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Welcome to the first edition of MLB hitter studs and duds for the 2023 fantasy baseball season! Be sure to also check out all of our Statcast analysis for fantasy baseball, including the weekly series by Connelly Doan about Statcast Pitcher Studs and Duds.
I'll be here on a weekly basis tracking the players whose underlying metrics are either boosting their fantasy baseball stock or hindering it. Surface results are fine and dandy but we can take a deeper dive to distinguish how sustainable a player's success is. On the flip side, we can also use advanced metrics to identify some buy-low candidates that are doing the right things but simply have not seen the results. This is especially important early in the season.
While this piece will likely evolve as the season moves along, we'll simply start by taking a look at barrel rates. In other words, who is hitting the baseball really hard early in the season? Sound fair? Let's start with barrel rates which are defined as a batted-ball event that produces a minimum of 95 mph exit velocity.
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Barrels Leaderboard for 2023
There's your top 25 in terms of barrel rate this season among players with a qualified batted-ball event minimum. Of course, this chart ranks the players in barrel per plate appearance. Some names are going to be All-Stars and MVP candidates, but others also stand out as surprises. Let's look at some notable names on this list.
Joey Gallo, OF - Twins
Joey Gallo's fantasy stock had never been lower after a dismal first half with the Yankees in 2022 but he did turn a corner with the Dodgers before landing with the Twins on the open market this winter. The lights are far brighter in New York and Los Angeles than they are in Minnesota and those who believed a quieter environment would yield a bounce-back season from Gallo were right on the money.
The 29-year-old already has three home runs and a double to his credit in seven games on the young season and it's safe to say the underlying data supports him in an enormous manner.
Holy smokes. Gallo sits in the 100th percentile in the keyest of Statcast metrics. His bounce-back season is here in full force.
Wander Franco, SS - Rays
We know Wander Franco is a phenom with elite plate discipline at a very young age, but the power still appeared to be in development mode. His 13 home runs across 153 big-league games in his first two seasons were solid, yet unspectacular. However, the 22-year-old already has three long balls on the season and is clearly mashing the baseball with the sixth-highest barrel rate among qualified Statcast batters.
In order to get into the elite category among fantasy shortstops, you're going to need to hit for significant power. Just look at the improvement Franco has made so far this season in his barrels/plate appearances from his first two seasons.
It's a small sample, of course, with just 26 batted-ball events on the season but the fact he's hitting the ball so hard so often is a major boon to his fantasy stock.
Luke Raley, 1B/OF - Rays
A teammate of Franco's, Luke Raley is a name that clearly is not like the others at the high end of this list. He's not an everyday player as he's made just 16 trips to the plate on the young season but he's doing his darndest to earn more playing time with the way he's punishing the baseball to this point.
He only has 10 batted-ball events to his credit but he's right near the top of this list and many others in the Statcast department. Look at these percentile rankings.
It's also a good sign that Raley hasn't been pull-happy as two of his three home runs are down the left-field line for the lefty-swinging 28-year-old. Three of his four hits on the season have left the ballpark. Put Raley on your fantasy radar as we monitor his playing time moving forward.
Jason Vosler, 1B/3B - Reds
Jason Vosler has largely played first base early in the season with Joey Votto sidelined to begin the year and he's made the most of his opportunity to this point. Here's the fourth straight name on this list with three home runs on the season while he's added a double to his ledger in six games. However, here's a player you might want to put an asterisk next to.
Vosler has just one walk against seven strikeouts in 19 trips to the plate. Furthermore, aside from the barrel rate, his underlying data isn't eye-popping.
The power is there but he hasn't consistently hit the ball hard as per the 40th percentile ranking in hard-hit rate. The 36th percentile ranking in average exit velocity is telling, as well. I'd pump the brakes before making a move to add Vosler at this juncture.
James Outman, OF - Dodgers
The Dodgers have a wonderful problem on their hands in their outfield as Trayce Thompson and James Outman are slugging it out for center-field reps after the latter impressed enough in camp to crack the club's Opening Day roster.
Outman, 25, is much younger than the 32-year-old Thompson and is understandably getting more plate appearances than the veteran. Thompson has three long balls on the season but Outman has two himself along with a pair of triples along with some outstanding supporting data.
We expanded the ranking here to support Outman's playing time moving forward. Not only is he crushing the baseball, he's also playing elite defense alongside a 93rd percentile ranking in spring speed. This is the type of stuff we can use to solidify the notion he will continue to get a ton of playing time in the Dodgers outfield.
If you haven't already, hop on the Outman train before it blows by you.
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