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Steve Janik's top NFL betting picks and best bets for the Divisional Round of the 2022-23 NFL playoffs. His free pick targets the over.
We dropped out one play during Wild Card Weekend, as the Bills and Dolphins wound up in a dog fight that few expected. It was odd to see the Bills get carved up by Skylar Thompson, but that was about on par with the 2022-23 NFL season. There are some exciting games this weekend, but as we snake through the playoffs, finding value will become harder and harder. Either way, lets make some fun of it!
I have always and will always put the disclaimer of **I'm not a professional.** I do this for fun, use my free time to research my favorite plays, and give a little of my insight into why I'm doing a particular play. My goal is to provide you with information that can help you make informed bets, whether you agree or disagree with me.
- 2022 Record: 24-21, +2.2 units
- Spread: 7-6, +0.15 units
- Total/Team Total: 11-13, -3.15 units
- Moneyline: 4-2, +2.5 units
- Props: 0-0
- Parlays/Teasers: 2-0, +2.7 units
Be sure to follow me on the Twitter machine @stevejanik6 and on Action Network, where I'll have all of my bets this season. Now down to the nitty-gritty – please remember this is all for entertainment. With that, I hope you enjoy it, best of luck, and please bet responsibly!
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Divisional Round NFL Betting Picks - Total
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
Saturday 1/21, 8:15pm PM EST | O/U: 48
The Giants really showed out in the Wild Card round. Daniel Jones had what many in the college game would call a "Heisman moment" by throwing and rushing for almost 400 combined yards, including two passing touchdowns. Saquon Barkley had a solid game, scoring two rushing touchdowns and adding over 100 all-purpose yards. The Giants will need him more than ever this week, facing a stout Eagles defense, though their run defense can be suspect at times.
Defensively, New York will need to have their best performance of the season to stave off this multi-faceted Eagles offense. The Giants have given up 48 and 22 points to the eagles this season. They allowed 5.7 yards per play this season and 22 first downs per game, which means opposing teams have not had issues moving the ball against them.
The big question heading into the weekend is whether Jalen Hurts (shoulder) is going to be full strength. He went 20 for 35 with an interception in Week 18 against these Giants, but now this game matters so we should see him take it back to his mid-season form. Expect him to be targeting A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert frequently. Of course with Hurts' running ability, it's often tough to know what to expect out of Miles Sanders, but expect him to have a role as well after scoring 11 times this season.
The Eagles defense is tops against the pass, but will be without cornerback Avonte Maddox. However, Darius Slay and company will be there to pick up the slack. Against the run, things aren't as strong for Philly, allowing 4.6 ypc this year and will have their hands full against Barkley.
I actually grabbed the opening line over at 45.5 and it's now jumped to 48, but I'm still willing to target this number. Philly obviously has no issues putting points on the board (again, granted Hurts is healthy). But I'm actually relatively comfortable trusting Jones and the Giants offense again. I think New York can keep this within the spread which tells me this will be a high-scoring game.
Pick: Over 48 (-110, BetMGM) Bet to win 1 Unit
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