Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:

NFL    NBA    MLB

Already have an account? Log in here.

[X]

Forgot Password


[X]

MLB DFS Prop Picks for 7/3/19 - Monkey Knife Fight


As much as I have touted overs on pitcher strikeouts, with some justification, it’s not something to accept blindly.

Sometimes the number is just too big to bank on for that day, or maybe it’s a pitcher who doesn’t – even in this environment – pick up a lot of Ks.

With a full slate of games on Wednesday, of course there will be pitchers who rack up strikeouts, but keep an eye on some that might have a hard time getting to the over. For me, Jason Vargas against the Yankees, Adam Wainwright in Seattle and Walker Buehler against the Diamondbacks are three that look like they could have a hard time getting to their respective overs.

On the other hand, I do like Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish, and Sonny Gray.

Here are some more angles to consider for Wednesday’s baseball action.

Editor's Note: Our friends at Monkey Knife Fight have released the best, most fun, fastest growing DFS props game! It's super simple to play and win real money. Just choose your MLB, NBA, NHL or PGA game, and make your picks! Get a 100% instant deposit bonus up to $50 using promo code: BALLER. That's $50 for free - don't miss out!

Play Now!

 

DETROIT-CHICAGO WHITE SOX

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Nick Castellanos OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – The play is here taking a shot at Tigers hitters against highly-touted White Sox rookie pitcher Dylan Cease, who has skills, but also had a 1.57 WHIP in 15 starts at Triple-A. Castellanos is slugging .449 against right-handed pitching and .538 on the road, so four at-bats with those percentages should give him a good shot at a couple of bases.

MIAMI-WASHINGTON

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Stephen Strasburg OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS – The Nationals starter has recorded at least seven strikeouts in 10 of 17 starts overall, five of eight at home. The Marlins are about average in terms of strikeout rate (23.3%) on the road and Strasburg has struck out 11 and four Marlins, respectively, in his two starts at Miami this season.

 

CHICAGO CUBS-PITTSBURGH

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Yu Darvish OVER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS – The Cubs right-hander has picked up six strikeouts in 10 of 17 starts, including five of eight on the road. He only struck out four Pirates in early April and the Bucs do have the lowest home strikeout rate (18.8%) in the National League.

 

BOSTON-TORONTO

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Rafael Devers OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – The Red Sox third baseman is slugging .548 for the season, which is very good, but after hitting two bombs against the Blue Jays Tuesday, is slugging .818 in his past 16 games, which is ridiculous. Mix in the Blue Jays going with rookie starter Jacob Waguespack, who had a 1.56 WHIP in a dozen games at Triple-A, and Devers should stay hot.

 

MILWAUKEE-CINCINNATI

View Contest

RAPID FIRE

Sonny Gray -1.5 strikeouts vs. Jhoulys Chacin – Gray is averaging 9.9 K/9 both overall and at home, while Chacin is averaging 7.2 K/9 on the road. That gets close to the differential here but Gray has a better chance to work deeper in the game – Chacin has pitched more than five innings once in his past eight starts.

 

N.Y. YANKEES-N.Y. METS

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Jason Vargas UNDER 4.5 STRIKEOUTS – While he’s recently threatened to knock out a reporter, the Mets lefty has managed five or more strikeouts just five times in 14 starts, though he did have a season-high 10 in his last start. Three weeks ago, against the Yankees, Vargas struck out three in six innings.

 

BALTIMORE-TAMPA BAY

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Trey Mancini OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – The Orioles are naturally underdogs at Tampa Bay, but there is still room for Mancini to get his. He’s slugging .570 on the road this year and that plays favorably for a couple of bags in four at-bats.

 

PHILADELPHIA-ATLANTA

View Contest

RAPID FIRE

Ronald Acuna Jr. +0.5 runs + RBI vs. Bryce Harper – Harper is a good player but averaging 1.24 runs plus RBI per road contest while Acuna Jr. is putting up 1.43 runs plus RBI per home game, making it easy to side with underdog Acuna Jr. plus the half.

 

L.A. ANGELS-TEXAS

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Joey Gallo UNDER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – This play is due to Angels rookie starter Griffin Canning, who is better at home than on the road, yet his road WHIP is still 1.10. He just needs to keep Gallo in the park and he’s had more than two total bases in five of his past 15 games.

 

HOUSTON-COLORADO

View Contest

RAPID FIRE

Trevor Story +0.5 runs + RBI vs. Alex Bregman – Even though Story, like most Rockies, is better at home, this is a category that closes the gap. Bregman is averaging 1.14 runs plus RBI per home game, very slightly better than Story’s road average of 1.11 per game, so getting the extra half run with Story is the play.

 

CLEVELAND-KANSAS CITY

View Contest

RAPID FIRE

Jordan Luplow +0.5 total bases vs. Francisco Lindor – Luplow, the rookie first baseman, is slugging .492 on the road and .705 against left-handed pitching (LHP Danny Duffy starts for the Royals). Lindor is slugging .433 on the road and .398 against lefties. Lindor has the brand name, so he’s favored, but getting Luplow plus a half base is a gift.

 

MINNESOTA-OAKLAND

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Matt Olson UNDER 1.5 HITS + WALKS – Oakland’s first baseman is much better on the road, and his home OBP (.282) is awful. He has a .329 OBP against right-handers, which isn’t enough to expect him to reach base multiple times.

 

ARIZONA-L.A. DODGERS

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Walker Buehler UNDER 7.5 STRIKEOUTS – As good as Buehler is, that’s a big number and he’s had eight strikeouts in just five of 16 starts. He did strike out 11 Diamondbacks a month ago, but that’s not enough reason to go against the odds here.

 

SAN FRANCISCO-SAN DIEGO

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Hunter Renfroe OVER 1.5 TOTAL BASES – Slugging .562 at home and .530 against right-handed pitching, the Padres outfielder has a good chance to pick up a couple of bags.

 

ST. LOUIS-SEATTLE

View Contest

OVER/UNDERS

Adam Wainwright UNDER 5.5 STRIKEOUTS – Even though the Mariners have the highest home strikeout rate (26.5%) in baseball, Wainwright has recorded six strikeouts just once in seven road starts this year and has a road ERA of 6.56 with a 1.51 WHIP, so he may not last long enough to get half a dozen strikeouts.

 

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




More Recent Articles

 

Week 7 Chat - Live Fantasy Football Game Day Q&A

It's Sunday Morning Week 7... Do You Know Who to Start? Each Sunday morning of the NFL season, RotoBaller's experts will be moderating the industry's leading live chat room and answering a bunch of your fantasy football questions, from around 10:30 AM to 1:00 PM ET. Come join in on the fun, and get your... Read More


Fantasy Football News and Injuries - Running Updates

Below is a quick-hit list of running notes on relevant injuries and player news, including pre-game reports and live in-game updates. Stay tuned for updates all throughout the week and on Sunday morning game day:   Week 7 Christian Kirk is not expected to play this week. David Johnson (ankle) is expected to play in Week... Read More


Updated Week 7 PPR Rankings (Top 300)

Welcome to Week 7 RotoBallers. Below are our updated consensus Week 7 PPR rankings for fantasy football, including some running notes on relevant injuries, player news and rankings updates: Todd Gurley is officially active, Malcolm Brown is out. Christian Kirk is not expected to play this week. David Johnson (ankle) is expected to play in Week... Read More


Fantasy Football Starts and Sits: Matchups Analysis for Week 7

Welcome to our Week 7 matchup analysis and start/sit column for fantasy football. We'll be covering every single contest from the Sunday slate in one convenient location, helping you make the best decisions for your fantasy lineups. Be sure to check back regularly because this article will be updated as news comes in regarding injuries and other... Read More


Week 7 Start/Sit: Monday Night Football Matchups Analysis

Even if this doesn’t turn out to be great MNF game, at least it's a divisional game with some importance. This is what Jets fans need to tell themselves heading into their second Monday Night Football game of the season. With the New England Patriots coming to town off their annual semi-bye in which they... Read More


Week 7 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups To Target in Week 7

In Week 6, Julio Jones didn't score, but he came through with a decent fantasy day, going over 100-yards receiving. Brandin Cooks brutal Week 6 showing was a little bit of a surprise given his 2018 track record against the 49ers, but the Rams offensive line was overwhelmed which led to a rough day for... Read More


The King's Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Week 7

Welcome to Week 7, RotoBallers! Below you will find some of my spotlight plays and tough lineup decisions for the upcoming week of the fantasy football season. These player selections are based off my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller's NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a... Read More


Week 7 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that bye weeks are in full swing; streaming becomes a more viable and almost necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions throughout the season could easily be the difference in winning a championship. Each week, I... Read More


Week 7 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Below are RotoBaller's Week 7 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 7 of the NFL and fantasy football season. In case you missed it, this is our seventh year now writing this weekly column. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver... Read More


Week 7 Kicker Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Week 6 is done, and we've seen some outstanding games thus far. We've also seen a lot of surprising teams through six weeks. The San Francisco 49ers, after picking in the top 10 for four straight years, are 5-0 with one of the most complete teams in football. As far as kickers go, we're seeing... Read More


Fantasy Football Booms, Busts - Joe Mixon, John Brown, Calvin Ridley

Will Week 7 be a lucky week for fantasy football players? Fantasy players will not have to worry about Jameis Winston throwing interceptions, Baker Mayfield missing receivers by miles, or backup quarterbacks ruining JuJu Smith-Schuster’s fantasy value thanks to their teams being on bye. Fantasy players will still have to win by picking the perfect... Read More


Week 7 Busts? Players To Consider Avoiding

We're almost halfway through the NFL season already. Time really does fly. At this point in the year, you should know whether your fantasy squad is a pretender or contender for a fantasy title. You may only be missing a couple of key pieces. If so, you should certainly consider trading for a player or... Read More


Fantasy Football Rookies to Watch - Darius Slayton, Jakobi Meyers, Josh Oliver

Week 7 is here RotoBallers, which means we're smack dab in the middle of the regular fantasy season! In case you are new to this column, each week we'll highlight a few first-year players who are worth keeping your eye on. Not all of the players listed below are must-starts, but all of them are... Read More


Fleaflicker's Most Added and Dropped: Week 7

Every year and in every sport, a few teams march effortlessly towards the ultimate prize as if it's been preordained. When seemingly invincible teams like these are beaten, it's not always by the quality of their opponent but instead by their own psychological mindset. They look past a lesser opponent and fall victim to the... Read More