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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 6/29/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Welcome to another day of RotoBaller’s free MLB Betting Picks. Our betting team is here to bring you top notch insight, including analysis, trends, stats, and more!
A full disclaimer that I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
This will be my last MLB Betting article for awhile. Between getting married, going on a honeymoon, and dealing with some family things, this July will possibly be the busiest month of my entire life thus far. For where we have been over the last year-plus, I’m very grateful to have the opportunity to do all of these things coming up, and sometimes with all of the things going in our lives we forget to just sit back and enjoy it all, which is why I’m taking this whole month off from writing. However, I love this Rotoballer team and am blessed to be a part of it! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 because I’m always around and will occasionally post some plays too. Below are my MLB betting plays for Tuesday, June 29th. Let's make some money and have fun, but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 5-7 (-2.57u)
- O/U Record: 10-10-2 (-0.97u)
- Runline Record: 6-5 (+2.07u)
- First 5 Record: 9-7-3 (+.53u)
- Prop Record: 3-6-1 (-2.86u)
- 2021 Total Record: 33-35-6 (-3.8u)
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
O/U: 7.5 | MIL -225 CHC +200
Chicago: Zach Davies; Milwaukee: Brandon Woodruff
Davies has shown some signs of brilliance in June, posting three scoreless starts across 18.2 innings. However, mixed in there are two more June outings where he gave up 12 runs in 10.1 IP; this is the Zach Davies experience. His road splits are rough, with a 4.50 ERA, and despite allowing just one homer, he’s served up 14 doubles, walked 24 hitters (just 28 K), leading to a .254/.373/.396 opponent slash line.
The NL Central leading Milwaukee Brewers haven't had an issue scoring runs lately, scoring 34 runs in their last four games, all at American Family Field. They’ve been getting production from all levels of the lineup, including Keston Hiura, who is climbing out of a early season drought. Overall, their numbers against RHP at home have increased since June started, raising their wRC+ by 15 points to 112, boosting their walk rate to 11%, and carrying a .210 ISO since June 1.
The Brewers have a great spot here against a streaky pitcher in Zach Davies. They’re huge favorites in their home park, against a pitcher who struggles on the road, so I’m loving the value on their team total here.
Pick: Brewers Team Total Over 45 (+105, BetMGM) 1 Unit
Tampa Bay Rays at Washington Nationals
O/U: 9 | WSH -112 TBR +100
Tampa Bay: Rich Hill: Washington: Joe Ross
For 41 years old, Hill has been quite stellar in 2021, especially considering his rough start. He allowed four runs in each of his first four starts, but since then he has allowed just 14 runs over 60.1 IP with a 64/24 K/BB while allowing just six home runs. The 2.09 WEA in that stretch is fantastic but the 4.21 xFIP in its there’s some luck involved, though still a respectable number. Offensively, Tampa Bay has been strong against RHP since May 1, posting a .238/.333/.422 slash line, but the .329 wOBA and 113 wRC+ put them among the better lineups in the league when facing a righty.
Ross has been as boom or bust as it gets this season, posting six scoreless outings, scattered amongst four starts where he’s allowed at least four or more. His home splits are rough, posting a 5.74 ERA, which is 2.5 points higher than on the road, and his wOBA his nearly one whole point higher at home as well. It’s rare we see negative home/road splits for pitchers but Ross is one of those occasions. The Nats’ lineup has had their struggles this year as well, and LHP are part of that struggle. Since May 1, when facing southpaws, Washington has just a .130 ISO, a .302 wOBA and just an 88 wRC+, and those numbers are nearly identical at home, so this matchup against the lefty, Hill, isn’t a great one.
Theres not much more needed to add that I didn’t include above, however, the Rays’ bullpen has been one of the best in baseball, planting a 2.36 ERA, .258 wOBA, and a 30 K%. Back the Rays on Tuesday.
Pick: Rays ML (+100, Draftkings) 1 Unit
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