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Week 5 of the NFL season is in the books, and what a week it was. We had an unexpected 89 point outburst between the Chargers and Browns. We also had an anti-climactic dominating performance by the Buffalo Bills as they put themselves as the frontrunner in the AFC after beating Kansas City on the road. Unfortunately, we also have had a rash of injuries that have serious implications for fantasy football.
For Week 6, we will stick with the usual cash gameplan of looking for a solid floor and going from there, especially when it comes to value plays. Value this week can be round at running back and wide receiver, however, options become limited at quarterback and tight end. This week, many ways to go, and more may change with other critical injuries still up in the air heading into Sunday.
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, when you look at value plays for GPP, you are somewhat swinging for the fences. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, be that pass attempts, targets, or carries. So, let's look at the cash value plays for Week 6 of the 2021 NFL season.
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Week 6 Quarterback Cash Game Value Plays
Taylor Heinicke, WAS vs KC | DK: $5,800, FD: $7,300
This is more of a DraftKings play as Taylor Heinicke is much less expensive than on FanDuel. Despite having a disappointing week against the New Orleans Saints last week, Heinicke had averaged over 20 fantasy points per week on both DraftKings and FanDuel the three weeks previous to last. Kansas City has the second-worst defense in the NFL, allowing an average of 437.4 total yards including 296.4 passing yards per game. Heinicke has also rushed for over 40 yards each of the last two games. Anytime a quarterback has the rushing ability, it creates a floor for when they are struggling through the air and some upside if everything is clicking for them.
Carson Wentz, IND vs HOU | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,700
Carson Wentz is a polarizing figure in the fantasy football community. Is he good? I have no idea. Outside of one week, he has provided a nice floor of about 18 fantasy points. Last week he threw for over 400 yards which by far his best performance of the season. This week the Colts have the 7th highest implied total on the slate. Houston has the No. 26 defense, allowing 391.8 yards per game. The tough thing about Wentz is he truly is a floor play. Will he throw four touchdowns in a game? Unlikely. He will go out there, pick up 250-300 yards passing and one or two touchdowns. He should be a safe play against a bad defense and with a high total.
Baker Mayfield, CLE vs AZ | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,800
This Arizona-Cleveland game is a good one to target. Cleveland has the 8th highest implied total on the slate, the point total is set at 48.5 points, and the Browns are without a running back in Nick Chubb. Arizona has a total defense that is around league average. Mayfield has been inconsistent and this game will either go one of two ways. Either Kareem Hunt takes over the entire game, or we have a situation like last week where it turns into a mini shootout. Or, it might just be one of those situations where Mayfield passes for 250 yards and a couple of touchdowns.
In general, quarterback this week is not a great position to pay down at this week.
Week 6 Running Back Cash Game Value Plays
Khalil Herbert, CHI vs GB | DK: $4,900, FD: $5,500
With David Montgomery on the IR and Damien Williams on the COVID-19 reserve list, it is now Khalil Herbert free square week in cash games. Green Bay has a solid run defense, they are No. 10 in the NFL allowing just 102.2 rushing yards per game. Herbert's rushing prop is set at 70.5 yards. If he were to rush for 70 yards, and catch a couple of passes, he likely scores at least 10 fantasy points. Add in a touchdown, and he would be at 15-16 fantasy points. If he is the primary back on Sunday, I would assume he gets 15 carries and volume is the key to running backs.
Darrel Williams, KC at WAS | DK: $4,900 FD: $5,200
Washington has the No. 18 rush defense in the league, allowing 114.5 rushing yards per game. Last week was a bit of a disappointment for Williams as he rushed just five times for 27 yards and caught three passes for 18 yards. It was also a game that Kansas City was down for most of the game, and Buffalo has a much stronger defense than Washington does. This game has the highest total on the slate and Kansas City is a 6.5 point favorite. This is a nice spot for a Williams bounce-back.
Chuba Hubbard, CAR vs. MIN | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,900
With Christian McCaffery out, it is another week to roster Chuba Hubbard. Minnesota has the No. 22 rushing defense, allowing 130 yards rushing per game. Last week Hubbard had 24 rushing attempts for 101 yards and caught five passes on six targets for 33 yards. Philadelphia's rush defense isn't any better nor is it much worse than Minnesota's.
Week 6 Wide Receiver Cash Game Value Plays
Tyler Boyd, CIN at DET | DK: $5,400, FD: $6,300
While Ja'Marr Chase has been impressive, Tyler Boyd has the same number of targets on the season as Chase does. They both average seven targets per game which translates to a 25.4% target share. Detroit is league average in pass defense, allowing 251 yards receiving per game. The prop market has Boyd at 4.5 receptions and 50.5 points, which is a solid baseline on what to expect. Boyd could very well end up in the end zone and if so, he will exceed value at his price tag
Tim Patrick, DEN vs LV | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,100
Tim Patrick is third on the Broncos in targets per game, however, he has been earning a similar number of targets as Noah Fant. Patrick has a similar prop market as Boyd, about a 10 point PPR floor this week. Anytime I can find a 10 point PPR baseline at a reasonable price, I am interested. All it takes is to score a touchdown to smash value.
Michael Pittman Jr., IND vs. HOU | DK: $5,500, FD: $5,800
Michael Pittman Jr commands the most targets in this Indianapolis offense, averaging 8.6 targets per game and the next highest player on the team is 5.6 targets per game. Pittman is No. 25 among WRs in Air Yards with 428 on the season. Pittman has 37.4% of the team's air yards and 25% of the targets. Pittman profiles as similar to the above targets with some slightly better underlying metrics. It really is about picking which one you want to roster in your lineup. They are all in similar matchups. Houston's pass defense is average and Pittman is in a good spot to have a productive afternoon.
Week 6 Tight End Cash Game Value Plays
Ricky Seals-Jones, WAS vs. KC | DK: $3,000, FD: $5,000
Ricky Seals-Jones fills in for an injured Logan Thomas. Last week he catches five passes for 41 yards. This week, he is priced up on FanDuel but still priced as a punt play on DraftKings. The Kansas City defense is not good. Terry McLaurin might not play. I am not saying Seals-Jones is going to take all the vacated production, but he will likely take some of it. If his baseline projection right now is 3-4 receptions for 35 yards, that has to go up, at least a little bit if McLaurin is out. Like most low-priced tight ends, whether he hits value is going to depend on whether he scores a touchdown, which is impossible to predict. Kansas City allows 11.4 fantasy points per week to tight ends and if things break right, Seals-Jones can get there.
Noah Fant, DEN vs LV | DK: $4,800, FD: $5,800
Noah Fant has been the second or third option for Denver all year. Similar to other value play tight ends, the production is scoring dependent. Fant averages 6.2 targets per game and can be expected to catch 3 or 4 passes for 40 yards or so. He is No. 5 among qualified tight ends in target percentage (18%). The Raiders allow 8.8 fantasy points per game against tight ends thus far this season. This is not great, but Fant is talented enough to break those averages and can find a nice floor with some salary savings to go spend up at other positions.
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