RADIO
A nice little 3-0 record in Week 13 puts me at 5-0 in the last two weeks and has pleasantly placed my record in the green for the season. Detroit smoked Jacksonville, while Minnesota held off a Jets comeback to win by five. Cleveland and Houston under was cruising the entire game and while the fourth quarter made me sweat a bit, the under still cleared by 5.5 points. As this season continues to get weirder and weirder, let's continue to carry this progress forward and make more money.
I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
- 2022 Record: 19-14, +4.34 units
- Spread: 7-4, +2.35 units
- Total/Team Total: 7-9, -2.81 units
- Moneyline: 4-1, +3.5 units
- Props: 0-0
- Parlays/Teasers: 1-0, +1.3 units
Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. It's not only a goal to have a better season, but I'm looking for more engagement on Twitter this season, so feel free to hit me up! Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Week 14 NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-1.5)
Sunday 12/11, 1:00pm PM EST | O/U: 51.5
Beating the Jets 27-22 wasn't the prettiest outcome for Minnesota, but they're 10-2 with their eyes on a first-round bye. Kirk Cousins continues to succeed in the 1 pm slate but has also had his fair share of success on the road the last two seasons. Dalvin Cook is still considered the horse of the offense, but it seems that a balance between run and pass has served Minnesota best this season. Although over their L3, things haven't been as efficient, averaging just 4.5 yards per play.
The Lions are fresh off their most points in a victory this season after downing Jacksonville 40-14. Jared Goff threw for 340 yards with two touchdowns and was supported by a serviceable backfield combo of D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams. Things haven't been this good in Detroit since 2017 when Matthew Stafford was in town. Defensively, there's not much to talk about here as their Week 13 performance against the Jaguars is likely a huge outlier. They still allow 27 ppg, the most in the NFL.
This spread has swung two points to favor Detroit now. I know Goff's home splits are very strong and they're fresh off a dominating outing, but are we really just discounting the talent comparison that clearly favors Minnesota (at least offensively)? I'm not buying it, but I am buying the Vikings.
Pick: Minnesota ML (+108, Fanduel) Bet 1 Unit
Week 14 NFL Betting Picks - Team Total
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2)
Sunday 12/11, 1:00 PM EST | O/U: 36.5
Tyler Huntley is not Lamar Jackson. These are facts. But he is a quarterback who is capable of making plays and keeping the game plan consistent for the Baltimore offense. The receiving corps is a mess outside of Mark Andrews but what else is new? However, there is a chance J.K. Dobbins (knee) makes his return to the lineup, which could muddy the waters more in this crowded backfield, but he is the guy they'll want to get going before playoffs roll around.
Pittsburgh's defense has had to step up big time this year for the rather frequent ineptitude of their offense. However, they have shown their own flaws as well, especially giving up big plays, allowing an average of 5.7 ypp. While I'd be willing to put money that they'll pick up at least one takeaway, this defense isn't as good as it should be with three of the best defensive players in football on their side.
I'm not crazy about Huntley but I do love his dual-threat ability against this Steeler defense that will generate pressure and force him to run. Also add in the most electric player on the field, Justin Tucker, who has averaged 2.5 field goals per game against the Steelers over his career. All these considered, I'm staying away from the full game, but think the Ravens hit their number.
Pick: Baltimore Team Total Over 17.5 (-104, Fanduel) Bet to win 1 Unit
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Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks (-4)
Sunday 12/11, 4:25 PM EST | O/U: 44.5
The Panthers have been a dumpster fire all season. However, Week 13 was kind to them in a 23-10 win over Denver. Sam Darnold was eased back into action and performed well, while D'Onta Foreman and Chuba Hubbard shouldered a heavy load on the ground. If Darnold continues to favor D.J. Moore and the ground game keeps consistent, the Panthers may be able to get to 6-7 wins. Defensively, they generate some takeaways and haven't allowed more than 15 points in the L3.
Seattle took down the Rams in Week 13, but in that their star rookie running back, Kenneth Walker (ankle), went down. Geno Smith has thrived as the starter, establishing a strong connection with both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The offense has averaged 6.1 ypp over their L3 but at home, things slow down to just 5.2 ypp this season. It'll be interesting to see how the offense reacts if Walker can't go (hasn't practiced this week).
Carolina is one of the least trustworthy teams in the NFL. I think Darnold stinks and their running game won't be consistent every week. Meanwhile, I don't think Walker will go for Seattle which will hurt Smith and the offense when they already aren't as efficient at home. We can't forget that both sides average almost 1.5 turnovers per game, which is a blessing when targeting an under.
Pick: Under 44.5 (-110, BetMGM) Bet to win 1 Unit
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