RADIO
What goes up, must come down. After a nice little 5-0 stretch, I lost some of that momentum with an 0-3 card in Week 14. Baltimore had 13 points in the first half then were able to cruise against an abysmal Steelers team, needing only 16 points to win. Minnesota looked horrible against Detroit and the Carolina/Seattle under just wasn't a good look on my end. However, we're still slightly positive on the season and now we near the playoffs.
I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
- 2022 Record: 19-17, +1.2 units
- Spread: 7-4, +2.35 units
- Total/Team Total: 7-11, -4.95 units
- Moneyline: 4-2, +2.5 units
- Props: 0-0
- Parlays/Teasers: 1-0, +1.3 units
Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Week 15 NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Dallas Cowboys (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday 12/18, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 48
Woof, was the Week 14 win a rough one for Dallas. Losing for a portion of the game wasn't in the plans but they pulled it out. Dak Prescott threw two interceptions and their pair of running backs, Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard barely eclipsed 100 yards combined, although both scored. The run-game success is vital to Dallas' progress toward playoffs, but Prescott needs to be better, plain and simple. Their top-ranked defense should be able to cause a lot of pressure on Jacksonville, which will likely cause mistakes.
It's been a roller coaster three weeks for the Jags, following their bye week. A tight win over Baltimore, a blowout loss to Detroit, and then a two-score victory over Tennessee. Trevor Lawrence was expected to be banged up heading into Week 14 but 368 yards and three touchdowns proved otherwise. The run game was non-existent, but it's struggled all season. Defensively, Jacksonville has a tall task defending this Dallas offense, especially the passing game, so their game plan should start by slowing down the run.
Dallas is coming off a game that they should've handled easily, whereas, Jacksonville is coming off one of their biggest wins of the season. I expect some flip-flopping this week. Dallas has the advantage in almost every way, but especially in the pass rush. They're second in the NFL with 48 sacks, which means Lawrence won't be comfortable and thus gives Dallas a chance to add to their 23 takeaways this season.
Pick: Dallas -4 (-110, BetMGM) Bet to win 1 Unit
Week 15 NFL Betting Picks - Spread
Detroit Lions at New York Jets (-1.5)
Sunday 12/18, 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 44.5
There might not be a more fun team to watch than the Lions right now. Winners of five of the last six, they're fighting for a playoff spot. The offense has been fantastic of late, averaging 29.3 ppg. However, Jared Goff has to step away from home this week and the home/road splits since joining Detroit are glaring. Jamaal Williams and D'Andre Swift split the backfield which gives the offense a nice dynamic, but I think most are expecting this overall consistency to come to an end soon.
It's Week 15 and the Jets are fourth in the AFC East but fighting for a playoff spot. What a weird thing to say. Mike White isn't an attractive option at quarterback but he's a gamer and gives the team a chance to win weekly. In the three games he's started, the offense has averaged almost six yards per play but has scored anywhere from 12 to 31 points. Consistency is the key issue here, and it will be interesting to see if that can happen, under White, in a playoff push.
UPDATE: White won't be playing on Sunday after the team doctors didn't clear him. I was operating off of news that Zach Wilson was being moved to second string, cementing White would be playing. This changes things a bit, as the line has now shifted to Detroit being 1.5-point favorites. My handicap was based on the Jets defense and will stay based on the Jets defense. No, I don't trust Wilson, but there is a chance for some upside in a "revenge game" of sorts. I certainly understand wanting to stay away now.
The Jets' defense is one of the best in the NFL this season. They're Top 10 against the rush and the pass, allowing an NFL-best 4.8 ypp. One thing they'll look to improve is their takeaway rate of late, as they have just one takeaway in the L4 games, but against Goff on the road, that will be key for this defense.
I think this is going to wind up being an ugly game. The under seems to be the popular play here as the total has dropped from 47.5 down to 44.5. However, I think the Jets' defensive advantage plays a key role in this one, allowing the offense to play more smart, sound football and come away with a win, and cover, at home.
Pick: New York Jets -1.5 (-110, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
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