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Thunder Dan Palyo gives his picks against the spread, over/under, and on the moneyline. These are the best NFL bets for the games on Thanksgiving (Thursday) and Black Friday (11/24).
Turkey Day is almost here and while I am always ready for some delicious food and reverie with family and friends, let's make no mistake about it - this is a FOOTBALL holiday in America, right?
I can remember watching Dallas and Detroit on Thanksgiving regardless of how good or bad they were back in the '80s and '90s. And then they added the night game, too, which meant something to watch after all the food was consumed and guests had departed.
And now the NFL has added the first-ever Black Friday game, too, as the Dolphins and Jets will square off on Friday afternoon. So I thought I would offer some betting angles for each game on Thursday and Friday and I am going to include my favorite prop bet for each game as well, why not?
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Thanksgiving NFL Betting Picks - Moneyline
There are no individual games where a ML bet is appropriate on Thursday or Friday. In fact, every favorite is favored by at least a touchdown with the Niners being the best odds for a winner at -340.
You can parlay all four favorites to win and end up at +128 odds on DraftKings, and I would be very surprised if we saw any upsets in any of these four games.
Thanksgiving NFL Betting Picks - Against the Spread
Green Bay Packers (+7.5) @ Detroit Lions
Thursday, 12:30 pm | O/U: 47
The Packers head to Detroit for the second matchup between these division rivals this season. The Lions won the first meeting 34-20 in Green Bay back in late September behind three David Montgomery touchdowns and a stifling defense that limited the Packers to just 3 first-half points.
The Packers have been a tough team to figure out this season. They clearly have talent on both sides of the ball, but they have struggled at times both offensively and defensively, and have not really been able to get both going at the same time too often.
But Green Bay has won two of their last three games, including a big win over the Chargers last week. Jordan Love is coming along and making plays down the field. And while I think they are likely overmatched in this game, let's not act like Detroit has been stomping teams recently.
The Lions needed a big comeback late to beat the Bears last week and two weeks ago against the Chargers. I think the Pack can hang here and keep this one within one possession. We are getting the extra half-point hook in our favor and I'm taking it.
Pick: Packers +7.5 (-112), Bet 1.12 units to win 1 unit
Favorite Prop: Amon-Ra St. Brown under 80.5 receiving yards (-110)
San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, 8:20 pm | O/U: 44
I will keep this one simple, the 49ers are a superior team on both sides of the ball this season when compared to Seattle. The Niners have the #1 ranked offense (DVOA) in the NFL and the 8th-ranked defense. The Seahawks are banged up with Geno Smith nursing an injury and Kenneth Walker III likely out for this game, too.
Just blessing the timeline with this Brock Purdy DOT… pic.twitter.com/wPNyLiK3Cm
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) November 21, 2023
The Niners are only 5-5 ATS this year but are still +5.5 in point differential ATS, which is the seventh-best in the league. They are healthy and firing on all cylinders right now as they have dispatched the Jaguars and Buccaneers with ease after their bye week. I see them winning by two scores here as I just don't see how Seattle's defense can stop the well-oiled machine that is the Niners' offense right now.
Pick: 49ers -7 (-112), Bet 1.12 Units to win 1. Unit
Favorite Prop: Zach Charbonnet over 19.5 receiving yards (-115)
Thanksgiving NFL Betting Picks - Over/Under
Washington Commanders (+12.5) @ Dallas Cowboys
Thursday, 4:30 PM | O/U:49
The Cowboys' offense right now is stuck in full throttle right now. Last week they were slowed down for just one half against Carolina, but still finished with 33 points in a blowout win. They have now scored 148 points over their last four games and get to feast on one of the worst defenses in football with Washington coming to town for Turkey Day.
I see Dallas going down the field at will in the first half and building a big lead. And in the second half, I think we see Washington put up some garbage time points to keep pushing this game total up. Dallas loves to run the score up, especially in a big home game and against a division rival, so they're not likely to take their foot off the gas either.
The trends back the over here, too, as Washington and Dallas are both hitting the over more often than the under (6-5 each) and Washington has a massive +7.9 o/u point differential.
Pick: OVER 49 (-108), Bet 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Favorite Prop: CeeDee Lamb over 89.5 yards receiving
Miami Dolphins (-10) @ New York Jets
Friday, 3:00 PM | O/U:41
I am sure the schedule-makers thought that we would be getting the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets here in a big divisional game with playoff implications. They probably didn't anticipate that the Jets would be on their third quarterback this season as Zach Wilson hits the bench for Tim Boyle.
This game could be a snoozer in terms of being close as the Dolphins are heavy favorites. But the Jets usually find a way to make it interesting with the defense they bring to the table each week. Could Tim Boyle be an upgrade over Wilson at QB? Maybe, but this offensive line is still bad and they continue to struggle to run the football despite having a talented young back in Breece Hall.
New #Jets starting QB Tim Boyle displayed plenty of swag when talking to @Connor_J_Hughes:
‘You gotta feel like you’re dangerous out there. You can’t go into a play or series thinking with any doubt. Confidence is critical’
When pressed further about his ‘dangerous’ comment,… pic.twitter.com/TFPKKLZ0o4
— Paul Andrew Esden Jr (@BoyGreen25) November 22, 2023
The Dolphins offense is darn good, but they have regressed back to somewhat normal levels after their record-setting start to the year in the first month. Miami has scored just 34 points over the last two weeks and let the Raiders hang around last week. I think the Jets can slow them down enough to keep them in the 20s here and I have no confidence in the Jets scoring more than...10 points.
I am going to back the under here as Miami's defense is underrated and could shut down this terrible Jets offense. This game feels like a boring blowout with the Dolphins winning 24-3.
Pick: UNDER 41 (-108), Bet 1.08 units to win 1 unit
Favorite Prop: Jaylen Waddle over 4.5 receptions (-125)
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