RADIO
Justin Dunbar evaluates results of RotoBaller's early 2022 mock draft for fantasy football to find the biggest fallers from last season.
The playoffs may be going on right now, but for fantasy managers, we have reached the beginning of the offseason. With that in mind, it is never too early to look ahead to 2022! Following the end of the regular season, 12 members of the RotoBaller team, including myself, teamed up to do a 12-round mock draft for the 2022 fantasy football season. You can call it a "too early" mock draft, but hey, it's never too early to look ahead to next season!
Today, we will be looking at the biggest fallers in the mock draft. Every year, there are players that underachieve expectations, leading to them rising up draft boards the following year. Meanwhile, players may also not have the opportunities to produce that they previously have had.
The trickiest part of completing this mock draft? Doing so before the start of the actual offseason. Free agency can dramatically alter the value of individual players, as can the draft; 2022 rookies also weren't included in this mock. Nevertheless, this mock draft can give us a great idea of the relative value of players at the current moment. So, who is slipping the most in fantasy football circles? Let us take a closer look!
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Complete Draft Board
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For total draft information, click here. Previous ADP via Fantasy Pros. Stats/Expected Points via Pro Football Focus
Quarterback Fallers
Since quarterbacks went later in this draft than in standard home-league drafts, there were a lot of so-called "fallers" at the position. That being said, one stands out above the rest.
Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
- Previous ADP: 55.6 (QB6), Mock Draft: 131 (QB11)
With a new offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron coming to Seattle, Russell Wilson seemed to be quite bust-proof in 2021. Sadly, no one could have predicted he would suffer a thumb injury that kept him out three weeks and then hampered his performance afterward. After coming back from his thumb injury, Wilson averaged just 6.97 yards/pass attempt, as opposed to the 9.57 yards/pass attempt he was averaging before the injury. That being said, he was the fantasy QB13 in points per game during this "cold stretch" and averaged 7.8 yards/pass attempt overall for the season. If he falls outside the top-10 quarterbacks, as he did here, he'll be a massive value. What team will he be playing for? Regardless, you can expect him to play at a higher level than he did this season.
Running Back Fallers
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
From the preseason on, where his role was uncertain, it was a roller-coaster to roster Myles Gaskin this season. After seemingly being an RB2 based on his lead back role with his receiving prowess, it all fell apart in the fantasy playoffs; after returning from the COVID-19 list, he got stuck in a three-way committee due to Duke Johnson Jr.'s emergence. We'll see what a new coaching staff in Miami means for Gaskin, but he doesn't have draft capital on his side, nor has he impressed in terms of peripheral metrics. It's likely we see him function as strictly a third-down/passing-down running back moving forward, though that still has some value in PPR formats.
Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
Although he posted three RB2 finishes to start the season, Chris Carson missed all but four games due to a neck injury in 2021, leaving his status in doubt moving forward. That being said, if he's healthy and the team lets Rashaad Penny leave in free agency, Carson is back in a similar spot he was at the start of the year. That's the difficult part about doing a mock draft this early; so much is in flux. I could see Carson rising if the right breaks go his way this offseason.
Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
After signing a brand-new contract with the Packers this past offseason, the expectation was that Aaron Jones would continue to be the clear featured running back in 2021. That was how it was trending prior to an injury that he suffered late in Week 10, which coincided with the emergence of AJ Dillon. Now, Jones is still the better fantasy running back of the two with usage in the passing game, but Dillon is going to vulture away touchdown opportunities. Consider his finish (RB14) in points per game to be his likely ceiling heading into 2022.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
In some drafts, Ezekiel Elliott was a top-three pick. Thus, it is certainly a disappointment that Elliott finished as the RB19 overall, and finished poorly down the stretch. From Weeks 10 to 17, he eclipsed 50 rushing yards just once and averaged only 3.22 yards/rush attempt during that span. Per Elliott, he was dealing with a torn PCL, which would explain the lack of efficiency. Yet, with Tony Pollard a fixture in the backfield as well, the declining efficiency, and the general trend of running backs with his previous workload, he's going to be a difficult sell next year.
Wide Receiver Fallers
Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans
Between his age (now 33) and him changing teams, there was a lot to be worried about with Julio Jones's 2021 fantasy outlook. At the same time, this is the same player that averaged 2.60 yards/route run in 2020! To be fair, prior to missing four weeks in the middle of the season due to injury, he was still averaging 2.18 yards/route run. That being said, his routes were being limited due to injury already, which is sadly likely to continue moving forward given his age. 33-year-old receivers don't often get better, and if Jones remains with the Titans, it's hard to see a bounce-back coming next year.
Allen Robinson II, Free Agent
What happened to Allen Robinson? The 28-year-old, despite dealing with the awful quarterback play, was constantly a WR1 in fantasy leagues for several seasons in a row, leaving little doubt that he'd be the same in 2021; he was drafted as the WR11, per Fantasy Pros. Instead, he averaged just 1.13 yards/route run, finishing as the WR83 overall. Now, can we finally get him to an offense with productive quarterback play? Pretty please? His landing spot will likely have a major effect on his draft position, though don't be surprised if he bounced back in a major way next season.
Kenny Golladay, New York Giants
Wide receivers changing teams is generally a clear red flag when it comes to fantasy outlooks of specific players, but after DeAndre Hopkins and Stefon Diggs debunked the myth in 2020, there was some reason to be optimistic for Kenny Golladay in 2021. The problem? He signed with the paltry Giants and was injured for most of training camp. Overall, he averaged just 1.23 yards per route/run and failed to score a SINGLE touchdown. Since he's in the same spot he was last year, there isn't any reason to expect a notable bounce back in 2022. Perhaps that can change with a new and improved coaching staff, but consider me pessimistic.
Tight End Fallers
A majority of the top tight ends were once again drafted highly in the mock draft, though these two players did see their respective stocks slip.
TE Noah Fant, Denver Broncos
- Previous ADP: 84.2 (TE8), Mock Draft: 113 (TE11)
With a run-heavy attack and several weapons to spread the ball around to, the Broncos' offense was a massive disappointment both generally and from a fantasy perspective. Now, Fant still finished as the TE12, but it wasn't the complete top-five breakout that many believed he was capable of in his third season. With a new quarterback in 2022, perhaps he finally can reach that potential and be a value pick outside the top-10.
TE Darren Waller, Las Vegas Raiders
- Previous ADP: 22.4 (TE2), Mock Draft: 41 (TE4)
There was some hope that Darren Waller would challenge Travis Kelce as the TE1 this year, which is why he was being drafted in the second round in 12-team drafts. However, that did not come to fruition. Interestingly, though, this could make Waller a buy-low candidate in 2022. Waller was the TE3 in PFF expected fantasy points and dealt with injuries last year. Fully healthy next season and with a new coaching staff in place, I'd feel comfortable drafting him as a borderline top-three tight end again.
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