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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert NFL DFS prop picks for Week 2. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
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As always, there are some solid props we can look to take advantage of.
Cowboys @ Chargers More or Less Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Justin Herbert more than 300.5 passing yards and Dak Prescott less than 305.5 passing yards
While this is a high number to start with, Herbert just threw for 337 yards in a lower scoring game against a solid Washington Football Team Defense last week. This week, he is playing a Cowboys secondary that got lit up for 379 passing yards. This game has the makings of another shootout with two high-powered offenses with a total sitting at 55.5.
While I do think this game shoots a bit, especially from the Chargers' side, I think Dak will end up staying under his total and the Cowboys will rely a bit more on Zeke vs. a tough pass defense. The Chargers finished 2020 ranked seventh overall in terms of passing yards allowed per game by allowing an average of just 218 yards per game. They also only allowed three quarterbacks to eclipse this total on the season and those three were Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Patrick Mahomes. They also started 2021 off on the right foot as they allowed the Washington Football team to throw for just 135 yards last week. While Dak has the ability to get over this total, I think they will want to slow the game down and keep the Charger offense off the field as much as possible and run it with Zeke.
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Early Slate Touchdown Dance Contest
Recommended Prop Pick:
Nick Chubb, Alvin Kamara, and David Montgomery to combine for more than 2.5 touchdowns
Let's see if we can get a share of the $5,000 prize pool if all three of these backs score at least one touchdown Sunday. Regardless, if all of them combine for at least three touchdowns, we will win 1.5x our buy-in.
Chubb might be one of my favorite plays this week as the Browns look to bounce back from a horrible loss late last week against the Kansas City Chiefs. He should find the matchup ripe for the picking in this one as the Texans gave up the most rushing yards to backs in 2020 by allowing nearly 146 yards per game. Chubb saw 15 carries for 83 yards last week against the Chiefs and should be in line for a bigger workload this week, especially considering the Browns are 12.5-point favorites as I type this.
Kamara is an easy choice in this game, especially after he was given 23 touches last week against the Green Bay Packers. The total in this game is sitting at just 44, but given that Kamara is the focal point of this offense, it makes sense to pencil him in here. In 2020, the Panthers allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to backs and also gave up the second-most targets to them in the passing game. Kamara should feast in this game and is a strong candidate to find the end zone as always.
I initially had Josh Jacobs in this spot, but he has since been ruled out, so David Montgomery could make a ton of sense in a game where the Bears are favored by two points. Last week, he was given the ball 16 times and ran for 108 yards and a touchdown on a tough Rams run defense. This week, he gets the Bengals who gave up the third-most rushing yards to backs in 2020 and could find themselves in a tough spot on the road this week. Montgomery will likely shoulder the load early and often in this one unless the Bears get behind, but even if they do get behind, it should not be to the point where Chicago feels the need to abandon the run altogether.
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