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Welcome back, RotoBallers! We're back at it again with some Week 16 Thursday Night Football DFS picks. We have a fun matchup between two up-and-coming teams as the Jaguars (6-8) look to follow up on their massive upset against Dallas as they head up to New (Jersey) to take on the Jets (7-7). Both teams are still in the mix for a playoff spot, and a win tonight would go a long way toward their chances of making it. Let's take a look at how this affects our DFS lineups.
We've been pretty successful so far with these showdown slates and hopefully, that trend continues throughout this year. Most of us started our fantasy journeys with football, so it's always nice when it comes around once again. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it.
I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Jaguars vs. Jets NFL DFS showdown slate on December 22nd. These NFL DFS lineup picks can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel. If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like!
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MVP/Captain Plays
Trevor Lawrence - QB, $17,100 (DK), $16,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 3,520 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, seven interceptions.
- 2022 Offensive Pass DVOA: 28.3% (sixth), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -8.8% (sixth), per Football Outsiders.
I'll start things off with Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence has been really coming into his own in the latter part of this season, with 11 touchdowns to just one interception over his last four games. This includes a massive 318-yard and four-touchdown performance against Dallas on Sunday. While the Jets' defense is a bit more vaunted than the now banged-up Dallas defense, I still rate Trevor as my favorite 1.5x play tonight, despite his low projections on my model for 223.58 passing yards, 1.3 touchdowns, and 0.82 interceptions.
Zonovan Knight - RB, $10,500 (DK), $12,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 59 attempts, 253 rushing yards, 10 targets, 10 receptions, 68 receiving yards, and one touchdown.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -4.1% (16th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -9% (14th), per Football Outsiders
On the other side of the field, I'll take a look at Zonovan Knight. Knight had a pretty quiet game on Sunday, rushing for just 23 yards on 13 carries against the Lions. He gets a better matchup against the Jaguars' defense that sits in the middle of the pack in terms of DVOA. I project Knight for 59.17 yards on 15.59 carries as well as 1.53 receptions on 2.47 targets for 13.68 yards and a 55% chance of finding the end zone. He's cheap enough on DraftKings for me to happily start some lineups with him at captain.
Other Captains/MVPs: Garrett Wilson, Zay Jones, Travis Etienne Jr.
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DFS Flex Plays
Travis Etienne Jr. - RB, $9,600 (DK), $14,000 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 182 carries, 917 rushing yards, 37 targets, 27 receptions, 23 receiving yards, and four touchdowns.
- 2022 Offensive Rush DVOA: -4.7% (17th), per Football Outsiders.
- 2022 Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -14.6% (seventh), per Football Outsiders
I'll take a look at Travis Etienne next. The "Etienne experience" has been a bit of a rollercoaster this season for both season-long and DFS players alike. The matchup against the Jets isn't an easy one, as the Jags have a projected rush DVOA of -15.05%. However, I have him projected for 66.92 yards on 17.73 carries as well as 1.96 receptions for 15.19 yards on 2.57 targets. His 45% projection to score a touchdown is actually the highest among all Jaguars players tonight.
Garrett Wilson - WR, $9,000 (DK), $13,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 110 targets, 67 receptions, 966 receiving yards, and four touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Darious Williams): 15% targets per route, 58% catch rate, 0.21 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
I'll take a look at two Jets pass-catchers in the event you wanted to slot Zach Wilson in the 1.5x spot tonight, starting with Garrett Wilson. Wilson has both the best individual matchup according to PFF (93.77) and the best projected DVOA (12.7%) among all Jets receivers tonight. My model projects him for 4.67 receptions on 7.67 targets for 62.01 receiving yards and a 46% chance of finding the end zone.
Other Flex Options: Zach Wilson, Evan Engram
DFS Value Plays
Tyler Conklin - TE, $3,200 (DK), $6,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 73 targets, 46 receptions, 425 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Devin Lloyd): 18% targets per route, 85% catch rate, 0.37 fantasy points per route, per PFF.
The other pass catcher I'll take a look at is Tyler Conklin. While Wilson leads the way in terms of matchups, Conklin isn't far behind. As you can see above the Jaguars tend to leak against tight ends, which is accentuated given the Jets' projected 29.1% DVOA when targeting tight ends. My model projects Conklin to grab 3.19 of his 4.79 targets for 34.61 yards and a 24% chance of finding the end zone tonight.
Riley Patterson - K, $4,000 (DK), $8,500 (FD)
Key Stats
- 2022 Stats: 23 field goals made, 27 field goals attempted, 29 extra points made, 30 extra points attempted.
Last but not least I'll take a look at the Jags' kicker Riley Patterson. Patterson has been solid for the Jaguars this season, and as I mentioned earlier when talking about Trevor Lawrence, the Jags' offense is starting to click. The matchup against the Jets is no easy one, and I'll want to take a look at Patterson in case a few of Jacksonville's drives stall out. The Jets are in the middle of the pack in terms of allowing fantasy points to kickers, but I'll "roll with Riley" here.
Other Value Plays: CJ Uzomah, Greg Zuerlien, Jamal Agnew
Enjoy your night and good luck everyone!
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