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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, and DraftKings for Monday Night Football - Dolphins vs Saints showdown slate. His Week 16 MNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your holidays went great and your Week 16 has been profitable so far. I personally had a solid day yesterday, and hope to cap off my NFL week with a nice win tonight. We have a not-so-interesting matchup tonight as Tua and the Miami Dolphins (7-7) head to the Big Easy to take on the New Orleans Saints (7-7), who will give Ian Book his first career start. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on December 27th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Alvin Kamara ($18,300 DK, $16,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 184 carries, 668 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns, 55 targets, 38 receptions, 348 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns.
- Offensive Rushing DVOA: -13.6% (23rd)
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: -9.3% (18th)
I start off tonight's slate with Alvin Kamara. Kamara is (rightfully) the most expensive player on both sites, and he'll certainly be needed if New Orleans wants to get anything going with Ian Book tonight. Kamara should be able to rack up receptions as a safety blanket for Book, and with Sean Payton back on the sideline, it's hard to think he hasn't designed the offense around Kamara tonight.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Tua Tagovailoa, Ian Book
DeVante Parker ($14,100 DK, $10,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 56 targets, 34 receptions, 457 receiving yards, two touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 22.49% target rate, 16% red-zone target rate, 4 end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Paulson Adebo): 14% target per route covered, 65% catch rate, 0.28 fantasy points per route covered.
While I would prefer Waddle in this spot, Parker comes in a little bit cheaper and in a somewhat better matchup against Paulson Adebo. Parker had some road bumps this year with injuries but has been dominant when he's on the field. In seven games this year, he's drawn at least seven targets in six of seven games and has caught at least four passes in each start. With New Orleans coming into this one with the best defensive rush DVOA in the league, it's hard to think that Miami won't air it out all night. I'm expecting a big night from Parker, Waddle, Gesicki, and Miami's passing offense as a whole.
Recommendation: GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Tua Tagovailoa, Ian Book
Other Captains: Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins D/ST
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Tua Tagovailoa ($10,200 DK, $15,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 2,141 passing yards, 14 touchdowns, eight interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 5.5% (22nd)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 4.6% (14th)
Going back to what I said with DeVante Parker, New Orleans comes into this one with the best defensive rush DVOA in the league. This should open up the field for Tua to make throws. Tua has played much better of late, throwing at least two touchdowns in three of his last four games. The recent return of DeVante Parker has been huge for Tua, and I expect him and the Dolphins' passing game to keep it rolling in New Orleans tonight.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, Mike Gesicki
Marquez Callaway ($7,800 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 68 targets, 36 receptions, 555 yards, six touchdowns.
- 2021 Data: 16.83% target rate, 14% red-zone target rate, nine end zone targets.
- Individual Matchup (vs Byron Jones): 16% target per route covered, 63% catch rate, 0.24 fantasy points per route covered.
I have a tough time siding with anyone on New Orleans' offense tonight outside of Alvin Kamara, obviously due to Ian Book getting the nod for tonight's game. Regardless of whether Book is a good or even average quarterback, this will be the fourth signal-caller that the Saints will be sending out since Week 8. With that said though, Callaway has done a solid job getting open this season and is coming off of a huge game last week where he caught six of nine targets for 112 yards. I can't say he'll replicate that performance, but he is a solid tournament play to differentiate yourself from the field, and it very well could pay off if he can get open over the top and haul in a touchdown.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK, FD)
Best Correlations: Ian Book, Tua Tagovailoa
Other Flex Plays: Mike Gesicki, Mark Ingram, Myles Gaskin
NFL DFS Value Plays
Jason Sanders ($4,200 DK, $8,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 24 field goals attempted, 18 field goals made, 29/30 PAT.
With the state of the Saints' offense, you would think I'd prefer Brett Maher in this situation. My issue here is that I'm not even sure that New Orleans will even be able to move down the field. With that said though, I can see the Dolphins being able to move down the field with the Saints playing more of a bend-don't-break style of defense. This could open up the opportunity for Sanders to knock down a couple of field goals making him – you guessed it – optimal.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Tua Tagovailoa, Myles Gaskin
Dolphins D/ST ($4,400 DK)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 11 interceptions, 10 fumble recoveries, 37 sacks, three defensive touchdowns.
I've only said that the Saints will be starting rookie Ian Book a few times in this article – ha. But seriously, a team that's on QB4 for the season always creates an opportunity to take advantage of from a fantasy perspective. Not to mention, Miami's defense has been really good since the slow start to their season. They haven't allowed more than 20 points since Week 8 at Buffalo, logging at least five fantasy points per game in that span, and finishing three of those games with at least 17 fantasy points. It's a good spot for Miami's defense here, but I'm sure their ownership will reflect that.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Myles Gaskin, Tua Tagovailoa, Mike Gesicki
Other Value Plays: Brett Maher, Ty Montgomery, Nick Vannett
NFL DFS: Overall Slate Notes
This slate is.... gross. My player pool will be relatively tight in this one, filled with mostly Miami's passing game. I will have some Myles Gaskin and Duke Johnson shares in case of an absolute blowout. My only restrictions will be preventing both Gaskin and Johnson as well as Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram from appearing in the same lineup. Other than that though, there isn't much to say other than I hope this game is better than I expect it to be!
Best of luck tonight and I'll see you all in 2022!
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