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Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 18 of the 2022 NFL season. His free picks target the under and a six-point teaser.
The two picks from Week 17 took a split, which was tough to swallow considering we were just two points away from a 2-0 day. The Bears offense was completely anemic against a horrendous Lions defense. The under for Arizona/Atlanta hit even the closing number, which dropped two points from my position, after it was announced Colt McCoy would not be starting. We head into the always treacherous final week of the regular season just around one unit ahead of schedule.
I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
- 2022 Record: 22-20, +0.9 unit
- Spread: 7-6, +0.15 units
- Total/Team Total: 10-12, -3.05 units
- Moneyline: 4-2, +2.5 units
- Props: 0-0
- Parlays/Teasers: 1-0, +1.3 units
Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Week 18 NFL Betting Picks - Total
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5)
Sunday 1/8, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 42.5
The Panthers have shown some spunk the last few weeks, playing tight with the Steelers, dismantling the Lions, and despite a fourth quarter blowup, held a lead for much of last week's game against Tampa Bay. Since becoming the full-time starter in Week 12, Sam Darnold has been efficient and careful with the football. The run game behind him has been inconsistent, but shown signs of excitement, including the 320 yard game in Week 16. Defensively, they're behind the 8-ball often, but do just an "okay" job generating pressure on the quarterback.
Following their Week 14 bye week, the Saints are on a three-game win streak with an average differential of six points. They've relied heavily on their defense but also on the offense to maintain the ball, which considering how the season started for New Orleans, their three total turnovers are pretty solid. Alvin Kamara and Taysom Hill are an odd backfield duo, but they should stick with whatever keeps Andy Dalton from throwing interceptions. Their pass defense is top notch with the run defense showing signs of promise, yet inconsistency.
Both of these offenses play at a slow pace and have little to be excited about, in terms of playmakers. I give the slight edge to New Orleans, due to the defensive prowess, but we're targeting the total here. Given said pace numbers, with the inconsistency of both teams on offense, I don't see a reason why this total has jumped 2.5/3 points since it's opening line. Give me the under.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-110, BetMGM) Bet to win 1 Unit
Houston Texas at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)
Minnesota Vikings (-7.5) at Chicago Bears
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-14)
Sunday 1/8
Fresh off one of their worst efforts of the season, I think Davis Mills tries to show off one last time before likely losing his job to whichever quarterback the Texans take in the 2023 draft. Meanwhile, the Colts are in just as poor of a spot and are trying to pick up as good a draft pick as possible. Two teams set to play uninspired football in their final game of the year with nothing to play for. Pick: Houston +2.5>+8.5
Yet another team off an embarrassing loss in Week 17, the Vikings were everyone's favorites for "fraud" of the 2022-23 season and they're backing it up. With nine wins this season by a touchdown or less, you'd think that would help them, but they looked totally lost against the Packers. Chicago on the other hand will be starting Nathan Peterman who may be fighting for his last NFL roster spot ever. This season has been a total wash for the Bears and they're grasping to whatever straws they can in Week 18. Pick: Minnesota -7.5>-1.5
The Giants have clinched their playoff berth and are one of the most surprising teams this season. Fresh off their most points scored this season, Daniel Jones and company will have their hands full with a stout Eagles defense. Jones and Saquon Barkley will need to take advantage of any opportunity given to them.
On the Philly side, Jalen Hurts (shoulder) is expected back but as a whole, this team is very banged up. A win is urgent to clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC. I'm pretty sure that Philly will put their best effort forward to ensure a win and clinch that top seed, but am willing to bet that 20 points is way too much for them to cover against a relatively capable Giants team. Pick: Giants +14>+20
Pick: 6 point Teaser (+140, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
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