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Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Wild Card Weekend of the 2022 NFL season. His free pick targets the under.
Rounding off the regular season with a 2-0 card was a nice touch for the record. Now we go into the playoffs, where a year ago I went on a great run to get me back to respectable after a horrendous regular season. This has been a bonkers NFL season which has made it a challenge to handicap, but overall I've enjoyed writing out my article again this season. I'm not sure I love the Wild Card Weekend card but the goal is to find value where I can. That being said, I only have one play this weekend.
I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
- 2022 Record: 24-20, +3.3 units
- Spread: 7-6, +0.15 units
- Total/Team Total: 11-12, -2.05 units
- Moneyline: 4-2, +2.5 units
- Props: 0-0
- Parlays/Teasers: 2-0, +2.7 units
Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Wild Card Round NFL Betting Picks - Total
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-13.5)
Sunday 1/15, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 43.5
The Dolphins are set to start Skylar Thompson with Tua Tagovailoa (concussion) still not cleared. Thompson is very bad and has played as such. Now he gets to face the Bills' defense. Needless to say, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle's numbers crumble with Thomson throwing to them. Raheem Mostert (thumb) hasn't practiced all week, so look for Jeff Wilson Jr. to be the workhorse of this offense. Defensively, Miami isn't fit to challenge this Buffalo passing game, but their 4th ranked run defense by DVOA gives them some hope to slow down Buffalo.
The Buffalo Bills have been through a wild ride the last two weeks but now that things have settled down they can focus on the playoffs. They've scored at least 32 points in each of the last three games and are pretty healthy coming into the playoffs. Josh Allen has been steady but not spectacular because he hasn't needed to be. However, he should have his way with Miami. He's also gotten some help from a strong run game this season, with Allen included in that attack.
Defensively, Buffalo is ranked 4th overall by DVOA and 3rd against the run, which could be Miami's only chance at building an offensive game plan on Sunday.
I'm fading Miami so hard here that I don't think they score double-digit points. You could make a strong argument for Buffalo on the spread, but given Buffalo's prowess defensively, I don't think the Bills will have to score much to get a comfortable lead and make sure their team stays healthy into the divisional round. Give me the under.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-110, BetMGM) Bet to win 1 Unit
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