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Dave Ventresca details newly signed free agents who carry bust potential for fantasy football and explains why you should avoid drafting them in 2024.
NFL free agency is starting to wind down. Things felt completely out of control this year (in a good way) and left us on the edge of our seats. We saw some major player movement, and there have been times when a player’s fantasy football production has improved after a team change. Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are recent examples of free agents who improved their production with new teams.
While it’s fun to think about all the amazing accomplishments our favorite players can achieve in a new setting, we do need to take some time to evaluate whether a player’s outlook has actually improved with their new team. A signing that seems like a home run can quickly turn into the next Kenny Golladay or Le'Veon Bell once the season begins.
Make sure you keep up to date with all your fantasy football needs by following RotoBaller on X and checking out RotoBaller.com. Today, we’re going to look at newly signed free agents who carry fantasy football bust potential heading into the 2024 season.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
Last year, fantasy gamers were hoping Ridley could emerge as a true WR1 for their teams. Things didn’t quite go to plan. Ridley only finished 28th in PPR points per game. He was maddeningly inconsistent and gave fantasy owners headaches all season. The Titans didn’t seem to mind Ridley’s inconsistencies as much as fantasy players and handed him a four-year, $92 million contract.
Despite his issues, Ridley still managed to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards and at times still looked like a quality separator.
CALVIN RIDLEY FIRST TOUCHDOWN SINCE WEEK 4 pic.twitter.com/FPlrCK2BZS
— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) November 19, 2023
One area Ridley struggled with in 2023 was handling press coverage.
Calvin Ridley's 2018 to 2021 average success rate vs. press coverage in #ReceptionPerception: 76.7%
Calvin Ridley 2023 in-season RP charting data: 64%
A lot going off course with this offense, but this has been part of the issue. https://t.co/xeJ6WjuyTd
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) November 13, 2023
Ridley will have to be better in this area to improve upon last year’s WR18 finish.
We also need to discuss the elephant in the room. Can quarterback Will Levis support Ridley as a viable fantasy receiver? Levis had an up-and-down rookie year. Among quarterbacks with 100 dropbacks, he finished just 42nd in Adjusted Completion Percentage, per Fantasy Points Data Suite. Levis did have some bright moments, but his tape is littered with errant throws and questionable decisions.
Will Levis Over 0.5 INT (-150) was the MOST BET player prop of the night! ✅
Who just cashed on the final play 😏pic.twitter.com/n4ZOHGHlsn
— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) November 3, 2023
If Levis does not progress or Ridley continues to struggle with press coverage, Ridley could be an even bigger disappointment in 2024.
D'Andre Swift, RB, Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears began their offseason by signing Swift to a three-year, $24 million contract. 2023 was a career year for Swift. He accumulated over 1,200 scrimmage yards and eclipsed the 1,000-rushing yard mark for the first time in his career.
D’ANDRE SWIFT TOUCHDOWN
pic.twitter.com/iCIwgD4UX8— Barstool Philly (@BarstoolPhilly) December 26, 2023
While Swift’s surface-level stats look good, the underlying metrics paint a different picture. Swift finished only 40th out of 49 running backs in Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expectation (RYOE). Among running backs with at least 65 carries, Swift finished 36th in Pro Football Focus’s (PFF) signature Elusive Rating and only ranked 39th in PFF’s rushing grade.
Looking at this data, it’s unclear that Swift is even the best running back currently on the Bears roster. Fellow RB Khalil Herbert graded higher than Swift in every one of the above metrics. Herbert finished 10th in PFF’s Elusive Rating, 20th in Next Gen Stats RYOE, and was PFF’s 15th-highest-graded rusher. It’s not unreasonable to suggest he could eventually emerge as the preferred back over Swift.
There is precedent for a team turning away from a back after signing him to a big contract. Just last year, we saw the Carolina Panthers bench starter Miles Sanders in favor of Chuba Hubbard after they inked Sanders to a four-year, $25.4 million deal.
If Swift struggles or injuries plague him, don’t be surprised if Herbert or someone else can wrestle the starting job away.
Austin Ekeler, RB, Washington Commanders
Finishing as the PPR RB26, Ekeler was one of the biggest fantasy football busts last year. A consistent top-three pick in drafts, Ekeler had his lowest yardage and touchdown totals since 2020. He also had a career-low 3.5 yards per carry. The advanced metrics don’t look much better.
Ekeler finished just 36th in Next Gen Stats RYOE. Among backs with at least 50 carries, Ekeler finished 63rd out of 68 eligible backs in Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF/ATT). It’s clear he is on the back nine of his career.
The Washington Commanders are hoping Ekeler can turn things around as they signed him to a two-year, $8.4 million deal. He figures to be part of a committee with incumbent starter Brian Robinson Jr.
Ekeler still carries value in PPR leagues as he’s likely to be used in a pass-catching role. The main problem with Ekeler, though, is that it appears he has started to hit the dreaded age cliff. This can be a hard truth for gamers to accept. Especially for a player that many fantasy managers hold near and dear to their hearts. Maybe Ekeler can bounce back. We’ve seen this happen before with players who appeared to be finished.
However, betting on a soon-to-be 29-year-old running back whose skills appear to be declining is usually a losing proposition in fantasy football.
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