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Steve Janik's MLB betting picks for 4/16/2021. He breaks down today's MLB slate and recommends the top wagers and bets on money lines, totals, run lines, and more!
Big thanks to Frank Ammirante for covering for me Thursday. My last night out, Wednesday, was a busy one and there was no shot I was going to be able to get an article written out for Thursday’s slate. It was probably for the best, following my most recent 0-2 clunker. Naturally, I'm looking for a fresh start heading into the weekend!
By now, most of you have been reading these already so you know where I'm coming from and how long I've been writing up betting picks. I'm not even close to a professional, but I thoroughly enjoy doing research and making what I see to be educated picks. There's a lot of different bets to take action on nowadays, and I look over every prop, total, runline, etc. to try and find some value. I will say it's tough to find props available up until a few hours before first pitch, so check out my Twitter below for any adds not in the article.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell will be handling things over in our premium offering, while I will be carrying the free picks throughout the season with some help from Jamie Steed. Early on in the season, my plays will be smaller in volume, as we have very little info on teams and players. As things start to progress, expect to see more action. Follow me on Twitter @stevejanik6 this baseball season for some fun banter and also extra plays! Below are my plays for Friday, April 16. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
Moneyline Record: 1-3 (-2.15u)
O/U Record: 3-2 (+.76u)
Runline Record: 2-4 (+1u)
First 5 Record: 2-1-2 (+.75u)
Prop Record: 0-2-1 (-2u)
2021 Total Record: 8-12-3 (-4.7u)
Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers
O/U: 8.5 | TEX -128 BAL +117
Baltimore: Jorge Lopez; Texas: Mike Foltynewicz
Lopez hasn't exactly had the most prolific career, boasting a record of 9-19 with a 6.23 ERA, and things haven't started any stronger in 2021, following tough outings against the Yankees and Red Sox where he let up four and seven runs, respectively, in less than five innings of work. The 28-year-old struggles with control, but has a decent changeup that he doesn't throw enough, and also gets hitters to chase at a solid 30% clip. The offense behind him has struggled mightily to push runs across, including Thursday's double header where they plated just three runs in both games. They hit RHP well last season, but in '21 they have just a .272 wOBA, .125 ISO, and are striking out at a 29% clip.
Foltynewicz is in his first year with Texas and has been middling to open the season. He's 0-2, but gave up just two runs (one earned) his last time out against the Padres. His command seems to be wavering, walking six batters through 11 innings and he's also served u three homers already. The righty is getting hit very hard but has a solid matchup to try and right the ship on Friday. Unfortuantely for him, the Rangers offense has been having their fair share of issues as well. For a lineup that boasts lefty sluggers Joey Gallo and Nate Lowe, the team has just a .131 ISO and 17 extra-base hits against RHP, and things aren't better in their new, pitcher-friendly ballpark.
This game is gross all around, but these lineups are really struggling right now. Lopez and Foltynewicz aren't good pitchers, but they've shown enough that they'll be able to challenge their opponents Friday. Baltimore got some bullpen help, thanks to Thursday's double dip but Texas had to use a few guys, going into extras. I still think the pitching shows precedent in this one and the offenses continue to struggle.
Pick: Under 8.5 (+102, Draftkings) 1 Unit
Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City Royals
The Blue Jays-Royals game has been postponed due to weather
O/U: 8.5 | TOR -117 KC +102
Toronto: Steven Matz; Kansas City: Mike Minor
Matz has been impressive through his first two starts in a Jays uniform. Allowing just two earned runs, on seven hits, with a 13/4 K/BB over 12.1 IP, it will be interesting to see if the southpaw has put his injured Mets past behind him. He’s pounding the zone (51 Zone%) and limiting hard contact but doesn’t seem to be fooling guys with just a 23 Chase %. He’ll look for continued run support by the offense, as the Blue Jays have scored 21 runs in his two starts. However, they’ve struggled against LHP this year, holding down a .295 wOBA with a .100 ISO. Obviously, it’s a limited sample, and there is upside here, but it’s worth noting their early struggles.
Minor was better his second time out, allowing just one run over four innings against the White Sox. The 33-year-old is doing a decent job of limiting hard contact, but the 21 degree launch angle will need to come down. He’s pounding the zone as well and also drawing swing-and-misses in the box at a 29% rate. The offense behind him has been solid vs LHP thus far, boasting a .359 wOBA with an .846 OPS and 17 runs scored. A number that will be tested is their low 18 K% versus LHP, so we’ll see if Matz can punch out the stubborn Royals.
Neither side has been struggling to score runs, with both averaging over five per game in the L3, but Kansas City has plated an average of six rpg at home. Also, considering their better, early track record against LHP, I think KC is able to stymie Matz and hold on for a lower-scoring victory.
Pick: Kansas City ML (+102, Fanduel) 1 Unit
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