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Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate. It's hard to believe we've already reached one of the most fun NFL DFS days of the year, but here we are...the Thanksgiving Day slate! I hope you all have a great holiday filled with friends, family, great food, and plenty of football! Let's get into this awesome slate...
This week's DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected DK points and ownership, overall upside/talent levels, and opportunity, as well as factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available on DK for Thanksgiving Day. When constructing lineups, keep in mind that this three-game slate is fundamentally different than a full slate with 10-plus games to choose from.
Also, be sure to check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups -- let's dominate this slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Thanksgiving Day DFS Picks
Dak Prescott - WAS @ DAL ($6,800)
A solid, if unspectacular Week 11 performance aside, Dak Prescott has been phenomenal over the past month. Since coming out of their Week 7 bye with a more pass-heavy focus, this Cowboys offense has been sizzling. Prescott comes into a Thanksgiving Day tilt against a soft Commanders defense averaging 317.4 passing yards and 30.4 DraftKings points per game, while sporting a 13:2 TD-to-INT ratio over Dallas' last four.
The new highest-graded QB in the NFL
Dak Prescott 🗣️ pic.twitter.com/BHXvFtS9bK
— PFF (@PFF) November 21, 2023
The matchup against Washington is pristine. This struggling unit dealt stud rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the NFL trade deadline, while their 2023 first-round draft pick, CB Emmanuel Forbes, has been unceremoniously benched for poor play. The Commanders rank dead last in the NFL in DraftKings points and passing TDs allowed to the QB position.
Brock Purdy - SF @ SEA ($6,100)
It's been a season of peaks and valleys for Purdy. After playing extremely well while leading the Niners to a 5-0 start, a concussion and poor play led to three straight losses for San Fran - and some questions about Purdy - in Weeks 6-8.
However, the second-year signal caller appears to have figured things out during the team's Week 9 bye and has looked phenomenal over the last two weeks, throwing for 629 yards, six TDs, and zero INTs across the Niners' last two games.
Brock Purdy season ranks
NFL Rank
Pass Rating 115.1 1st
Comp pct 70.2% 1st
TD/Att 6.5% 1st
Yards/Att 9.7 1st
Yards/Comp 13.8 1st pic.twitter.com/EdrEsr7aZ0— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 21, 2023
Purdy has always been at his best when being uber-efficient on 25-30 pass attempts per game. While that lack of volume can be scary from a DFS perspective, Purdy's strong fantasy production and the explosive offensive weapons at his disposal can't be ignored, especially on this three-game Thanksgiving slate.
QB PIVOT PLAY: Jordan Love ($5,500)
DraftKings Running Backs - Thanksgiving Day DFS Picks
Christian McCaffrey - SF @ SEA ($8,700)
CMC has been a DFS superstar in 2023 and is a very scary fade on a three-game slate. His 25.3 DraftKings points per game is the best in the NFL at the RB position and trails only Tyreek Hill overall. He's now found the end zone in 17 of his last 18 games.
Christian McCaffrey has gone 50 consecutive non-injured/traded games with 100+ yards and/or a touchdown.
*Saints game from last year doesn’t count b/c of knee irritation look it up
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) November 19, 2023
McCaffrey's talent, locked-in volume, and dual-threat skill set make him virtually matchup-proof on a weekly basis. His Thanksgiving night matchup against the Seahawks certainly isn't one to fear. Seattle has relinquished the league's third-most rushing TDs (10) to opposing running backs and has been notably susceptible to pass-catching backs, allowing a chunky 6.27 yards per target to enemy RBs through the air.
The Niners' superstar is about as close as it gets to a "sure thing" in fantasy football right now. His combination of DFS floor and ceiling is unmatched on this slate.
Brian Robinson Jr. - WAS @ DAL ($5,900)
Sometimes on these short slates, we have to take on a less-than-desirable matchup in an attempt to get contrarian. CMC, Gibbs, and Pollard are going to garner ownership, while injuries shoot skyrocket interest in both Zach Charbonnet and A.J. Dillon. As a result - and thanks to a brutal matchup against the Cowboys - I expect Commanders back Brian Robinson Jr. to go relatively overlooked.
We'll want to keep an eye on the status of Antonio Gibson, but if he's out of the Washington lineup for the second straight week, Robinson would again earn true workhorse volume. In Gibson's absence in Week 11, he not only garnered 17 carries but also led the Commanders in targets with nine, while playing an eye-popping 78% of Washington's offensive snaps.
Brian Robinson Jr. is coming off a monster game against Seattle.
He's playing well.
The offense is locked in.BRob told me, "we can be as good as we want to be...everyone on offense has something to work on." pic.twitter.com/PDNyvq1K5S
— Scott Abraham (@Scott7news) November 15, 2023
Yes, it's a scary matchup, but we know that crazy things can happen on these small slates and sometimes we have to be a little bit uncomfortable when constructing GPP lineups. Robinson is a player that's been trending up and could be in for a monster workload against Dallas.
RB PIVOT PLAY: David Montgomery ($6,300)
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DraftKings Wide Receivers - Thanksgiving Day DFS Picks
Amon-Ra St. Brown - GB @ DET ($8,500)
The Sun God has been a machine for Detroit in 2023. While the emergence of rookie tight end Sam LaPorta has helped, St. Brown has been forced to carry the load for this Lions' passing attack and sports an elite 28.9% team target share. He's answered the call in a big, ranking inside the top 10 in the NFL at the WR position in targets (98), receptions (73), and receiving yards (898) on the year.
Is there anyone more consistent in fantasy than the Sun God? 19 of his last 20 games, Amon-Ra St. Brown has seen at least 7+ targets. That’s bonkers. pic.twitter.com/7hiRkZF7KX
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) November 20, 2023
ARSB draws a Turkey Day matchup against a middling Green Bay secondary that is fresh off being carved up for a 10/116/1 stat line by Keenan Allen in Week 11. St. Brown himself posted five catches for 56 yards and a score against the Packers when the teams met in Week 4. He should once again feast in this environment.
Jayden Reed - GB @ DET ($4,200)
The Packers' rookie continues to flash impressive play-making ability and a nose for the end zone. Reed has now found the paint and topped 19 DraftKings points in each Green Bay's last two games while topping 80 receiving yards in two of the team's last four.
Jayden Reed is getting hot at the right time 😮💨
Two straight weeks of 19+ points and 4 of the last 5 weeks he has scored in double digits 👀
— FFTony (@ItsJustFantasy_) November 22, 2023
Reed's lack of consistently high volume is frustrating, as he continues to share work with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs in the Packers receiving corps. However, his $4.2k price tag is an interesting way to save salary at the WR position on this slate and his matchup against a Lions secondary that's allowed the NFL's second-most receiving TDs (12) to the WR position is intriguing.
WR PIVOT PLAY: Brandin Cooks ($4,500)
DraftKings Tight Ends - Thanksgiving Day Picks
George Kittle - SF @ SEA ($6,000)
I can't remember a Thanksgiving slate with so many great options at the tight end position. While we're normally scrambling just to find an option that doesn't make us want to lose our mashed potatoes, this year's TE offerings are a truly elite smorgasbord.
At the tip-top of the salary scale is stud Niners end George Kittle. The fun-loving Kittle has been on an absolute tear of late, averaging an eye-popping 24.45 DraftKings points per game over San Fran's last three. He has a good chance to continue that scoring binge against the Seahawks.
The dab will never die pic.twitter.com/MnzPENj9LG
— George Kittle (@gkittle46) November 20, 2023
Pete Carroll's squad has been one of the NFL's worst defensive units against the position for the last few years and not much has changed in 2023, as Seattle ranks bottom-10 in the league in receiving yards (542), yards per target (7.74), and catch rate (75.7%) allowed to opposing tight ends.
Jake Ferguson - WAS @ DAL ($3,900)
While former Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz has thrived in Houston, his offseason departure has allowed Jake Ferguson to shine in 2023. The second-year end out of Wisconsin has proven himself to be a legitimate threat in the Dallas passing attack. Ferguson leads all NFL tight ends in red zone targets (18) and is tied for third at the position with four receiving TDs.
You might not realize it, but Jake Ferguson has more catches, yards, and touchdowns per game this year than Dalton Schultz had last season. And don't look now, but he's turned into one of the best blocking tight ends in the league this year. pic.twitter.com/ycZA0uYuAW
— Dan Rogers (@DannyPhantom24) November 16, 2023
His Thanksgiving Day matchup is a good one. The Commanders have allowed the NFL's second-most TDs (five) to the TE position this season and have relinquished the league's 12th-most DraftKings points to enemy tight ends.
TE PIVOT PLAY: Tucker Kraft ($2,500)
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