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More Later-Round Starting Pitchers - Targets and Avoids

Analysis of another five fantasy baseball starting pitchers being drafted in the later rounds. Read about undervalued SPs and potential sleepers to target late.

Once you reach the later rounds of drafts, you start thinking about upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. These are the rounds to take risks on more unknown commodities like prospects, forgotten-about veterans, players returning from injuries or players that have previously showed promise but haven't put it all together yet. Knowing about the deeper player pool can help you be more flexible throughout the draft, especially if you can identify someone you like and plan your earlier picks around that.

Last week we looked at five pitchers to target late. Today we are looking at even more late-round starting pitchers who need to be considered. Do we think they are draft targets, or players to avoid? Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant fantasy contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.

Our editors have hand-picked these specific MLB players for your draft prep enjoyment. Normally only available to Premium subscribers, the five outlooks below are meant to give you a taste of the in-depth analysis you receive with our industry-leading 2019 Draft Guide. Be sure to subscribe today and start reading all 400+ of our 2019 player outlooks, and many other premium articles and tools, available exclusively in our 2019 Draft Guide.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Jesus Luzardo - SP, Oakland Athletics

Oakland Athletics pitching prospect Jesus Luzardo’s supersonic rise through the minors got off to a slow start in 2016 when he had to have Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2017 to earn a 1.66 ERA across 43 innings with a 10.0 K/9. Luzardo followed it up with an excellent 2018 with a 2.88 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 109 innings across three levels, High-A, Double- and Triple-A. If that wasn't impressive enough, he accomplished all of this as a 20-year-old.

His 2018 numbers include 16 innings at Triple-A where he had a 7.31 ERA that was over-inflated by a .469 BABIP. As part of the TJ recovery process, Luzardo was pulled late in the season to limit his innings. With three plus pitches, Luzardo is the type of arm that can become the ace of an A’s staff that doesn’t have a solid core group.

Therefore, Luzardo should be given an opportunity at mid-season, at the latest, to come up and produce, assuming he starts 2019 similar to his overall 2018 performance. Luzardo is already a hot commodity in early drafts with an ADP of 251. Even though he is RotoBaller’s 79th starting pitcher, the southpaw could easily outperform his draft value.

--Ellis Canady - RotoBaller

 

Julio Urias - SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodger pitcher Julio Urias was once a top pitching prospect, but a shoulder surgery slowed his progression in 2017. Before his season-ending surgery, he displayed the promise in 2016, pitching to a 3.69 ERA with 84 strikeouts in 77 innings.

Urias missed most of the 2018 season, but he returned to the mound in September and again demonstrated the skills that once made him a top prospect, especially with a velocity (93) that has returned to pre-surgery levels. He pitched four innings out of the bullpen, striking out seven batters and allowing one hit. Urias’ performance in the highly stressful postseason situations was even more impressive, considering he is only 22 years old.

In 2019, Urias will likely start in the bullpen but regardless of his role, a 20.7% swinging strike rate will be very productive for fantasy rosters. There is a natural pathway to a starting job as most of the Dodgers rotation is either injury prone or well past their prime. Rotoballer ranks Urias as the 78th starting pitcher, and he currently has an ADP of 276, so he can be acquired late in drafts. The smarter choice is to obtain his services near the 21st round.

--Ellis Canady - RotoBaller

 

Reynaldo Lopez - SP, Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox starter Reynaldo Lopez emerged in 2018 to lead his team in ERA (3.91) and finish second in innings pitched (188 2/3) and strikeouts (151). From July through season’s end, Lopez improved significantly in strikeouts while reducing walks, culminating in a stellar 1.09 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 9.5 K/9 in September. With the strong finish, Lopez is a legitimate fantasy candidate with an ADP of 251.

While no one is drafting him as a frontline starter, he’s firmly in sleeper territory. Just 25 years old, Lopez is currently penciled in as the White Sox third starter. Health permitting, he should once again clear 30 starts. If Lopez can develop usable peripheral pitches to complement a 96 MPH heater, the strikeouts should tick up from last year’s 7.2 K/9. Contrarily, his wildness (3.6 BB/9) and alarming 5.22 xFIP suggest he has a long way to go before he earns blind trust in fantasy circles.

At his current price, Lopez is a fine late-round grab for depth and upside. If he carries over his second-half momentum from 2018, the investment should immediately pay off. The risk of failure at the end of drafts is marginal, the potential for Lopez to make material strides comes at a very reasonable cost.

--Andrew Le - RotoBaller

 

Trevor Williams - SP, Pittsburgh Pirates

On the surface, Trevor Williams had a good fantasy season in 2018. He posted a 3.11 ERA and 14 wins in his first full season as a starter for Pittsburgh. Beneath the surface, however, things look a little murky. His strikeout rate was a meager 6.64 K/9, the fifth-lowest K/9 among qualified pitchers and the second-lowest among qualified pitchers with an ERA below 4.00. His 3.86 FIP would ostensibly back up his 3.11 ERA, at least to some extent, but even that metric seems inflated thanks to his bloated 4.68 SIERA and awful 2.29 K/BB ratio.

Williams does have one standout skill, something he has consistently excelled at throughout his professional career from A-ball to the majors, and that is home run suppression. He allowed just 0.79 HR/9 last season, which was tied for eighth-best among qualified pitchers. Williams does this by limiting hard contact with an 85.6 MPH average exit velocity against and a 30.6% hard-hit rate against. This is a repeatable skill and should be helped by the fact that Williams calls PNC Park home.

His fastball tops out around 91 MPH, and he would be lucky to crack 7.0 K/9, but Williams could be a decent source of ERA, WHIP, and wins once again in 2019. There isn’t much room for growth in his profile, and there is little margin for error in his contact-management pitching style, which makes his current ADP of 238 seem a little rich given the lack of upside.

--Elliott Baas - RotoBaller

 

Collin McHugh - SP, Houston Astros

After missing the majority of the 2017 season with an elbow injury, Collin McHugh returned to health in 2018, but as a member of the Houston Astros bullpen. He found tremendous success in his new role generating 94 strikeouts across 72.1 innings pitched with a 1.99 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. A large part of his success last season was attributed to his newly developed slider, which kept opponents to a .105 AVG with no extra-base hits.

The advancement of this breaking-pitch also helped McHugh become dominant against right-handers. Among pitchers with at least a 40 IP sample, his .196 OBP was the best mark in baseball. The effectiveness against righties should continue in 2019, and with Lance McCullers Jr. out for the year and the departures of Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel, McHugh is set to return to the starting rotation. There is, however, a concern here for innings pitched as he only has just over 135 IP in his last two seasons combined. The Astros could also add an arm at some point, which would send McHugh back to the pen.

His 2018 numbers as a reliever will not directly translate as a starter but expect McHugh to provide roughly a strikeout per inning and an ERA in the mid-three range with a higher ceiling if moved back to the bullpen. McHugh is an excellent option to fill out your fantasy pitching staff at his 298 ADP, but be sure to have depth at the position with a potential workload limit.

--Riley Mrack - RotoBaller

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
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CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
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Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
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Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks

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