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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 4/7/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
We moved away from the pushes and jumped into the win column with a two-fer Tuesday. Despite Dylan Bundy's best efforts, the Astros were able to pull out a ninth inning win from the Angels. Meanwhile, Toronto and Texas did bring their bats out and we cashed the over in the eighth, thanks to a Bo Bichette solo shot. A nice 2-0 day to build some confidence heading into the week.
I'm Steve Janik and I'm here to bring my insight, analysis and picks to help you make informed betting decisions this season. I've been writing up betting picks for RotoBaller since the 2019 NCAA football season and have covered both football and baseball. I am probably most known around these parts for my wild 2020 KBO gambling success when that was the only sport we had to bet on during the COVID shutdowns. I also handicapped some MLB last season, but it didn't end up very well, going 17-24-2 (-9u). Just like everything else with 2020, we want to put that in the past!
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, while I will be carrying the free picks throughout the season with some help from Jamie Steed. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Wednesday, April 7. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 1-1 (-.15u)
O/U Record: 1-1 (-.14u)
Runline Record: 1-0 (+.9u)
First 5 Record: 1-1-2 (-.1u)
Prop Record: 0-0-1
2021 Total Record: 4-3-3 (+.5u)
Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners
O/U: 8.5 | CWS -157, SEA +135
CWS: Dallas Keuchel; SEA: Justin Dunn
The White Sox win when they score runs; a novel concept right? In their three wins this season, they’ve scored six runs or more, including 10 Tuesday night. In their three loses, all four runs or less. Oddly enough, the only White Sox hitter setting the world on fire is Yermin Mercedes and his six RBI with 12 hits hits through 18 at-bats, though this lineup still houses Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, and Tim Anderson. Not to mention, Yasmani Grandal should return to the lineup after Tuesdays’s rest day. The switch-hitting catcher has a career slash line of .242/.365/.423 with 120 of his 150 career home runs against RHP. Juicy!
Dunn had a solid rookie season in 2020, posting a 4-1 record with 4.34 ERA over 10 starts or 45.2 innings. However, digging deeper, there's some cause for concern. A 6.23 xFIP and a 15.7 BB% are eye-popping bad and his .179 BABIP is completely unsustainable. Statcast verifies those concerns, as the former 26th ranked prospect finished in the 44th percentile or worse in every major sabermetric tracked by the database. In layman's terms, bad things are likely coming this year.
With the White Sox getting Grandal back, it will be a big bump to the lineup that is already filled with guys who can make a "splash" at the dish. Dunn is a young prospect who isn't much more than a serviceable back-end of the rotation arm, so expect this experienced Chicago offense to take advantage.
Pick: White Sox Team Total Over 4.5 (-110, Barstool Sportsbook) 1 Unit
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 8 | Cin -220, PIT +185
PIT: Chad Kuhl; CIN: Luis Castillo
Tuesday proved to be how big of a disaster this Pirates team is. A 14-1 loss often gets thrown to the side, but it won't be the first time that happens this year. They needed six pitchers, including one position player to pitch Tuesday. Chad Kuhl is a solid SP4/5 on a playoff caliber team, but the fact that he's Pittsburgh's 1/2 says everything. On opening day, he lasted just three frames, allowing just one earned run while walking three and striking out two. The offense to back him up is devoid of talent, especisslly with Ke'Bryan Hayes (hand) on the IL. Colin Moran has some pop and Bryan Reynolds is solid, but that doesn't equate to a major league lineup. Against RHP on the road in 2020, the Pirates held a .253 wOBA, 29 K%, and 55 wRC+, all MLB lows.
In my Opening Day article, I highlighted how much better Castillo has been at home over his career, and while he looked off on in the season opener, history speaks for itself. The 28-year-old has finished in the 80th percentile or better in xERA, K%, xSLG, and xwOBA, in each of the last two years. It's possible we see some off days for the Reds' regulars after they took the first two games of the series, but there is enough fire power in this lineup, including the on-fire Nick Castellanos who is hitting .474 with six extra-base hits, that Kuhl will still have his hands full.
The Pirates will fight to be the worst team in baseball, and now they're going against arguably the most dominant pitcher in the NL Central (might not be saying much?). Save a few Cincy bats getting a day off, their lineup will still be able to provide more than Pittsburgh's; but don't get me wrong in that Kuhl is a respectable arm, but if tough to imagine him, and the mess of a bullpen behind him, competing in this hitter friendly park.
Pick: Reds -1.5 (+104, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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