud rookie tight end Sam LaPorta in the process.
Fans should be happy that we get this narrative-filled Matthew Stafford return to Detroit, but there is a world where Detroit is healthier and a larger favorite (-3 currently) if their coach was a bit more conservative.
9. Miami Dolphins (11-6)
As if the Dolphins weren't already incentivized enough to win the AFC East last week, now they must travel to Kansas City as a Wild Card team for a game that is supposed to be in single-digit temperatures. Let's just say the Dolphins have not fared well in these types of games over the years.
But the cold may not be the biggest thing they have to worry about, because lately the 'Fins have been snake-bitten by injury. Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel on the defense both left the Bills game with an injury and that's after Bradley Chubb and others have been lost for the year. Raheem Mostert missed last week. Tyreek Hill was clearly hobbling. And Jaylen Waddle has been on-again, off-again for two months.
Miami's depth is being tested and now they go into Patrick Mahomes' house.
10. Philadelphia Eagles (11-6)
Never forget, the reason the Eagles aren't entering the playoffs on a six-game losing streak is that the NFL refs didn't call what should have been a hold AND a defensive pass interference at the end of the game against the New York Giants in Week 16. Over the last three games (two against the Giants and one against Arizona), Philadelphia has been out-scored 87-74 and Jalen Hurts has thrown for more than 200 yards once in the last six weeks.
Coach Nick Sirianni may be trying to give a "we're at 0-0 now" speech every day, but he can't talk loud enough to cover up the fact that this team's defense stinks and their offense is on life support. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown are hurting. DeVonta Smith is still recovering from a knee injury. And their recent stretch means they have to go on the road when it looked like they had the top seed locked up six weeks ago.
They may be 3-point favorites against Tampa Bay this week, but that's the shakiest three-point advantage I've ever seen.
First-Year Quarterbacks
11. Houston Texans (10-7)
If you think the Texans are just in "happy to be here" mode, you might want to think again. Sure, the Texans were projected to finish last in the AFC South and have a year of bumps and bruises while they grew. But don't tell that to DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud. They think their time is now AND in the future.
Yes, Cleveland mopped the floor with Houston in the Texans' home stadium just three weeks ago, but Stroud did not play in that game and Nico Collins caught just four balls for 18 yards with Davis Mills. Now with Stroud/Collins one of the hottest quarterback-receiver duos in the league and with a taste of postseason atmosphere against Indianapolis last week, they are out for revenge in Round 1.
Missing Tank Dell and the lack of a truly great run game will hurt against this ferocious Cleveland defense (and is the reason they are 2.5-point home dogs), but Stroud seems to play his best in the biggest games.
12. Green Bay Packers (9-8)
After C.J. Stroud dismantled the Colts, he was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week. Care to guess who won for the NFC? That's right, Jordan Love won for the second week in a row after completing 84% of his passes for 316 yards and two scores in a lockdown of the Chicago Bears.
That performance clinched Green Bay's playoff spot and set up a matchup with the Dallas Cowboys that seems like it was custom-designed in a lab for the NFL postseason. Two of the league's most storied franchises face off on the biggest stage. Think that moment and pressure will scare Jordan love? Likely not.
Jordan Love has been his best against pressure this season. Love led Green Bay to five wins in their last six games to reach the postseason and he has dominated when pressured on the field as well. According to Pro Football Focus, Love completes over 72% of his passes and has a 19:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio when given less than three seconds to throw. Against Dallas' pass rush, that's the kind of elite weapon you want.
The Dark Horses
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-8)
Even though they did win in Week 18, scoring just nine points against a horrific Carolina Panthers team in a must-win situation isn't exactly the positive momentum heading into the playoffs that the Bucs might want it to be. Along with Houston, Tampa Bay (+3) checks in as one of the only home underdogs for the weekend, and that's saying something considering the Eagles have lost five of their last six contests.
The recipe for the Buccaneers winning on Monday night is for Baker Mayfield to throw, throw, and throw some more. The Eagles have allowed the most receptions and second-most receiving yards and touchdowns to wide receivers this year. They have been torched by the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals in recent weeks, so they are vulnerable through the air.
Give Mike Evans 16 targets and let your defense take a shot against an ailing Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown.
14. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
The Pittsburgh Steelers took care of business last Saturday, beating the junior varsity squad of the Baltimore Ravens in the middle of a monsoon, but it came with a price. Star linebacker T.J. Watt (likely the best overall player on the Steelers) sprained his MCL and will miss the upcoming contest against Buffalo.
Still, the Steelers have defied expectations all season and won 10 games despite a quarterback carousel of Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph. Can they break the mold and do it one more time? Facing one of the hottest teams in the NFL on the road without their defensive anchor tells the story of why the Steelers are 10-point underdogs on Sunday afternoon.
The Steelers needed to score 27 points per game to win their last three regular season games and make the playoffs, but I don't see that happening in this contest.
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