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Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season. His free picks target the under, over and the moneyline.
What a weird Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season that it was. We saw garbage time upsets, complete blowouts, and total offensive duds from multiple teams. We finished up going 1-2 which winds up breaking us almost even in terms of units through just two articles.
I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
- 2022 Record: 3-3, -0.02 units
- Spread: 0-0
- Total/Team Total: 2-2, -0.2 units
- Moneyline: 1-1, +0.18 units
- Props: 0-0
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Week 3 NFL Betting Picks - Spread
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Carolina Panthers
Sunday 9/25, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 40.5
Following an outstanding comeback win in Week 1, the Saints dropped a snooze fest with the Bucs in Week 2. Granted, Alvin Kamara (rib) didn't play last week and is questionable for this week but it goes without saying his importance to the offense. Jameis Winston was his old-self, tossing three interceptions and never really looking comfortable. As a unit, the offense is averaging 5.6 yards per play, which is Top 10 in the league, but there is clear room for improvement.
Defensively, the Saints did an outstanding job limiting the Bucs to just 260 yards of offense. Tom Brady was never comfortable, and actually frustrated at times, so if this unit can make the GOAT frustrated, who's to say what they can do to Baker Mayfield.
I am middling on Baker Mayfield. I don't think he's as bad as many in Cleveland thought, but I don't think he's taking any NFL team to the next level. He obviously has Christian McCaffrey in his backfield, but CMC hasn't exactly taken the league by storm in his return from injury. The offense has averaged just 5.2 ypp and only 16.5 first downs per game, so moving the ball consistently has been an issue.
The Panthers defense held the Giants in check, despite the loss, and rank around the middle of the pack in DVOA through two weeks. Their strength lies against the pass, allowing under 170 passing yards in both games so far. However, Jacoby Brissett and Daniel Jones aren't exactly formidable opponents.
This is one matchup this week where it's tough to get a gauge for where the team is going. However, with back-to-back three point or less losses, I'll take the home team getting points in a divisional game. If Kamara plays, I don't love the position as much, but if he does make the lineup, I question if he's 100%. Give me the Panthers at home.
Pick: Panthers +3 (-114, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
Week 3 NFL Betting Picks - Total
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
Sunday 9/25 1:00PM EST | O/U: 43.5
There is life surrounding the Detroit Lions franchise following a 36-27 win over Washington a week ago. Jared Goff and Amon-Ra St. Brown have been one of the hottest quarterback connections in football so far with 180 yards and three touchdowns. It's helped spread out the offense which in turn helps D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams get doing as well. As an offense, they've eclipsed 385 yards in both games, but both games have had very odd game flows.
Minnesota has had a weird schedule so far as well. They held the Packers to just seven points in Week 1 then got gashed by the Eagles in Week 2. The 30th ranked defense by DVOA seems to point the Week 2 offering is more of what to expect, but I think this matchup is the real defense we'll see the rest of the year.
Detroit's offense has been a sight for sore eyes to the fans, fantasy managers, and sports bettors. The question is will it continue? I don't think so. While Minnesota tends to be one of the most overrated teams annually, they'll put a little stop gap to the Lions offense here. And barring any defensive touchdowns by the Lions (very possible with Kirk Cousins in tow), this will be a loss for the Lions and thus a low-scoring day.
Pick: Detroit Team Total Under 23.5 (-106, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
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