RADIO
Well, what a day we had yesterday! The Braves beat the Nationals and all three of our picks hit (+100, +100 and -133) before the A's made us sweat but Starling Marte came up clutch with a walk-off homer to bag us the -127 pick as well. Kyle Gibson failed to reach six strikeouts as we expected but unfortunately, Caleb Smith was knocked out of the game early so couldn't hit the over himself. But still, 3.82 units of profit on 5.5 units of outlay which is a 169% return. It was certainly nice to be on Lady Luck's good side for a change.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Daily articles covering a range of picks are available and you can always hit up any of the team on Twitter (@BellRoto, @stevejanik6, @LucidMediaDFS, @kipppsta, @MarkStrausberg, @Mark_Kieffer, @ThunderDanDFS and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo). Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 6-9 (-3.60 U)
- O/U Record: 10-13-1 (-2.55 U)
- Runline Record: 3-6 (-0.35 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 6-13 (-5.37 U)
- Prop Record: 18-17 (+1.23 U)
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
O/U: 10.5 | Moneyline: PIT +155, OAK -180
PIT: Mitch Keller | CIN: Vladimir Gutierrez
The Reds comprehensively took Friday night’s game 10-0 after a seven-run first inning. Thursday night was a similar story when the Reds took game one of the series 7-4 after taking a seven-run lead in the second inning before the Pirates put up four runs in the fifth but ultimately couldn’t mount an unlikely comeback.
The Reds are 8-2 over their last ten games and are now just 2.5 games out of an NL wildcard spot. They’re also now 7-1 against the Pirates this year and have scored 68 runs in those eight games (8.5 per game), while scoring ten or more in four of their prior contests.
Last night’s loss leaves the Pirates with a 41-69 record (second-worst in the NL) and an 18-39 record on the road. Their -166 run differential is the second-worst in MLB and their 400 runs scored is fewest in the Majors. I’m not expecting things to get any better for them tonight.
Keller will be making his 14th start for the Pirates this year and comes into today with a 7.05 ERA (52.1 IP). He’s failed to get through more than five innings in any start this year and after being optioned back to Triple-A in June, this will be his second start since his return to the Majors. His last start was Sunday in which he allowed four earned runs in five innings against the Phillies.
Keller has faced the Reds once already this season and completed just 3.1 IP while giving up seven earned runs. Gutierrez has yet to face the Pirates and will look to build on his last two starts in which he’s tallied 13.1 IP and allowed just three runs (against the Cubs and Mets). His 4.39 ERA on the year is solid enough but his 5.68 xFIP and 5.51 SIERA do suggest regression is likely.
Even if the Pirates manage to score some runs against the Reds rookie starter, the Reds offense should still be far too much for Keller and the Pirates. Since the All-Star Break, the Pirates have an 84 wRC+ which is 29th in MLB while the Reds 120 wRC+ is second best.
The total run line is set pretty high at 10.5 and even the first five innings is set at 5.5. Whilst both are appealing, I can see the Reds scoring a bunch of runs but shutting out the Pirates again winning by a scoreline of something like 8-0. However, it’s difficult for me to see the Pirates scoring enough runs that if the Reds offense only put up four or five runs, the over could still hit. So I’m sticking to another comprehensive Reds win.
Pick: Runline - Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+100) 2 Units
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: ARI +250, SDP -290
ARI: Taylor Widener | SDP: Yu Darvish
Despite being 9-9 since the All-Star Break, the Padres offense has been productive, with a 114 wRC+ which ranks fifth in the Majors. That’s largely in part to them putting up 41 runs in their first three games of the season’s second-half but they have scored 25 runs in their four games this month and 49 in their last ten games (4.9 per game).
The Diamondbacks have the worst record in MLB (35-76) but did take game one of the series on Friday night 8-5 and have now scored 24 runs in their five games this week (4.8 per game). These two have played each other ten times now this year and have combined for 102 runs in their games (10.2 per game) while their last five contests have totaled 64 runs (12.8 per game).
Widener will be making his tenth start of the season and he has a 5.05 ERA from his previous nine outings. He did face the Padres back on April 04th and threw six shutout innings but has allowed five runs in each of his last three starts (12.2 IP). Two of those three starts came against the Rangers and Pirates so has struggled against teams much less potent than the Padres.
Darvish meanwhile has struggled lately too with a 7.36 ERA since July 01st (five starts). His last start prior to that run came against the Diamondbacks and saw Darvish go 6.0 IP while allowing just one earned run, so he'll be hoping to get back on track today and give the Padres beleaguered rotation a much-needed boost.
Given the way both starting pitchers have been recently and how many runs these two teams have scored in their contests this year, the total runs line looks a little light. The Padres can run up a big score on any given day and the Diamondbacks offense has at least been respectable this year. We'll take over eight runs knowing it's a wash if the eight total runs are reached.
Pick: Total runs - Over 8 (-105) 1.5 Units
Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: LAA +250, LAD -320
LAA: Jaime Barria | LAD: Julio Urias
Last week the Angels bagged us an easy win when we took the under in their game against the A's. That was largely in part due to Barria and how the odds looked like they were set because he had a 6.23 ERA. If you remember, I pointed out that his ERA was due to his relief appearance on April 10th in which he allowed seven runs in two innings. That prompted a demotion to the Minor Leagues and Barria has since returned as a starter.
Following his recall, Barria went 7.0 IP and allowed just two runs, then last weekend he shut out the A's over 6.2 IP and now comes into this game with a 4.12 ERA. For the Dodgers, Urias continues to flourish and has a 3.40 ERA over 22 starts while having a career-high 129.2 IP. In his six starts since July 01st, Urias has a 1.98 ERA and the only time he gave up more than one run in any of those starts came at Coors Field.
Offensively, the Dodgers haven't quite hit the heights expected of them and rank 10th in wRC+ (106) since the All-Star Break. That's considerably better than the Angels who rank 28th in wRC+ (86) in that time frame. The Angels did manage to take game one last night, beating the Dodgers 4-3 in ten innings.
The Angels have only scored 78 runs in 21 games (3.71 per game) since the All-Star Break as they continue to struggle without Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon and Jared Walsh. The Dodgers have played 19 games since the All-Star Break, scoring 94 runs (4.95 per game). They did score 24 of those runs in three games at Coors field and without that series, they've averaging 4.38 runs per game in that timeframe.
Both starting pitchers have been good, Urias over a full season while Barria has impressed in his two starts. The Dodgers have been good offensively, not great while the Angels have really struggled without so many key players and although the total run line is a bit low, I still feel confident enough that it hits.
Pick: Total runs - Under 8.5 (+100) 1 Unit
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