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Frank Ammirante identifies 10 MLB hitters who should gain fantasy baseball value due to a shortened 60-game season. These players could be draft risers based on ADP.
Baseball is finally back! After months of waiting, it’s time to get back to fantasy baseball. This year will look much different due to the short season as a 60-game sample size is going to make for some wacky stats. While fantasy baseball will never be more unpredictable, we can gain an advantage over our opponents by refining our strategy.
In this article, we’ll take a look at 10 hitters who will benefit from the short season, using the following guiding questions to help create this list:
- Does the player have elite speed?
- Is the player older with heightened injury concerns?
- Has the player fully recovered from a previous injury due to the long lay-off?
- Will a player’s weakness be masked by the smaller sample size?
- Has the player remained on the same team?
Speed is scarce, so the elite base-stealers get a bump. Older players have a greater chance of staying healthy in 60 games as opposed to the usual 162. Some players who would have missed Opening Day in April are now fully recovered. Others who are weak in power or contact can take advantage of the smaller sample size. Finally, continuity is key. In such a tumultuous season, let’s bet on players who haven’t switched teams (unless their name is Nick Castellanos).
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Trea Turner (SS, WAS)
Trea Turner is one of the best speed threats in baseball, totaling 159 stolen bases in 2,124 career plate appearances, an average of 0.07 SB per PA, which amounts to 42 SB in 600 PA. ATC projects Turner to rack up 15 SB in 239 PA, which would be among the league leaders.
It’s more likely for a player to go on a slump with power than a drought with stolen bases, so we need to bump up Turner in our ranks. We also need to remember that Turner has only played one full season in his four-year career, including 122 games in 2019. The short season will do wonders for Turner.
Adalberto Mondesi (SS,KC)
Adalberto Mondesi is such a polarizing player - those who target him are enamored by his SB upside (0.1 SB per PA in the last two seasons), while others avoid him due to poor plate discipline (29.8 K%, 4.3 BB% in 2019). I’m on the former side - you need to target Mondesi, especially in the short season.
For one, the small sample size will help mask batting average and on-base concerns. Mondesi has also fully recovered from shoulder surgery - reports are that he looks fantastic in camp. Don’t be scared off by the plate discipline - target Mondesi for his monster upside.
Giancarlo Stanton (OF, NYY)
Giancarlo Stanton has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, playing only four full seasons in his career, including 18 games in 2019. Stanton was slated to miss the original Opening Day due to a calf injury, but he’s healthy with a chip on his shoulder to bounce back from a disappointing year.
We all know about Stanton’s power upside - 59 home runs in 2017. Now that the season is shorter, we can bet with more confidence on a healthy year for Giancarlo. Stanton might also benefit from a season with no fans, as he won’t have to deal with the pressure that comes with the Yankee uniform. Target him.
Nelson Cruz (DH, MIN)
Nelson Cruz is one of the favorites of the fantasy industry, with several writers preaching the need to target him due to his depressed value from his advanced age. I was one of those who were originally more skeptical - I don’t like to bet on players entering their age-40 season. However, the short season throws these concerns out the window for me.
I’m now willing to invest in Cruz because I’m no longer worried about him holding up since the season is only 60 games. Cruz is a player with massive power, hitting in a stacked lineup. He smashed 41 HR in 521 PA in 2019. Don't hesitate to grab him in your drafts.
Carlos Correa (SS, HOU)
Carlos Correa has fantastic upside, but he’s never been able to reach his full potential due to injuries - he’s only played one full season since 2016. Correa showed his ability in limited action last year, hitting 21 HR in only 321 PA. The short season will increase his chances of staying healthy.
We also need to consider the benefits of playing in empty stadiums for Astros players. They will no longer have to deal with fans booing them for being involved in the sign-stealing scandal. Entering his age-25 season with a chip on his shoulder, Correa needs to be bumped in your rankings.
Justin Turner (3B, LAD)
Justin Turner is another veteran who cracks this list simply because of the short season. Turner has only played 140 games once since 2014, so this is a player who benefits from the decreased workload. Even at 35 years old, Turner has shown no signs of decline, slashing .290/.372/.509 with 27 HR in 549 PA last season.
Hitting in a stacked Dodgers’ lineup, Turner should be a nice source of counting stats for your fantasy team. This is another player who I would have avoided in a full season, but I’m now targeting with confidence.
Adam Eaton (OF, WAS)
Adam Eaton is another injury-prone player who benefits from the short season. Eaton put up solid numbers in 2019, slashing .279/.365/.428 with 15 HR and 15 SB in 656 PA. He’s slated to lead off for a strong Nationals’ lineup. This is especially important in a short season because we need to target players who project for more plate appearances.
Batting leadoff with strong on-base skills, Eaton should be a great source of runs while providing some pop and speed. Eaton should be able to stay healthy to make an impact in 60 games.
Rougned Odor (2B, TEX)
Rougned Odor is another polarizing player because of his power-speed combo, but poor contact profile. Odor slashed .205/.283/.439 with 30 HR and 11 SB in 581 PA. In a short season, we could see a wide variance in batting average, which helps alleviate the biggest risk involved with drafting Odor.
If Odor can pull off a .250 BA in 60 games, he’ll be a major asset due to his power-speed profile at a premium position in 2B. This is definitely an attainable goal due to the smaller sample size. Odor is one of my favorite targets in the later rounds. Bump him up with the short season!
Luis Arraez (2B/SS, MIN)
Luis Arraez has an exceptional contact profile, slashing .334/.399/.439 in 366 PA as a 22-year old rookie. While batting average will be more volatile in a short season, I believe that this applies more for players with weaker contact profiles - those who are able to consistently put the ball in play are less likely to post a BA much lower than career norms.
The biggest reason why I’m bumping up Arraez is that his weak power will be less of a factor in this short season. Arraez hit only four home runs in 2019 - if he hits two HR in the 60-game season, that will likely only be ~20 behind the league leader, as opposed to the 40+ it would have been in a normal season. Hitting in a stacked Twins’ lineup, Arraez is a nice late-round target.
Yoenis Cespedes (OF, NYM)
Yoenis Cespedes enters the 2020 season with a massive chip on his shoulder, looking to bounce back from consecutive injury-plagued seasons. He’s also in a contract year, so he’s highly motivated to make an impact. Let’s not forget that this is a hitter who slashed .280/.354/.530 with 31 HR in 479 PA when he was last healthy.
Reports out of camp state that Cespedes looks fantastic. Remember, this is a talented hitter who is still only 34 years old - it’s not like he’s approaching his 40s yet. Don’t let his injury concerns scare you away - it’s a short season. Buy Cespedes!
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