RADIO
Jorden Hill's NFL DFS prop picks for No House Advantage Pick 'Em contests and the Divisional Round Saturday slate. Use his NFL prop picks to win money.
We couldn't have been treated to a more thrilling Wild Card weekend, so here's to hoping that the Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is just as exhilarating! There are four intriguing matchups over the next two days and there's still plenty of time to get in on the action by joining some player prop contests offered by our friends at No House Advantage!
There are a total of six Pick 'Em contests available this weekend, with half focused on Saturday's two-game slate and the other half centered around Sunday's two-game offering. These contests range from just $5-$15 per entry and will place you against other players for your chance to win cash from prize pools worth as much as $30,000!
Additionally, No House Advantage is offering a VS. THE HOUSE contest to win up to 21x your money if your prop picks are correct. We'll get into some of my favorite props for Saturday's Pick 'Em contests, but we'll first review how to play for those that are new to No House Advantage.
Featured Promo: Get a 100% instant deposit match up to $50 with promo code BALLER with your first deposit. All new No House Advantage users get a free year of RotoBaller Premium access for the Big 3 Sports - NFL, NBA, MLB ($199 value)!
How to Play on No House Advantage
The first step is to sign up for an account with code BALLER and claim your free deposit match (and RotoBaller Premium Pass). Then choose your DFS player props contest. Whether or not you want to play against a larger or smaller field is entirely up to you, as is the entry fee you wish to pay. Then, you select 10 player props you like, deciding to bet the over or the under, and ranking them in order of confidence.
For example, if you feel certain that Travis Kelce will dominate Jacksonville's defense, you would select Kelce's over 82.5 receiving yards prop as your 10-point selection. Note that it is still possible to win some cash with an incorrect choice or two, but the number of points your misses cost you will be critical.
Once all of Saturday's games are wrapped up, total points will be calculated for all entries in the contest and winnings will be distributed to the top performers. Contests like this make No House Advantage an extremely unique and fun DFS site, and we’re here to give you some ideas for your Saturday slate picks.
Higher Confidence Picks - Divisional Round (Saturday Slate)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (vs JAX) under 4.5 receptions
The Chiefs-versus-Jaguars game has the highest projected point total of the week as Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence are set to face off for the second time this season. It always sounds like a good idea to bet on Mahomes' weapons, especially in this type of game environment, but I'm willing to take my chances betting against Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
MVS had one of his better performances of the year against Jacksonville back in Week 10 when he posted three receptions for 60 yards and a touchdown. Notice that he still would have been two catches short of this 4.5 line. In fact, Valdes-Scantling eclipsed five receptions just once all season and hasn't totaled more than three in a contest since Week 12.
JuJu Smith-Schuster was the only receiver on the Chiefs to finish the regular season with more targets than Valdes-Scantling, but the former showcased consistent production in healthy stretches throughout the year. Valdes-Scantling, on the other hand, failed to do much with his career-high 81 targets and came away with two or fewer catches on eight different occasions.
This line on No House Advantage is simply too high to ignore as Valdes-Scantling's receptions prop is sitting at 2.5 on other popular sportsbooks.
DeVonta Smith (vs NYG) over 55.5 receiving yards
DeVonta Smith may be considered the WR2 on the Philadelphia Eagles, but the 24-year-old has produced as a legitimate top option as of late. Smith has surpassed 56 yards receiving in every contest since week 13, topping 100 yards in four of them. He also averaged 9.5 targets per game in this span, so his volume has been extremely consistent.
The former Heisman Trophy winner faced the Giants twice during this dominant stretch and eclipsed 60 yards both times. In general, New York represents an appealing matchup for opposing wideouts as the team allowed the 15th-most yards to the position this season.
The Eagles will enter Saturday as 7.5-point favorites at home, but we saw the type of fight the Giants are capable of putting up in the Wild Card round. I anticipate New York making this a competitive bout and can't imagine a scenario where Philadelphia is able to abandon the pass entirely to preserve a lead.
Smith's receiving yardage line is coming in at around 65.5 on other sportsbooks, so I like the 10-yard edge we're getting here.
Trevor Lawrence (vs KC) over 1.5 passing touchdowns
One week ago, Trevor Lawrence's playoff career got off to a disastrous start as the second-year signal-caller threw four interceptions in the first half against the Los Angeles Chargers. Just when we all counted him out, though, Lawrence shined brighter than ever.
The Jaguars battled back to win in extraordinary fashion on the back of Lawrence's 288 passing yards and four touchdowns. Jacksonville will hope to avoid a 27-point deficit this week, but the team will surely have to rely on Lawrence once again in a showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs.
You don't need me to tell you how great the Chiefs' offense is, but I'll highlight the fact that Kansas City led the league in scoring this season with 29.2 points per game. Assuming Mahomes and company will be able to score at will, the Jaguars will need to throw to keep up.
When these two teams clashed in Week 10, Lawrence finished with 259 yards and two passing touchdowns in a 27-17 loss. Throughout the regular season, Kansas City was vulnerable to the pass, surrendering the most passing touchdowns in the NFL and allowing opponents to score through the air two or more times in 12 of their 17 games.
The Chiefs are nine-point favorites at home with a projected point total of about 53, the highest of any Divisional Round matchup. This gives the Jags a healthy implied total of 22 points, and I think we can expect Lawrence to be responsible for most of them.
Lower Confidence Picks - Divisional Round (Saturday Slate)
Richie James (vs PHI) over 3.5 receptions
I listed this exact prop as a high-confidence selection last week, and Richie James came through with four receptions. I'm only slightly less confident this week because of the matchup against the Eagles, but I still think James will succeed yet again.
Through the regular season, the Eagles allowed the seventh-fewest receptions to wide receivers. James did play against Philadelphia in Week 14, though, and posted seven receptions for 61 yards on nine targets. He led the team in all three stat categories.
In the 11 contests this season in which James played on at least 40 percent of the team's offensive snaps, he reached four receptions or more nine times. He's now up to five consecutive games of hitting this mark.
As I mentioned when discussing DeVonta Smith above, I think this could be a closely-fought contest. Look for New York to pass in an effort to keep up with the Eagles, and for James to be one of Daniel Jones' primary weapons.
A.J. Brown (vs NYG) under 7.5 receptions
On the other side of the ball, I'm betting against a top receiving option. A.J. Brown is undoubtedly a force to be reckoned with, but this line is just too high.
I'll admit, Brown has the talent to make me look silly. He already has once this season. Ahead of Week 15, I outlined why I was choosing Brown to finish under 6.5 receptions, and he went on to hang nine receptions for 181 yards on the Chicago Bears. It happens.
Obviously, his line has gone up since then, even though he's failed to reach eight receptions in a contest since. In fact, Week 15 marked one of just three occasions this season in which Brown went over this line. Furthermore, the 25-year-old finished with just four receptions in each of his matchups with the Giants this year.
New York's defense is one that both Brown and the aforementioned Smith can exploit, but Smith has started to establish himself as more of a possession receiver while Brown continues to operate as one of the league's premier deep threats. Rather than from volume, Brown's success in this game should come from efficiency, which is the type of success he has found throughout his entire career.
On other sportsbooks, Brown's receptions prop is listed at 5.5 with plus-odds. In other words, it's a bit lofty to expect him to haul in six passes on Saturday, let alone eight.
Travis Kelce (vs JAX) over 82.5 receiving yards
This is a high line, so let me start by addressing the reasons you may be scared to take the over.
For one, Travis Kelce has gone under 83 receiving yards in five of his last seven games. My rebuttal to this is that Kelce is an elite playoff performer. The 33-year-old has averaged over 86 yards per game throughout his postseason career and has surpassed 83 yards in each of his last six playoff contests.
You may also be concerned because of the weather forecast in Kansas City on Saturday. There is a decent chance we see snow in Arrowhead Stadium, but fortunately, the wind isn't expected to be much of a factor. Besides, Patrick Mahomes is a snow game guy.
.@PatrickMahomes is a big snow game guy ❄️
(via @Chiefs)pic.twitter.com/N9cHVqAbXR
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) October 24, 2020
In the very game he said this, Mahomes threw for 340 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Kelce wasn't so bad either, posting a modest 11 receptions for 142 yards.
The matchup against Jacksonville is a dream for Kelce. The Jaguars allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends in the regular season and were torched by Gerald Everett for six receptions, 109 yards, and a touchdown just last week. In a Week 10 bout with Jacksonville, Kelce fell just short of this line with 81 yards.
We know that the Chiefs are going to throw the football in any condition. Even if the snow limits some downfield visibility, we also know that Mahomes will depend on his favorite target underneath.
Divisional Round Picks - Sample Pick 'Em Entry
Below is a sample Pick 'Em entry for the Divisional Round Saturday slate on No House Advantage. Hopefully, this will give you some helpful insight.
You can enter NFL Pick 'Em contests now on No House Advantage as well. Be sure to use code BALLER when signing up for your free $50 deposit match, and a free RotoBaller Premium Pass!
Play the NFL Picks Em Now on No House Advantage
Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App
Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!
