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Kipp Heisterman presents his expert MLB DFS prop picks for Thursday, August 13th. Use these prop picks to win money on Monkey Knife Fight, our partner for all DFS prop picks games.
Baseball season is underway and although there have been some bumps along the way, the show continues to move forward into the 2020 season. Of course, along with MLB 2020 season, comes MLB Monkey Knife Fight Prop Picks. Be sure to check back here regularly to see which picks I am targeting on any given day.
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As it pertains to MLB on MKF, I like to start with pitcher strikeout totals and give a breakdown of my rationale on those first. Next, I will offer up some options to pair with the pitcher totals in case you want to dive into some 3/3, 4/4, or 5/5 type of contests. Friday, August 14th presents a big slate of 14 games to choose from. Some games we can try to take advantage of include the Indians at Tigers, Star Shootout, and Brewers at Cubs.
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Indians @ Tigers: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest - Aaron Civale more than 4.5 strikeouts and Ivan Nova more than 2.5 strikeouts
Civale cost me from hitting on a big-ticket last Friday night, but I am willing to go right back to the well with him vs. the lowly Tigers. The Tigers are a team that strikes out 31.2% vs. right-handed pitching. This number is astronomical and it also ranks dead-last in baseball. Civale has racked up 23 K in his first 19 IP this season and has struck out at least five in every start thus far against teams that do not strikeout as much as the Tigers.
Ivan Nova is going to be a tight play, but the number is so low, that the more than is the only play here. He has gone at least five innings in every start this season and has managed to go over the total in two of his three starts. This matchup vs. the Indians is one where going over 2.5 should happen as long as he is in the game for four to five innings. The Indians have a K rate of 26.9% vs. right-handed pitching, which ranks them fourth-worst in the league. The only area where I draw some pause is with the Indians 12.3% BB rate vs right-handers. Nova has shown a penchant for walking hitters, so he will have to stay in the zone or Cleveland will get him in trouble early.
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Carlos Santana more than 1.5 hits/walks: Santana is a walking machine. He has 17 BB in his last 10 games and has gone over this total six times in those 10 contests. Any time I can get hits/walks prop with Santana, I always like to take the more than. He has also has posted a .381 AVG with 3 BB in 21 AB vs. Nova in his career.
Star Shootout: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest: Jacob deGrom less than 6.5 strikeouts and Gerrit Cole more than 6.5 strikeouts
DeGrom may have trouble reaching this total tonight. He is coming off a start in which he struck out six Marlins, but also complained about an issue with his finger that could have been the formation of a blister. While I am not quite sure what to make of the blister, it does sound like it could pose some risk and that is part of the reason I like the under here. The Phillies also have not struck out much vs. right-handed pitching to begin the season. On the whole, the Phillies have the best K rate in baseball vs. righties with a rate of just 17.3%. While they have missed several games, the rate tells me they are being patient at the plate as they also hold a BB rate of 9.9%, which ties them for 10th in the league. DeGrom has also failed to reach this total in two of his four starts, and both games he reached the total came against the Braves who strikeout 26.1% vs. right-handers.
Fire up Gerrit Cole tonight vs. the Red Sox. Cole has gone over this total in two of his four starts, but now has a matchup vs. the Red Sox who K a lot vs. right-handed pitching. The Sox currently rank sixth-worst in the league with a 26.5% K rate vs. right-handed pitching. They also are not walking enough to make Cole pay for any mistakes as they boast a rate of just 7.9%, which ranks them 21st in the league.
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Brewers @ Cubs: More or Less Contest
More or Less Contest: Brandon Woodruff more than 5.5 strikeouts and Tyler Chatwood more than 4.5 strikeouts
The Brewers and Cubs will meet tonight in a series that pits two teams who strike out a ton vs. each other. Woodruff has gone over this total in two of his four starts, however, one of these starts was not against the Cubs. In that matchup, he just missed the total by one, but I think he can achieve six tonight. The Cubs strike out at a rate of 26.5% vs. right-handed pitching, which is fifth-worst in baseball. It should also be noted that the Cubs' hitters have a combined 20 K in just 69 PA for a K rate of nearly 29%. The Brewers are even worse than the Cubs in terms of K rate vs. righties as they boast a rate of 28.7%, which ranks third-worst in the league. Chatwood has already faced this Brewers team in 2020 and managed to K them eight times across six innings. While he did have a massive hiccup against the Royals in his last start, I am guessing he reverts to a little more of what we saw in his first two starts tonight.
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