NFL Free Agent Fallers for Fantasy Football - Old Faces, New Places

Andersen Pickard identifies NFL free agents on new teams in 2023 that could be fantasy football fallers and overvalued draft targets based on ADP and situations they moved into.

Free agency can be one of the most exciting times in the NFL. Whether your favorite team is spending big money to be competitive or accumulating draft picks in preparation for a rebuild, every roster move deserves attention and is one puzzle piece in a greater organizational strategy.

With that said, NFL general managers and fantasy football managers don't always see eye to eye. An underrated signing that adds depth to an NFL squad could simultaneously create plenty of confusion and headaches in fantasy football leagues.

Let's explore five players who signed with new teams during free agency and are subsequently slipping down draft boards ahead of the 2023 fantasy football season. Keep in mind that these players are still draftable and could be fine depth options, but fantasy managers should certainly temper their expectations.

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RB Devin Singletary, Houston Texans

The move from Buffalo to Houston isn't ideal for Singletary, who goes from one of the league's most stable offenses to one that has struggled to move the ball over the last couple of seasons. For starters, Singletary will likely play second-fiddle to Dameon Pierce, who showed bursts of dominance while dodging injuries as a rookie last season. Given that NFL teams have started to rely more on their backup running backs, Singletary may still get a decent amount of snaps, but there's no denying that this is Pierce's backfield.

Additionally, a negative game script could force the Texans to move away from running the ball. Houston rushed the ball just 23.4 times per game last season, which was the fourth-lowest mark in football. That is a direct result of playing from behind and abandoning the run. While C.J. Stroud may be an upgrade over Davis Mills, the Texans' offense is still uninspiring, and it would be no surprise to see them remain under 25 rushes per game.

RB Jamaal Williams, New Orleans Saints

Williams had a career season with the Lions in 2022, rushing for 1,066 yards and 17 touchdowns. His success was a product of Dan Campbell's plan to distribute the ball to his two running backs. D'Andre Swift, when healthy, was relied upon for burst, yardage, and his receiving upside, which meant a whole lot of short-yardage and goal-line opportunities for Williams. He actually averaged just 4.1 yards per carry, which ranked 38th in the NFL, and was well behind Swift (5.5).

The reality is that Williams' fantasy value benefitted drastically from volume (278 opportunities) and touchdowns (17). He's a prime candidate for regression in 2023, especially now that he's playing on a Saints team that has historically operated with a clear workhorse back. Alvin Kamara has shown time and time again that he can handle 250-plus touches and plenty of goal-line work. As a result, Williams might be relegated to a true backup role rather than the 1A/1B scenario from which he benefitted in Detroit.

WR Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders' offense faced plenty of turnover this offseason. Derek Carr and Darren Waller are out; Jimmy Garoppolo, Michael Mayer, and Meyers are in. Even with Waller gone, we don't know if there is going to be a whole lot of volume for Las Vegas pass-catchers. The Raiders attempted just 20 passes per game to players not named Davante Adams or Josh Jacobs last season, and that was with Carr at quarterback.

Las Vegas might go even more run-heavy with Jimmy Garoppolo under center considering how he was used during his time in San Francisco. Meyers himself wasn't very productive or efficient as the top wide receiver in New England last season (62nd in ADOT, 52nd in route wins, 51st in true catch rate, and 34th in EPA per game). A lack of playmaking skills suggests he might have even more trouble producing now that his target share will decline drastically.

TE Dalton Schultz, Houston Texans

Much like Singletary, Schultz finds himself in an unfortunate situation. He's a good player who has proven himself as a reliable fantasy option in the past, yet his outlook is shaky at best after shuttling from Dallas (strong offense) to Houston (suspect offense) during the offseason. Despite missing two games last season, Schultz finished with 89 targets. However, there are only 87 vacated tight end targets in Houston.

Sure, maybe this signing indicates that the Texans want to utilize their tight ends more next season, but that still doesn't compare to the locked-and-loaded, week-by-week role he carved out in Dallas (79.7 fantasy points from Week 7 to 18; sixth among tight ends). He still has low-end TE1 allure in 2023, but his fantasy value (season-long and week-by-week) would have been much higher if he found a way to remain with the talented Cowboys.

TE Mike Gesicki, New England Patriots

I know what you're thinking: Gesicki was non-existent at times last season. Why do we care about his fantasy value and can his production really get any worse? Well, hear me out. When Gesicki signed with the Patriots, he immediately generated hype within the fantasy community and saw his ADP rise. The idea of him getting away from Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle seemed too good to be true. Unfortunately, this reaction quickly made Gesicki overpriced in fantasy drafts.

The veteran tight end is still the clear backup behind Hunter Henry in a Patriots' offense that doesn't use its tight ends a crazy amount, especially not its backup tight end. (Jonnu Smith had just 27 catches for 245 yards last year, though he admittedly had a versatile role, moving around as a receiver, blocker, and fullback.) If Henry suffers an injury, Gesicki could become fantasy-relevant thanks almost entirely to the red-zone targets he would assume, but until then, temper your expectations.

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