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Shaun Evans looks into the NFL DFS projections for Week 15 to pick out some spots to attack and mispriced players for your FanDuel and DraftKings DFS lineups.
The NFL DFS is getting more exciting as we inch closer to the playoffs. Teams are securing playoff spots and others are fighting to stay alive. Let us see what direction the data points us in for Week 15.
This piece is intended to be a one-stop shop for readers to begin their DFS research for the week. While it always pays to wait for all the relevant information regarding weather, injuries, and even Vegas line movement during the week, it's also a good idea to get out in front of things early as there is a lot of data to consume!
We are looking at the NFL DFS main slate for FanDuel and DraftKings on Sunday, December 15th. This analysis and data dump will vary from week to week and I hope it helps kick-start your research. Do yourself a favor if you haven't already and pick up an NFL RotoBaller Premium Season Pass and get all of the premium NFL DFS tools to help you have a successful season.
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Week 15 Vegas Totals and Team Data
In this section, we take a look at which teams should be expected to put up the most actual points this week (which usually means fantasy points, too).
You shouldn't target ONLY the teams that are expected to score the most points, but the majority of your players are going to come from these teams each week. Deciding which offenses are worthy of stacking (and, of course, how you are going to stack them) is the challenge!
Top Implied Team Totals for Week 15: Main Slate Only
- Ravens - 29
- Lions - 27.5
- Cardinals - 26.5
- Bengals - 26
- Bills - 26
2024 Top-Scoring Offenses: Points Per Game
- Lions - 32.1
- Bills - 30.5
- Ravens - 29.5
- Commanders - 28.9
- Buccaneers - 27.9
2024 Stingiest Defenses: Points Allowed Per Game
- Chargers - 15.9
- Broncos - 18.0
- Eagles - 18.0
- Lions - 18.0
- Steelers - 18.3
There is one team that pops out in all three categories and that is the Detroit Lions. They are averaging 32.1 points per game while holding teams to just 18 points. They have an implied team total of 27.5 and will be squaring off against Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. It should be an exciting matchup but it will also hold a lot of the ownership for the Sunday main slate. I wouldn't avoid the matchup but look for other spots to get the ownership advantage elsewhere.
Among all @NFL QBs this season, @Lions QB @JaredGoff16 ranks:
- 1st in passing first down % (43.0%)
- 2nd in passer rating (109.1)
- 2nd in completion % (72.4%)
- 3rd in yards/att. (8.57)
- 3rd in games with 2+ passing TDs (9)
- 5th in passing TDs (25)#ProBowlVote #OnePride pic.twitter.com/zhMEKkTaAt— Detroit Lions PR (@LionsPR) December 10, 2024
Week 15 DFS Matchups
Here, we want to get specific not only with some mismatches for both passing and rushing offenses, but some individual positional matchups as well. Rankings will be based on the data that we have so far for the 2024 season.
Top-5 Matchups for Passing Offenses
(Yards Passing and Yards Allowed Passing ranks in parentheses)
- Detroit (4) vs. Buffalo (9)
- Baltimore (5) vs. N.Y. Giants (6)
- Tampa Bay (6) vs. L.A. Chargers (8)
- Dallas (10) vs. Carolina (12)
- Buffalo (12) vs. Detroit (23)
On paper, a lot of the top passing offenses may come into some trouble on Sunday. However, some of these teams' offenses are firing on all cylinders. The Baltimore Ravens will be facing off against the New York Giants and the Giants are looking bad.
With an implied total of 29 points, the Ravens most likely could blow the Giants out of the water through the air and on the ground. They rank very well in both categories. You either will lose to Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson on the ground or Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews through the air. Either way, the Ravens will be a popular stacking choice for cash games, and for good reason.
Top-5 Matchups for Rushing Offenses
- Philadelphia (1) vs. Pittsburgh (4)
- Baltimore (2) vs. N.Y. Giants (29)
- Washington (3) vs. New Orleans (25)
- Detroit (4) vs. Buffalo (19)
- Arizona (6) vs. New England (20)
Saquon Barkley and the Philadelphia Eagles will face a very tough Pittsburgh defense. They will also be trying to slow down the Steelers' offense at the same time. Either way, this should be a matchup to look at. While not many will avoid Barkley, his ownership may be slightly lower this week due to facing a tough Steelers run defense. The Eagles may also try to get A.J. Brown more involved (again) as the star receiver seemed frustrated after Week 14.
Detroit also continues to control the ranks as they have a good matchup for Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery on the ground. The Buffalo Bills defense ranks 19th and will have their hands full once again. Detroit is averaging 151.1 rushing yards per game and it will be a balanced run game for both Gibbs and Montgomery.
Lamar currently has the highest passer rating and touchdown percentage of any quarterback in the league.
116.3 RTG
8.7 TD%He has +1400 odds to win NFL MVP. pic.twitter.com/DDW29hf2w3
— StatMuse Football (@statmusefb) December 9, 2024
2024 Top-5 DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matchups for Each Position
(Top matchup listed first, player to target in parentheses)
QB - Tampa Bay (Herbert), Cincinnati (Levis), Jacksonville (Rodgers), Baltimore (Locke), Dallas (Young)
RB - Carolina (Dowdle), Jacksonville (Hall/Allen), Buffalo (Gibbs/Montgomery), Indianapolis (Williams), Dallas (Hubbard)
WR -Baltimore (Nabers), Jacksonville (Wilson), Detroit (Cooper), Houston (Hill), New Orleans (McLaurin)
TE - Carolina (Ferguson), Cincinnati (Okonkwo), Kansas City (Njoku), Indianapolis (Trautman), Tampa Bay (Smartt)
DEF - TEN (CIN), NYG (BAL), DAL (CAR), NE (ARI), CLE (KC)
One team that pops up on the defense vs. position list is the New York Jets which includes Aaron Rodgers, Braelon Allen, and Garrett Wilson. The Jets have not been a solid team to stack this year or even attack but with a good matchup versus the Jacksonville Jaguars, they are ones to look at. The Jaguars are giving up 132.1 on the ground and 263.5 through the air. It looks like this week many will target the Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and Buffalo Bills as their main stacks.
Week 15 DFS Salary Analysis
If you play exclusively on FanDuel or DraftKings (unlike me), then you may not find this next part all that helpful. But for those of you who play on both sites, what I attempted to do here was to find which impact players were significantly cheaper on one site than the other.
And while you will probably end up playing a similar player pool on both sites, the point-per-dollar value of each player matters, especially when making some tough decisions for your cash-game build. Remember that projections are also going to vary from FanDuel to DraftKings, as DK uses full-PPR scoring as well as player performance bonuses.
To compare prices, I found the percentage of the salary cap that rostering each player costs (remember that DK uses a $50K salary cap, while FanDuel uses $60K). Both sites have the same roster build with nine roster spots.
FanDuel Values (FD vs. DK)
- David Montgomery ($7.7K vs. $7K)
- Rhamondre Stevenson ($6.6K vs. $5.9K)
- Jameson Williams ($6.4K vs. $5.6K)
- Xavier Worthy ($6K vs. $5.1K)
- DeMario Douglas ($5.3K vs. $4.5K)
DraftKings Values (DK vs. FD)
- Aaron Rodgers ($5.4K vs. $7.1K)
- Bryce Youngs ($5.3K vs. $6.8K)
- Braelon Allen ($5.4K vs. $6.4K)
- Amari Cooper ($5.3K vs. $5.9K)
- Michael Wilson ($4.4K vs. $5.4K)
Cheap Stacks (DK vs. FD)
There are plenty of cheap value plays to fit around expensive stacks. As the pricing tightens up each week, I like to look for some of the cheapest viable stacks that feature the QB and one of their receivers (could be WR1, WR2, or TE1).
- Rodgers - Wilson ($11.9K vs. $14.5K)
- Young - Theilen ($10.9K vs. $12.9K)
- Goff - Williams ($12.1K vs. $14.4K)
- Levis - Ridley ($10.9K vs. $12.6K)
- Winston - Jeudy ($11.7K vs. $13.9K)
- Herbert - Palmer ($10.5K vs. $13K)
Alright, that's it for Week 15 and my data dump! I took quite a bit of time to find some stats that I hope you find helpful so that you don't have to! Good luck and make sure you continue following RotoBaller all season long for the best fantasy football, DFS, and betting advice!
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