Midwest Region: March Madness Bracket Predictions and Picks

March 14, 2022

NCAA Tournament bracket picks and team predictions for the Midwest Region. Read Seth's March Madness picks, sleepers and busts including teams to target and avoid.

March Madness is officially here, so let's fill out some winning brackets! RotoBaller will be bringing you a full breakdown on each tournament region, including some potential sleepers and busts. Today we'll be taking a look at the Midwest Region and my bracket picks.

I'm here to tell you some teams that I believe in to help you make the right tournament bracket decisions. Below I analyze the top four seeds, a potential bust, and a potential Final Four candidate. Hopefully, my college basketball predictions can help you win your March Madness pools. I really like to use Ken Pomeroy's advanced analytics to help determine a champion. Since 2002, each team to win the title except for one was ranked top-20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency. I'll be putting those numbers in parentheses after each breakdown of the top-four seeds. Now let's get to it.

Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts and guides on how to fill out your bracket including other predictions for the East, South, and West regions.

Midwest Region Top Four Seeds 

Top four seeds: No. 1 Kansas | N0. 2 Auburn | No. 3 Wisconsin | No. 4 Providence 

Kansas has a large gap in its raw efficiency margin compared to its adjusted. They don't have that star power like in the past. However, that shouldn't be an issue this year with the easy draw the Jayhawks have. Ken Pom: #6 offense, #29 defense)

Auburn will get no love after their early exit in the SEC Tournament, but they were so good all year. Besides that SEC Quarterfinal loss to Texas A&M, they hadn't been blown out. They're led by Jabari Smith Jr. who could very well be the top pick in the NBA Draft. But their lack of upperclassmen makes me wary. A matchup against USC in the Second Round could pose major problems (Ken Pom: #24 offense, #8 defense)

Wisconsin is getting tons of love and seems to be a Final Four sleeper. Do you know what that means? Early exit. This team doesn't pass the eyeball test or advanced metrics (Ken Pom: #49 offense, #38 defense)

Providence had a magical year, but they won a lot of 50/50 games. They weren't as dominant as their record was and Vegas knows it as they're only a 2.5 point favorite against South Dakota State in the opening round (Ken Pom: #31 offense, #79 defense)

Most Intriguing First Round Matchups

No. 3 Wisconsin vs. No. 14 Colgate

The Badgers are ranked 256th in field goal percentage while Colgate is 26th. Wisconsin is a 9.5 point favorite, everyone will be picking them in this game and to go really deep in the tournament. The Big 10 is overrated and I'll be shorting the entire conference.

No. 4 Providence vs. No. 13 South Dakota State

This line is only 2.5. South Dakota State is one of the hottest teams in the country and hasn't lost since Dec. 15. The Jackrabbits are second in the nation in field goal percentage while Providence ranks 204th. The Friars will have the advantage though with this game being played in Buffalo.

Busts of the Region

Wisconsin and Iowa. I have no faith in the Big 10. A lot of people are already taking these two teams to go far, so I'll go contrarian. Wisconsin's advanced metrics are not good enough to make a deep and Iowa doesn't play defense. Iowa takes on Richmond in the opening round and no one will give the Spiders a chance. If you take the Hawkeyes in the opening, have fun watching them trying to get a late stop.

Final Four Pick

Auburn. Why is this team getting no love? So a quarterfinal loss in the SEC Tournament is going to make people avoid this team? I don't get it. They've been rock solid all year long. They can get a bucket whenever they need, play very good defense.

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