MLB Betting Picks for Sunday 7/18 - Totals, Run Lines, and Money Lines

Thunder Dan Palyo recommends betting picks for the MLB slate on 7/18/2021. He breaks down each team's situation and suggests the top picks on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!

Welcome back, RotoBallers, to another MLB betting picks article and it feels good to have major league baseball back after a nice little break this week. We have a great slate of games and hopefully, I can pick us some winners and make this a profitable Sunday!

If you follow me for DFS coverage, don't worry - I bet on baseball just about every day, too! Just to let you know, I mainly bet on FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone is able to bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.

We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering, to go along with our awesome premium betting tools. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Jamie Steed (@Baseball_Jimbo) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight and PrizePicks DFS prop picks.

Thunder Dan's 2021 MLB Betting Picks

Last Week: 1-1

Season to Date: 10-11

I hit one of my two first fives last week and was a little tilted because the Phillies game stayed under the full game total - even without Aaron Nola pitching, but the first five under missed as the Phillies got some unlikely production from a random bench player Ronald Torreyes, who hit a homer and had three of Philly's six hits in the game. On to this week we go!

Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals

O/U: 10 | Moneyline: KCR -140

BAL: Matt Harvey| KCR: Carlos Hernandez

There's nothing like betting on a battle between bad teams, right? This game has some strong indicators for the over, and not to give it away too early but that's where this is heading.

The Orioles are tossing out the corpse of Matt Harvey here today, and the poor guy just continues to get pummeled every time they make him take the hill. Meanwhile, the Royals are rolling with relief pitcher Carlos Hernandez, who has made only one start this season as he pitched 3.2 innings against the Reds last week. Hernandez pitched well in that start, but still brings a 4.98 ERA and 1.71 WHIP overall this year into this game.

The real key here is the bullpens - both teams' pens have been pretty bad this season and are likely to be asked to pitch half or more of this game. Harvey never lasts long and Hernandez isn't stretched out. So far in this series, these teams have combined for 11 and 12 runs and I think today they could go even higher than that. So rather than pick a winning side here, let's just roll with the over at 10 runs and hope these offenses continue to pummel some bad pitching.

Pick: Game Total OVER 10 runs (-105 DraftKings Sportsbook)

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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.

Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah

— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves

O/U: 9 | Moneyline: ATL -105

TBR: Rich Hill | ATL: Drew Smyly

This is going to be my riskier pick of the day, but I am not going to write up a bunch of easy picks that are all juiced up and not worth the return. The Braves are looking to take this interleague series today after dropping the opener 7-6 on Friday and then hammering the Rays last night 9-0. Their offense has looked good so far since the break and the addition of Joc Pederson to the lineup brings some much-needed power as they prepare for life after Ronald Acuna Jr.

This comes down to the pitching matchup for me, and while neither of these guys are very good pitchers anymore, I have more faith in the Braves bats against old man, Rich Hill (aka Dick Mountain) than I do the Tampa bats against Smyly. If you've ever read any of my DFS or betting content before, you know that I have been playing lefties against Tampa Bay for several months now and did so successfully again last night as Max Fried cruised through seven innings and shut out the Rays with seven strikeouts.

Despite being at home, the books have the Braves as slight dogs, and I will take the better odds on them in a game that is basically a pick 'em. The Rays have the better pen, but I feel pretty good about Smyly's matchup and the Braves offense. Let's roll with the Braves ML here at some solid odds.

Pick: Atlanta ML (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook

Good luck, RotoBallers, and enjoy the All-Star break! Stay tuned for more great MLB analysis during the break and more DFS and betting content later in the week!

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