X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

More Later-Round Starting Pitchers - Targets and Avoids

Analysis of another five fantasy baseball starting pitchers being drafted in the later rounds. Read about undervalued SPs and potential sleepers to target late.

Once you reach the later rounds of drafts, you start thinking about upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. These are the rounds to take risks on more unknown commodities like prospects, forgotten-about veterans, players returning from injuries or players that have previously showed promise but haven't put it all together yet. Knowing about the deeper player pool can help you be more flexible throughout the draft, especially if you can identify someone you like and plan your earlier picks around that.

Last week we looked at five pitchers to target late. Today we are looking at even more late-round starting pitchers who need to be considered. Do we think they are draft targets, or players to avoid? Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.

Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2019 Draft Guide. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 400+ of our 2019 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2019 Draft Guide.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Jesus Luzardo - SP, Oakland Athletics

Oakland Athletics pitching prospect Jesus Luzardo’s supersonic rise through the minors got off to a slow start in 2016 when he had to have Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2017 to earn a 1.66 ERA across 43 innings with a 10.0 K/9. Luzardo followed it up with an excellent 2018 with a 2.88 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 109 innings across three levels, High-A, Double- and Triple-A. If that wasn't impressive enough, he accomplished all of this as a 20-year-old.

His 2018 numbers include 16 innings at Triple-A where he had a 7.31 ERA that was over-inflated by a .469 BABIP. As part of the TJ recovery process, Luzardo was pulled late in the season to limit his innings. With three plus pitches, Luzardo is the type of arm that can become the ace of an A’s staff that doesn’t have a solid core group.

Therefore, Luzardo should be given an opportunity at mid-season, at the latest, to come up and produce, assuming he starts 2019 similar to his overall 2018 performance. Luzardo is already a hot commodity in early drafts with an ADP of 251. Even though he is RotoBaller’s 79th starting pitcher, the southpaw could easily outperform his draft value.

--Ellis Canady - RotoBaller

 

Julio Urias - SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodger pitcher Julio Urias was once a top pitching prospect, but a shoulder surgery slowed his progression in 2017. Before his season-ending surgery, he displayed the promise in 2016, pitching to a 3.69 ERA with 84 strikeouts in 77 innings.

Urias missed most of the 2018 season, but he returned to the mound in September and again demonstrated the skills that once made him a top prospect, especially with a velocity (93) that has returned to pre-surgery levels. He pitched four innings out of the bullpen, striking out seven batters and allowing one hit. Urias’ performance in the highly stressful postseason situations was even more impressive, considering he is only 22 years old.

In 2019, Urias will likely start in the bullpen but regardless of his role, a 20.7% swinging strike rate will be very productive for fantasy rosters. There is a natural pathway to a starting job as most of the Dodgers rotation is either injury prone or well past their prime. Rotoballer ranks Urias as the 78th starting pitcher, and he currently has an ADP of 276, so he can be acquired late in drafts. The smarter choice is to obtain his services near the 21st round.

--Ellis Canady - RotoBaller

 

Reynaldo Lopez - SP, Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez emerged in 2018 to lead his team in ERA (3.91) and finish second in innings pitched (188 2/3) and strikeouts (151). From July through season’s end, Lopez improved significantly in strikeouts while reducing walks, culminating in a stellar 1.09 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 in September. With the strong finish, Lopez is a legitimate fantasy candidate with an ADP of 251.

While no one is drafting him as a frontline starter, he’s firmly in sleeper territory. Just 25 years old, Lopez is currently penciled in as the White Sox third starter. Health permitting, he should once again clear 30 starts. If Lopez can develop usable peripheral pitches to complement a 96 MPH heater, the strikeouts should tick up from last year’s 7.2 K/9. Contrarily, his wildness (3.6 BB/9) and alarming 5.22 xFIP suggest he has a long way to go before he earns blind trust in fantasy circles.

At his current price, Lopez is a fine late-round grab for depth and upside. If he carries over his second-half momentum from 2018, the investment should immediately pay off. The risk of failure at the end of drafts is marginal, the potential for Lopez to make material strides comes at a very reasonable cost.

--Andrew Le - RotoBaller

 

Trevor Williams - SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

On the surface, Trevor Williams had a good fantasy season in 2018. He posted a 3.11 ERA and 14 wins in his first full season as a starter for Pittsburgh. Beneath the surface, however, things look a little murky. His strikeout rate was a meager 6.64 K/9, the fifth-lowest K/9 among qualified pitchers and the second-lowest among qualified pitchers with an ERA below 4.00. His 3.86 FIP would ostensibly back up his 3.11 ERA, at least to some extent, but even that metric seems inflated thanks to his bloated 4.68 SIERA and awful 2.29 K/BB ratio.

Williams does have one standout skill, something he has consistently excelled at throughout his professional career from A-ball to the majors, and that is home run suppression. He allowed just 0.79 HR/9 last season, which was tied for eighth-best among qualified pitchers. Williams does this by limiting hard contact with an 85.6 MPH average exit velocity against and a 30.6% hard-hit rate against. This is a repeatable skill and should be helped by the fact that Williams calls PNC Park home.

His fastball tops out around 91 MPH, and he would be lucky to crack 7.0 K/9, but Williams could be a decent source of ERA, WHIP, and wins once again in 2019. There isn’t much room for growth in his profile, and there is little margin for error in his contact-management pitching style, which makes his current ADP of 238 seem a little rich given the lack of upside.

--Elliott Baas - RotoBaller

 

Collin McHugh - SP, Houston Astros

After missing the majority of the 2017 season with an elbow injury, Collin McHugh returned to health in 2018, but as a member of the Houston Astros bullpen. He found tremendous success in his new role generating 94 strikeouts across 72.1 innings pitched with a 1.99 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. A large part of his success last season was attributed to his newly developed slider, which kept opponents to a .105 AVG with no extra-base hits.

The advancement of this breaking-pitch also helped McHugh become dominant against right-handers. Among pitchers with at least a 40 IP sample, his .196 OBP was the best mark in baseball. The effectiveness against righties should continue in 2019, and with Lance McCullers Jr. out for the year and the departures of Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel, McHugh is set to return to the starting rotation. There is, however, a concern here for innings pitched as he only has just over 135 IP in his last two seasons combined. The Astros could also add an arm at some point, which would send McHugh back to the pen.

His 2018 numbers as a reliever will not directly translate as a starter but expect McHugh to provide roughly a strikeout per inning and an ERA in the mid-three range with a higher ceiling if moved back to the bullpen. McHugh is an excellent option to fill out your fantasy pitching staff at his 298 ADP, but be sure to have depth at the position with a potential workload limit.

--Riley Mrack - RotoBaller

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contract Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Brock Bowers

Officially Questionable for Monday Night
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Players Roster Kyle Busch At Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. too Risky to Consider Rostering At Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Consistent Enough to Advance in Playoffs, but Probably Won't Factor for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12 but Might Be Able to Do It
Ross Chastain

Has Never Led at Bristol, but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
Ryan Preece

Seems Slower on Concrete Than on Asphalt
NASCAR

Legacy Motor Club's Short Track Speed Will Likely Hold John H. Nemechek Back
Erik Jones

Definitely Faster This Year, but Short Tracks Still a Liability
Daniel Suarez

Despite Poor Qualifying Run, Daniel Suarez Might Not Be a Great Choice for Place Differential Points
Noah Gragson

Unlikely to Be Fast at Bristol but Still Might Be Worth Considering for DFS
Tarik Skubal

Avoids Serious Injury, Expected to Make Next Start
Xavier Worthy

Officially Ruled Out for Week 2
Austin Ekeler

Suffers Torn Achilles
Quinshon Judkins

Expected to Play Against Ravens
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
Kyle Larson

Can Kyle Larson Dominate at Bristol Again?
Denny Hamlin

One of the Best at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

All Eyes on Ryan Blaney at Bristol
Chase Briscoe

Whiffs in Qualifying, Will Start 31st in Bristol Night Race
Ty Gibbs

Could Contend at Bristol
Tanner Bibee

Fans 10 in Two-Hit Shutout
Zach Neto

Dealing With Wrist Soreness
Masyn Winn

Shut Down for Rest of Season
Tarik Skubal

to Undergo Imaging on Saturday
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

RapSheet: Jacory Croskey-Merritt Expected to Be Lead Back Moving Forward
Tyler Soderstrom

Scratched on Friday With Groin Tightness
Tarik Skubal

Exits with Side Tightness
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
Ketel Marte

Scratched From Friday's Lineup
Brock Purdy

Officially Ruled Out Against Saints
Jauan Jennings

Given Questionable Tag for Week 2
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Dallas Goedert

Officially Ruled Out for Week 2
Xavier Worthy

Listed as Doubtful to Play in Week 2
Jayden Reed

Hopes to Return in November Following Surgery
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Kyle Tucker

"Unlikely" to Return When Eligible on Tuesday
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Ketel Marte

Expected to Return on Friday
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Quinshon Judkins

Questionable to Make NFL Debut in Week 2
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Alexander Hernandez

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Quang Le

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Card Opener
Santiago Luna

Set For His Debut At Noche UFC 3
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Jacory Croskey-Merritt

Sees Little Usage in Week 2, Outlook Still Trending Upwards?
Deebo Samuel Sr.

Leads Commanders in Catches, Scores Touchdown Again
Tucker Kraft

Posts Huge Performance on Thursday
Joe Mixon

Lack of Joe Mixon Injury Updates Sparking Concern for Fantasy Managers?
Jayden Reed

Fractures Collarbone, Headed for Injured Reserve
Austin Ekeler

Commanders Fear Austin Ekeler Tore his Achilles
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo Strikes Out 10 in Win
Aaron Judge

Matches Yankees Legend with Two-Homer Game
Austin Ekeler

Injured, Carried Off Field with Non-Contact Injury
Jayden Reed

Ruled Out with Shoulder Injury
Quinshon Judkins

Browns Insider Expects NFL to "Come Down Heavy" on a Quinshon Judkins Suspension
Jayden Reed

Questionable to Return on TNF With Shoulder Injury
Anthony Volpe

Playing Through Partially Torn Labrum in his Shoulder
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
Charles Oliveira

Not Eyeing Retirement
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Questionable to Make Debut Against Georgia
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Will Smith

Scratched With Hand Soreness on Wednesday
Ketel Marte

has Foot Contusion, Expected to Play Friday
Shohei Ohtani

Won't Pitch This Weekend
MacKenzie Gore

to Start on Thursday
Ketel Marte

Exits Early on Wednesday
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury
Anthony Rizzo

Retires
Cameron Champ

the Ultimate Wild Card at Procore
Cameron Young

Looks to Extend Momentum in Napa
Davis Thompson

Searching for a Spark at Procore
Sahith Theegala

Looking to Reignite Form at Procore
Mackenzie Hughes

Aims for Another Strong Showing at Procore
Luke Clanton

Brings Ball-Striking Upside to Napa
Seamus Power

Looking to Overcome Poor Course History at Procore
Joe Highsmith

Hoping to Find Form in Napa
Masyn Winn

Will Require Offseason Knee Surgery
Kristaps Porzingis

Reportedly Still Not Completely Healthy
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Reportedly on the Trade Block
Andre Drummond

Future in Philadelphia in Doubt
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Helps Greece Reach Semis at EuroBasket
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Posts Historic Triple-Double
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For 15 at Wyndham Championship
Bud Cauley

Finishes Tied for 33rd at BMW Championship
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied for Seventh at Tour Championship
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied for 25th at Tour Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied for 19th at Tour Championship
Keith Mitchell

Misses Cut at Wyndham Championship
Ben Griffin

Finishes Tied for 10th at Tour Championship
Patrick Cantlay

Finishes Tied for Second at Tour Championship
Gary Woodland

Could Hang Around at Procore Championship
Ranger Suárez

Ranger Suarez Strikes Out 12, Earns 12th Win on Tuesday
Karl Vilips

Ready for Napa Valley This Weekend
Taylor Montgomery

Heating Up at the Right Time
Jackson Koivun

May Be a Little Rusty at Procore Championship
Doug Ghim

Looking to Rise Up at Napa Valley
Josh Giddey

Re-Signs With Bulls for Four Years
Shakir Mukhamadullin

Joins Informal Skate
William Eklund

Skates With Sharks
Owen Power

Back at 100 Percent
Tyler Seguin

Cleared for Action
Mathew Barzal

Good to Go for Season Opener
Dustin Wolf

Signs Seven-Year Extension
NBA

Mason Jones Takes His Talents to Australia
NBA

Talen Horton-Tucker Joins Reigning EuroLeague Champions
Malcolm Brogdon

on Knicks' Radar
Andrew Wiggins

Attracting Interest From Lakers
Miami Heat

Heat Interested in Reunion With Precious Achiuwa
New York Knicks

Ben Simmons Reportedly Declined Knicks' Contract Offer
Caio Borralho

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Nassourdine Imavov

Extends Win Streak
Mauricio Ruffy

Gets Submitted
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Taps Out Mauricio Ruffy
Paul Craig

Retires After UFC Paris Loss
Modestas Bukauskas

Scores First-Round Knockout
Bolaji Oki

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
Mason Jones

Scores Comeback Win

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP