NFL Betting Picks for Week 17 - Best Bets, Expert Odds and Predictions

December 30, 2022

Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for Week 17 of the 2022 NFL season. His free picks target the over and the under.

The roller coaster NFL season continues which means the gambling world also feels the effects. A 2-0 Week 16 puts me back in the green for the season after both Christmas Eve unders hit. Unders are never really fun, but when you have a weather system that effects a strong majority of the country, you have to play smart.

I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.

• 2022 Record: 21-19, +1 unit
• Spread: 7-6, +0.15 units
• Total/Team Total: 9-11, -2.95 units
• Moneyline: 4-2, +2.5 units
• Props: 0-0
• Parlays/Teasers: 1-0, +1.3 units

Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!

Week 17 NFL Betting Picks - Total

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6)

Sunday 1/1, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 52

Justin Fields returned in Week 16 but faced a tough Buffalo defense and he performed  about as expected. Now he gets to face a treacherous Detroit defense that allows the third most passing yards and the most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks. There isn't much around Fields other than David Montgomery. Defensively, this definitely isn't the '85 Bears. This Chicago unit is ranked just as bad, if not worst than Detroit. One bright side is they've averaged two takeaways in the L3.

I think every fan in America is rooting for the Lions this season. Things are finally coming into place for this team. Despite their loss to Carolina last week, Jared Goff threw for 355 yards and three touchdowns. He's also done a great job taking care of the football - he hasn't thrown an interception since Week 9. If the run game can gain some consistency with the two-headed approach, the Lions are surprisingly scary. It's the defense that needs a total rebuild as they're ranked dead last, allowing 26.7 ppg.

Chicago head coach Matt Eberflus said he's not sitting Fields even though the Bears are out of it, so he is definitely playing to win. Meanwhile, Detroit is playing some exciting football (offensively at least) and are showing a lot of heart playing for Dan Campbell. This total has jumped a little since last week (from 48.5) but hovered around 51 or 52 for a few days. I look for a huge game from Fields and Goff at home. These are abysmal defenses with both teams playing to win a heated divisional game.

Pick: Over 52 (-110, BetMGM) Bet to win 1 Unit

Week 17 NFL Betting Picks - Total

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday 1/1, 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 42/42.5

I'm not sure how Kliff Kingsbury keeps his job after this disaster season for Arizona. Colt McCoy is drawing the start this week. In his four games this year, they've averaged six fewer points and he gets sacked 9% of the time. Naturally, they rely rather heavily on the run game without Kyler Murray, but overall this offense has underperformed all season. Defensively, they've been equally as bad, allowing 26.1 ppg and 23.3 ppg over the L3. They struggle against the run and are in the bottom 10 in sacks with just 31.

Things in Atlanta have soured heavily over the last few weeks. They're trying out Desmond Ridder at quarterback, but the rookie experiment has been a failure. He has yet to throw a touchdown, but has taken care of the football with no turnovers. Ridder has running ability, but instead the team has looked to Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson, who have piled up 282 yards and two touchdowns over the rookie's two starts. Defensively, they allow 23.3 ppg, have just 19 sacks this season, and have just one takeaway since Week 12.

Given Atlanta's expected run-heavy game plan and Arizona's poor run defense, I think we know how that part of the game will play out. We haven't seen success from the 36-year-old McCoy and honestly don't expect to see much change with them, well out of the playoff picture. This total was at 39.5 because we weren't sure if Trace McSorley would be starting, but I don't see why McCoy being the guy allows this total to jump to 42/42.5. Give me the under.

Pick: Under 42.5 (-110, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit

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